after a tough 2025, where does real estate go next in Metro Vancouver?

The rennie podcast is about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Tune in for monthly discussions making sense of the latest market data.

EPISODE #84: AFTER A TOUGH 2025, WHERE DOES REAL ESTATE GO NEXT IN METRO VANCOUVER?

Join Ryan Berlin (Head Economist and VP Intelligence), Ryan Wyse (Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst), and rennie President Greg Zayadi as they reflect on a difficult year for housing and look ahead to what may come next. They discuss record-low sales, elevated listings, and a soft rental market, alongside labour market shifts and interest rate expectations. Greg brings a long-view perspective on how this moment compares to past cycles, why this slowdown does not look like 2008, and what confidence, patience, and preparation mean for buyers, sellers, and developers as 2026 begins.

Featured guests:
Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence
Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager
Greg Zayadi, President of rennie

We’d love to answer your real estate questions. Email us at intel@rennie.com or leave a voicemail, and we’ll try to respond in future episodes. 

Transcript

And so as we expected, we finished the year with just over 35,000 total sales, 12% less than the year before, fewest since at least 2005.

What was the population growth over a 20-year period?

If we're gonna grow the housing stock, we have to figure out a way to deliver apartments and condos. That's the reality of our region.

You know, it's, it's interesting. Everyone will talk about a supply problem, an affordability problem, and that's where I always drive back to the like, "Well, what do we mean?"

So we had more than 99,000 new listings last year, the most ever, going back to 2005.

I have a terrible analogy, which I-

Bring it

... have not said in public before.

All right, kick off the podcast then. [laughing] Let's go. [upbeat music]

Ryan Berlin: Welcome to the rennie Podcast. I'm Ryan Berlin, Vice President of Intelligence and Head Economist at rennie, and as always, I'm joined by Ryan Wyse, our Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst with Intel. Ry, how you doing?

Ryan Wyse: Great.

Ryan Berlin: Good.

Ryan Wyse: Happy to be here.

Ryan Berlin: Good. As always, you have to be here, though. [laughing]

Ryan Wyse: But I'm happy to. [laughing]

Ryan Berlin: [laughing] You have to, and you're happy about it.

Ryan Wyse: And not just 'cause Greg's here.

Ryan Berlin: That's awesome.

Ryan Wyse: [laughing]

Ryan Berlin: And then, so that's who we're joined... We are joined by Greg Zayadi, President. You don't like calling yourself president.

Greg Zayadi: I can't stand it.

Ryan Berlin: What do you like to call you?

Greg Zayadi: The fact that like you're like, "Oh, vice president, manager," like you are both smarter than me, so who cares about what the titles are?

Ryan Berlin: No, this- I mean, it just... The titles don't, the titles don't matter.

Greg Zayadi: They do not.

Ryan Berlin: We're just-

Greg Zayadi: It's good people

Ryan Berlin:... we're workers.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Do you know what my kids call me? Do you know what my- when people say, "What do you..." When, when my, my kids' friends say, "What does your dad do?" They say, "He's a rennie worker." I'm not kidding. So we're-

Greg Zayadi: Lana, my wife, tells me, "You're not at the office anymore, so check that title at the door." [laughing]

Ryan Berlin: [laughing] Okay, before we get into, like, the meat and potatoes of this, why don't you tell... I mean, everyone knows who you are. If you're in the industry, you know Greg Zayadi.

Greg Zayadi: Maybe.

Ryan Berlin: For, for Bob and Nancy, who are out there listening, watching, who's Greg Zayadi? What's the coles notes version of your career arc to this pinnacle of being on the rennie Podcast here?

Greg Zayadi: 25 years. It's, um... I grew up on the North Shore. Uh, I went to Western back east. Um, and I've been in real estate for 25 years. Half of that time's actually been with rennie. I, I, I have had the incredibly good fortune to work for some of the most amazing companies in this city: ONNI, Anthem. I actually worked with Sotheby's a bit, with Ross Macrede. Um, I have worked at rennie twice in my career now, which has been, uh, an amazing run. So I have gotten to work with Eric Carlson, Rosano DeCotis, uh, Bruno Wall, Rick Ilitch. Like, for our city, I've had such a great opportunity to connect and be part of so many amazing discussions, and learn from so many great people. And, um, it's been really exciting to spend half that time with Bob and Kris, and, and be part of the rennie company, and just get to kind of, like, really mesh social, professional- ... intellectual in this city. And, and I'm even more excited now, because, you know, it's certainly been a rough go, and what I've really been learning in the last year, year and a bit, as, as we've been actively kind of outside of our own, uh, echo chamber, that is the Lower Mainland, that is BC, and I think we can, we can try to talk about a little bit of this, is, my God, we are good at what we do. I don't care if it's construction, development, finance, sales, and marketing, we know real estate.

Ryan Berlin: That's okay.

Greg Zayadi: At everything!

Ryan Berlin: Mm.

Greg Zayadi: The people we have, the processes we have, the platforms we use, world-class is an understatement. Um, you know, the call I was on before this was about partnering on stuff in New York. So yeah, that's- I don't know, that's-

Ryan Berlin: [chuckles]

Greg Zayadi: ... kind of who I am. I just have fun with this stuff and like hanging out.

Ryan Berlin: It's the mecca for real estate, and maybe that's more, that's more clear to you now, now that you've... You're having more conversations with people in other cities, that we kind of, maybe the, the, uh, default positions kind of look up to these cities. They seem like they're- they have a bigger presence on the world stage.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: They have a bigger population.

Greg Zayadi: Older cities and-

Ryan Berlin: They're American. Yeah, older cities, but Vancouver holds its own.

Greg Zayadi: It, it, it absolutely does. I mean, you know, [exhaling] LA, San Francisco, Seattle. You know, I, I always find it amazing, right, we're looking at stuff in, uh, in, uh, Oahu-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Greg Zayadi: ... in, in Hawaii, and you go, "Holy crap, that's a city of a million people." Like, it's a big deal. Um, but, you know, you, you, you look around and you realize that, call it an MBA, call it a microcosm, we've had such an opportunity to do it over, and over, and over again.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: It's not about years of experience that we have, it's about the amount of times we've done what we do over, and over, and over again.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Greg Zayadi: And it's very cool. Like, I mean, it, it's really nice to, to be proud of what we do and the city we do it, and now start to see where that impacts everywhere else. And, and certainly our industry knows that whether it's in San Diego, LA, Seattle, Bellevue, Phoenix, Austin, Texas, Vancouver has their fingerprint on those cities. Vancouver developers, Vancouver money, Vancouver-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Greg Zayadi: ... expertise is embedded there. Toronto, Montreal, you name it.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: And that's cool.

Ryan Berlin: It is cool. And, I mean, that, that applies across the, the new home, the pre-sale, resale, and rental-

Greg Zayadi: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... spaces, and we wanna talk about each of those today. And I know, Greg, you don't want us to have a structure-

Greg Zayadi: [laughing]

Ryan Berlin: ... but we have a, we have a structure.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: We're gonna try to follow it.

Greg Zayadi: We can. We brought some data, of course.

Ryan Berlin: So we'll-

Greg Zayadi: I'll do- [laughing]

Ryan Berlin: You, Ryan and Ryan go at it. I'll, I'll stop talking.

Greg Zayadi: You chime in. No, no, no, you chime in.

Ryan Berlin: You're here to talk. But yeah, there's a, there's a... We wanna run through some data for, um, the year that was last year. Where did we end up?

Greg Zayadi: Do I have to agree with it all? No, of course not.

Ryan Berlin: Uh, you, you don't have to agree. We want your perspective.

Greg Zayadi: [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: And actually, I want you to talk about pre-sale. We'll talk about, uh, rental as well. We got a, a nice pre-Christmas, uh, present from CMHC there, uh, an update on the rental market. A lot of interesting, um, data elements and insights, um, that, that we've gleaned from that. And then we wanna talk about-... what we see ahead of us for this year and beyond. I will say, the three of us here shoot the breeze on the market every day.

Greg Zayadi: Damn right.

Ryan Berlin: We now have- we have cameras and mics in front of us, but let's just have that conversation that we have each and every day right here. Um,

Ryan Berlin: I guess I was gonna ask you for opening thoughts, anecdotes, grievances, but you gave us- you didn't give us grievances- [laughing] ... but you gave us the others, so.

Greg Zayadi: A little bit.

Ryan Berlin: Let's, um, let's jump in. So, uh, 2025, Ry, obviously, tough year for the industry here in Vancouver. I would say that also applies to, um, other markets that we're in here in BC, Kelowna, Victoria, and more broadly, markets across this country and, and in the US as well. Um, stuck in the mud for a whole bunch of reasons. What is... What's your take, what's the official word on how we wrapped 2025 from a resale market perspective?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, I'd say December, more of the same. So, I mean, December is not a busy month to begin with, but, you know, we had fewer than 2,400 sales, which is 11% less than 2024. That was a slow year.

Ryan Berlin: That was for Pemberton, right?

Ryan Wyse: Yes.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Abbotsford, Pemberton.

Ryan Wyse: So the two board areas, the Vancouver board area and the Fraser Valley board area.

Greg Zayadi: Which is, what? About 50% of the overall... I was in this discussion-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

 Greg Zayadi: ... just recently with, uh, with Elve over at Anthem, um, 'cause she was questioning the thing I put out, but that is what we're always referencing, right, is Pemberton to Abbotsford-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Greg Zayadi: ... which is significant, but it still actually was only 50% of the transactions throughout BC last year.

Ryan Wyse: And that's pretty typical.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: It's about half, half the province. Um, but yeah-

Greg Zayadi: You can tell the tale

Ryan Wyse: ... for, for us, the functional region goes out there, like the Fraser Bor- Fraser Valley board area includes Surrey. Surrey is a very important part of this market.

Greg Zayadi: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: And if you just look at the Vancouver board area, you're missing a lot of the population, a lot of the transactions.

Ryan Berlin: You're missing half of the, the town home and detached home-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... transactions as well.

Ryan Wyse: The real market.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. [laughing] Well, the real homes.

Greg Zayadi: The real homes for real people.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, so it was about 23% below average. Most of the year has been in that range, and so as we expected, we finished the year with just over 35,000 total sales, 12% less than the year before. Fewest since at least 2005, probably much more, but our data set purely goes back to 2005. 30% below average for the year. So average was, past decade average was, like, 50. Now, with this added in, it's more like-

Ryan Berlin: I think it's 47,000.

Greg Zayadi: 47.

Ryan Berlin: Last 10-year average.

Greg Zayadi: And I, and what I always find interesting about that is, like, we're... You, you say we're going back 20-plus years.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: What was the population growth over a 20-year period?

Ryan Berlin: Well-

Greg Zayadi: How many more people joined our region?

Ryan Berlin: I mean, this region between 1991 and, and 2016, 'cause I have this number off the top of my head, the region's population doubled, right? So we have, I mean, call it twice as many people, roughly twice as many homes. So really what we should be doing is, is population or, or, or-

Greg Zayadi: Population-adjusted basis

Ryan Berlin: ... Yeah. Well, exactly, and the, and the picture... So to have your slowest year in sales in a growing region today means it was a really slow year.

Ryan Wyse: A really slow year. Really slow for sales, but not for listings. There's my segway.

Greg Zayadi: Nice. [laughing]

Ryan Wyse: So we had more than 99,000 new listings last year, the most ever going back to 2005, but probably ever.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Um, didn't hit 100,000. So a lot of that ends up being expiries that got relisted or cancellations, price changes, got relisted, but not so much so-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... like, we just had a whole bunch of product come to market that ultimately didn't transact. Uh, and so we finished the year with more than 18,000 active listings at the end of the year, which is the most since 2008.

Greg Zayadi: And that- but that came off, right? We peaked, we peaked in mid-October at about, uh-

Ryan Wyse: 20-

Greg Zayadi: ... 26,000.

Ryan Wyse: Which is typical seasonality.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Then we get the New Year's drop, so every year from December 31st to January 1st, we get a big drop. So we had a huge one this year because the base was so high.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: So, uh, w- it dropped to just over 16,200, which is a 13% decline in one day.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Uh, the year before, 11, year before 12. That's, like, typical seasonality.

Ryan Berlin: Do you remember back in, uh, it must have been 2021 to '22?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, we picked up on the-

Ryan Berlin: We ended the year... December 31st, we had 6,600, 6,600 listings, and it dropped to 6,000-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... on January 1st.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: So it was only a 600 listing drop, but on a [laughing] base of 6,600.

Greg Zayadi: And historically, we, we, we sort of... I- it's been so much fun over, honestly, the last 10 years, how we've gotten so dialed into this. And I, I know you and I, we were teasing each- I was teasing Ryan over, uh, Christmas, that, um, we can't get away with rounding anymore. Like, we know the data so freaking well.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: Like, I go back to the days when UDI would, like, put out the, like, "What's your prediction of..." Like, what a joke. Like, we could nail that within, like, you know, such a percentage. So, you know, uh, that-

Ryan Berlin: It's a blessing and a curse.

Greg Zayadi: It is a blessing [laughing] and a curse. But, you know, one of the other stats, one of the other things that I think is, seems consistent and interesting is it's that drop, and then i- it's about, what? 30 to 50% increase-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Greg Zayadi: ... typically-

Ryan Wyse: That's right

Greg Zayadi: ... in the first 90 days of the year. So if we're sitting at 16,000, we're projecting what? Anywhere from another

Greg Zayadi: 5, 6 to 8,000 listings coming on the market, new activity, net of sales-

Ryan Wyse: Yep

Greg Zayadi: ... in the next 90 days.

Ryan Berlin: It'll ramp up.

Greg Zayadi: So we're gonna be back up at 23-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Greg Zayadi: ... to 24,000 before we know it.

Ryan Wyse: And we're a week into January, and it's already started.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: So the, the seasonality with listings and inventory is, is there.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: It's, it's already starting to happen.

Ryan Berlin: In the presale market, so Greg, your thoughts. Um, we know the data's not fully in for Q4. We have a good sense for how, how the year went. What's your take on the year that was?

Greg Zayadi: Yeah, I mean, it's interesting, right? When we, we, we always tether the presale market and resale market together, and, and they sort of... They, they almost, like, pull each other in opposite directions at times. So, you know, really, what we know is the presale market's gonna do about 6,100 new presales. I guess what's-

Ryan Berlin: Last year.

Greg Zayadi: Last year.

Ryan Berlin: Last year.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah, in 2025, 2020... Or 6,100 new presales. And what's getting very interesting about that is now dissecting that further. You could dissect it by concrete and wood frame, and we can talk about that. But the new reality-... is how is that actually impacting the delivery of inventory or the underlying economics of the industry? And of those 6,100 listings, right, primarily what we're starting to focus on is empty, unsold condos.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: Developer-owned-  

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

 Greg Zayadi: ... standing inventory, and that's probably a third of it. I'm gonna guess about 2,000 sales were done in that bucket. Then another third, 2,000 units, were probably sold in stuff that's actually under construction. These are financed. These are ready to go. They're, they're off and running. The last third, 2,000, is what we all historically think of when we see presale. You launch a building-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Greg Zayadi:... you sell some homes within 12 months, you amend your disclosure, [snaps fingers] and away you go under construction.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: So of the, what we're, we're, we're gonna guesstimate 65 projects launched this year, which is, you know, basically half or not less of the 10-year average-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Greg Zayadi: ... of over 150. 65 projects equated to about 7,000 units sold, or 7,000 units released, and only 2,000 of those sold.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: Well, half those projects probably are not moving forward with financing. So that is a very different story than we've seen in the past when we were averaging 12, 13, 15,000 presale transactions, and 90% of those, or 70% of those, would've been what we- what I would call pure presale today.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: Not yet under construction. Yesterday's never coming back, and tomorrow's gonna look really different.

Ryan Berlin: It will. I mean, especially, you alluded to it, but especially in this province, in this market, our primary delivery vehicle for new homes is that presale market.

Greg Zayadi: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin:

Right? Because we don't have space to add ground-oriented... We add some townhomes. There's a few thousand townhomes-

Greg Zayadi: A few more-

Ryan Berlin: ... each year

Greg Zayadi: Multiplexes are coming now, but nowhere near the scale that we build condos.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, there's infill. Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: But it is... If we're gonna grow the housing stock, we have to figure out a way to deliver apartments and condos. That's the reality of our region.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah, I, I... You know, it's, it's interesting. Everyone will talk about a supply problem, an affordability problem, and that's where I always drive back to the, like, "Well, what do we mean?" It's tough to watch some of the articles that came out over the holidays, right? I don't know if you guys saw the BBC one on, um, on worker bee condos.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: So there was this report called Worker Bee Condos that came out of the UK, and it was targeting Toronto and Vancouver, and [chuckles] it was like, "Nobody wants to live in 300 to 500 square feet. Don't kid yourselves."

Ryan Berlin: Mm.

Greg Zayadi: "These are worker bee condos." And do we need more of that? Probably not. So what do we need? What does supply look like? How do we deliver it? Those are things that, as I've said, we and all other major metropolitans are grap- grappling with, and I don't think we've got it figured out-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Greg Zayadi: ... and I don't think we're gonna know how to figure it out tomorrow.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: I think it's gonna take a lot of time.

Ryan Berlin: I agree.

Greg Zayadi: [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: So where, where we don't have a, um, uh, an issue, well, we have until the last few years of delivering supplies in rental. It's also that space for our company is, is taking up more bandwidth as we move into, uh, lease-ups, particularly in, in Metro Vancouver and in Kelowna, but elsewhere as well. So we're just taking an increased interest in what is happening in the rental market, and that is increasingly, we are seeing a shift of people moving towards rental and away from ownership. The financing around rental is a lot more favorable today-

Greg Zayadi: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... than it was prior to a decade ago. So-

Greg Zayadi: Why own when you can rent? We've reversed the equation. It used to be, why rent when you can own? [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: Yep. Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: I mean, financially, mm, maybe rental's better.

Ryan Berlin: I think... I mean, I think the re- uh, the reality is people own and rent for a whole host of reasons. It's not just about dollars and cents. You know, we just conducted a survey of, of buyers and renters, and we found that, yeah, a significant proportion of renters, if affordability wasn't an issue, would like to buy.

Greg Zayadi: Yep.

Ryan Berlin: But not all of them.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: So, you know, we are gonna continue to be a region that needs to have housing across the spectrum. We talk about, hey, we don't just need 3 to 500 square foot condos, we need other types of housing, a diversity of housing that people actually wanna live in, and that goes for tenure, too. It's not just ownership, it's not just rental, it's both.

Greg Zayadi: And rental home sizes have been shrinking along with condo-

Ryan Berlin: Indeed

Greg Zayadi: ... because the cost pressures apply to both.

Ryan Berlin: So with that as a backdrop-

Greg Zayadi: Okay

Ryan Berlin: ... and let's get through this quickly. [laughing]

Greg Zayadi: I'll g- I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll go get a coffee.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Greg, Greg doesn't, doesn't care about rental. [chuckles]

Greg Zayadi: That's not true. I care!

Ryan Berlin: [laughing]

Greg Zayadi: I just... I don't wanna keep talking about it.

Ryan Berlin: Couple minutes on it, though-

Greg Zayadi: Okay

Ryan Berlin:... because we do have new data, and we're seeing things in the data we haven't seen-

Greg Zayadi: Yes

Ryan Berlin: ... before.

Ryan Wyse: Absolutely. So CMHC, once a year, produces their, uh, rental market report. They do a survey every October, looking at the entire purpose-built rental market. So not just new rental homes, all homes, old and old stock as well. And as everyone expected, it shows a softer market. I think there's a couple really interesting things come out. Everyone always looks at that top-line vacancy number. What happened? It went from 1.6% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025. That's the highest it's ever been in this report, going back to 1990. Um, the next highest was, like, 2.6 during COVID, so if you throw that outlier out the window, it's, you know, we're like, we're really in uncharted territory. We've never hit 3%-

Ryan Berlin: Totally

Ryan Wyse: ... before. But vacancy is not distributed evenly. Um, there's quite a difference between old and new, and, and rental rate ranges. I know you'd pulled the, uh, by, by different rents.

Ryan Berlin: By rent quartile, yeah, and which actually has, yeah, big implications for the space that we operate in, working with, uh, clients to lease up new rental, and that is, the- the new rental space is where the deliveries are coming from. So it is, it is worth noting that the vacancy rate for rents in the upper quartile, so top 25% of rents in this region, have a vacancy rate, those units have a vacancy rate of almost 7%.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Right? So that is a function of a lot of new supply that has been delivered over the past decade, but also-... specifically over the last couple of years, matched with what I would call waning demand.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Right?

Ryan Wyse: Population decline.

Greg Zayadi: I guess two pieces. Number one, uh, you know, what, what I think you just soft-pedaled, Ryan, was i- it is a matter of, of value. Like, the market's not meeting the market. Um, no different in the for-sale market or the rental market. Guess what? The supply availability of homes over 1 million, 2 mil- well, 1 million maybe not detached in Lower mainland [chuckles] is a little bit tough. But, like, just keep adding dollars to it and watch the availability go up, and up, and up. No different than rental. Reduce, reduce, reduce, it gets tighter, and tighter, and tighter. The, the- we are unable to meet the market where it is.

Ryan Berlin: That's right. Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: And, and I think that's a key piece. And I... So to me, that's, that's interesting, because as you guys were talking, I go, "Well, what are you talking about? You're telling me we've got the highest vacancy rate ever, we've had more supply, 99,000 new listings this year, lease sales. The hell is everyone talking about a supply problem? There's empty boxes all over-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Greg Zayadi: ... this place of every size known to man."

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: So do we have a supply problem?

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, no, you're absolutely right.

Greg Zayadi: Yes. [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: It is about... It is about-

Greg Zayadi: Yes!

Ryan Wyse: [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: Yes.

Greg Zayadi: Okay, yeah.

Ryan Berlin: We have a long-term supply problem. I think this is... Oh, I have a, I have a terrible analogy, which I-

Ryan Wyse: Bring it

Ryan Berlin: ... have not said in public before. But, I mean, it like-

Ryan Wyse: We're not in public, it's okay.

Ryan Berlin: [laughs] It's like, um, you've got somebody who's malnourished, right? Like, you don't bring that person back to health by taking them to a buffet for dinner one night and saying, "You're good." Right? Like, this is where we're at right now. We have had a confluence of factors, policy, macroeconomic, local, that have converged at once to create a situation where we have, on paper, surplus supply. None of this- this just papers over the long-term structural deficit-

Greg Zayadi: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin:... in housing that we have had. But to your point, Greg, you're right. People don't want to pay what housing needs to sell for-

Ryan Wyse: Or aren't able to

Ryan Berlin: ... or rent for. Or aren't able to.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, when I say... I'm talking like an economist.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. [laughing] They- That's right, they're not able to-

Ryan Wyse: No wonder why

Ryan Berlin: ... right? Or the value is not... Some people can pay, but they don't see the value in the way that they did when prices were $700 a square foot versus 1,200, right? So that, that, that is, that is the issue. And, and so supply and demand works. Like, w- we've been right all along. You add more supply, values are gonna come down. We're seeing that in rental. But then there's a feedback loop, because then the economics of projects start to fail, because values are being pushed down to a floor that, um, at some point, developers look at and they say, "I can't bring a project to this market profitably anymore." And so then what happens is, you have a period where you have less development and prices start to rise. So in all of that, the key is: how do you bring down the cost of development-

Greg Zayadi: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... the cost of delivery?

Ryan Wyse: And we know we're still undersupplied in the overall stock of homes because of the way households have formed and are forming. So we have still a whole bunch of households that are, you know, include 30-year-old adult children living at home, roommates into their 30s, into their 40s. The... If we organized ourselves on an age-related basis the way we did 20 years ago, we would have, like, 40,000 more households than we otherwise do. So we don't have the right kind of housing at the right kind of price, whether that be ownership or rental, to meet the needs of the people that we have here today.

Ryan Berlin: Okay.

Greg Zayadi: Good answer.

Ryan Berlin: Um, I mean-

Ryan Wyse: But we are building a lot more homes. [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: We are building more homes. That's gonna- that will, that will stop in the next couple of years.

Ryan Wyse: That will stop. [chuckles]

Greg Zayadi: I think it already did.

Ryan Berlin: It actually had... There is a bit of inertia here. We're gonna see deliveries continue for the next couple of years, but it will fall off. There's talk of this.

Ryan Wyse: So a lot of homes under construction, both ownership and rental, about half the available new home inventory today is homes under construction that will come regardless.

Greg Zayadi: We, we've never had to deal with this reality, and, and there's... So, so there's- And I- I'm not 100% accurate, but I know this is close enough. So there's two points in construction that impact financing, and we're seeing it right now. Developers, smart developers, conscious developers, pragmatic developers, dig the hole. When you hit that bottom of the hole, decide. Decide if you're moving forward, 'cause the minute you start coming up and build the parkade, that's go time. For a bank, the minute it hits the slab on grade... So you've, you've dug the hole, you've built the parkade, that's the point at which you're almost at no return.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: The bank will have to take it over and finish the building. So we're starting to see that. There was a number of projects, and, and this happens all over the world, we're just not as used to it.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: Um, they dig a hole, and they go, "Mm, stop." Do you fill it in? Do you cover it up? I mean, we've seen this over time in our city, just not in the last 15 years or so.

Ryan Wyse: I was gonna say-

Greg Zayadi: But it's happening right now

Ryan Wyse: ... I can think of one example, and it was pre-Olympics, pre-

Greg Zayadi: The Ritz?

Ryan Wyse: ... recession. I wasn't gonna say it, but yeah. [laughs]

Greg Zayadi: I'll say it. It's not called the Ritz anymore-

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Greg Zayadi: ... it's called the Trump.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: Now, it's not called the Trump-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, yeah

Greg Zayadi: ... it's the Paradox.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. I wasn't gonna name it, but yes. That's the only one I can think of in Vancouver in the time that I've been in the industry.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah. There's a few hanging out there right now.

Ryan Wyse: Okay.

Greg Zayadi: I won't name them, but there are a few.

Ryan Berlin: Okay, the future. Let's talk about the future.

Greg Zayadi: Sure.

Ryan Berlin: Let's move on from rental.

Greg Zayadi: Well, we already did.

Ryan Berlin: The year ahead. Let's just open it up. You've been in the, uh, in the industry for 25 years. We've never seen anything like this. I was just looking at... You took my chart.

Greg Zayadi: Oh! [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: I had a chart. No, it's okay. Uh, it was... It's okay, I don't need it.

Greg Zayadi: It's the folded up piece of paper over there.

Ryan Berlin: Our listeners love this.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [chuckles] Let's leave all of this in.

Greg Zayadi: I don't know, I think, you know... [chuckles] I like it. That's-

Ryan Berlin: So-

Greg Zayadi: I remember when we created this chart.

Ryan Berlin: So I just updated-

Greg Zayadi: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... I haven't formatted it. I updated it. So we, we took the chart we're looking at here, for people who can't see, um, you can hold it up, but if you're listening, you still can't see. We-

Greg Zayadi: It's so pretty

Ryan Berlin: ... we indexed, uh, market cycles-

Greg Zayadi: We started

Ryan Berlin: ... back in '08, '09.

Ryan Wyse: Right here. That's when we started this chart.

Ryan Berlin: That's right.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: So we indexed, uh, benchmark condo prices in Metro Vancouver, uh, over three cycles: '08, '09, '17, '18, and then '20... beginning in 2022. So we took them all to their starting value-

Greg Zayadi: The peak and the trough.

Ryan Berlin: At the beginning of those, that was essentially-

Greg Zayadi: Yeah, mm

Ryan Berlin: ... the peak of the market, and then prices fell, and we mapped out when they returned to, um, their previous peak. In '08, '09, it took a little less than two years for condo prices to come back. In '17, '18, I mean, really, that spread into, uh, early COVID, and COVID gave it a real boost-

Greg Zayadi: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... as transactions picked up, but it took about three years. We [chuckles] are now four years. It was May 2022 when condo prices peaked, and we-

Greg Zayadi: With three mini recoveries-

Ryan Berlin: Little recoveries

Greg Zayadi: ... and three peaks within that-

Ryan Berlin: Right

Greg Zayadi: ... broader cycle.

Ryan Berlin: I, we really got kicked at the beginning of this year, where there was some momentum. And I, we cannot blame all of this on Donald Trump, but a new source of uncertainty got injected into this market when the market was frail.

Greg Zayadi: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Right?

Greg Zayadi: Well put.

Ryan Berlin: And so we have now- we, we've now seen prices come off. Condo prices are 10% off today, where they were almost four years ago. So that's our... Like, that's our backdrop. We know it's been a slow sales environment, a lot more supply. What do we see? What are the big themes for 2025, uh, 2026?

Greg Zayadi: You know, I, I- [sighs] context, perception, uh, repositioning in how we think about things, how we look at things. So, you know, I love asking the follow-up question. People are like, "I think things are gonna get better or be better." "Oh, good! How much better?"

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: What, what is- what defines better? Because if we did 35,000 transactions in the Lower Mainland last year, and it goes up 20%, we're still not at our 10-year average.

Ryan Berlin: Nope.

Greg Zayadi: If it goes up 10%, we don't even match 2024.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: Yep.

Greg Zayadi: So is that better? I, I mean, of course it's better. Better is simple. Show me one differential from the year before, and that's a better year. Are you gonna feel better? Probably not.

Ryan Berlin: Maybe the better question is: what is the new typical? Because we can say, like-

Greg Zayadi: Oh, yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Right?

Greg Zayadi: Let's get there.

Ryan Berlin: Okay, go for it.

Greg Zayadi: Well, context, context, context, right? Our, our dear friend, Mike DelPrete, um-

Ryan Berlin: Do you wanna tell people who he is if they don't know who he is?

Greg Zayadi: Yeah. Mike, Mike DelPrete is fun, is smart. We met him... Um, he, he's kinda- I will call him the foremost expert here, initially on PropTech. Now he covers a-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Greg Zayadi: ... lot of real estate industry. Um, if you wanna, if you wanna learn everything you can about the Zillow, Compass battle, uh-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Greg Zayadi: ... and follow any of those stories, Mike DelPrete, brilliant guy. I've gotten to spend time with him. He's come and visited us, with us. He's, he's spoken with us. He's professor in residence at the University of Colorado, I believe, and, uh, he, he, he talks about context. And we love per capita, because m- my favorite is when people tell you a number, but-

Ryan Berlin: [chuckles]

Greg Zayadi: ... there's no context to it. It's like, "Oh, the population grew by 3,000 people or 300,000 people," and you're like, "Yay."

Ryan Berlin: A lot, a little?

Greg Zayadi: That means nothing to me until you tell me what the base number was. So contextually, our market was not normal for the last 25 years, right? Like, you look at the per cap turnover of real estate, and I, I might get the numbers wrong, and I think they're reasonably accurate, but this is our gateway study that we've been doing. Um, sales per thousand human beings in a marketplace. I think Vancouver was 10.2 per thousand on a five-year average. Toronto was 10.4. LA, seven-point-something maybe. Chicago was high tens or 12. New York, 4.6. When you look at these numbers, we were transacting real estate at a pace that did not make logical sense. We have to accept that. We have to understand that immigration, foreign capital, appreciation drove our market, and we can say it's good, we can say it's bad, it's just the reality of what was. So the, the 40,000 transactions that we saw last, in 2024, the 42,000 of that year, I think it's hard to look at historical averages and think that those mean anything moving forward.

Ryan Berlin: What I wanted to add to that, too, is what we cannot forget is that we are coming out of an era-

 Greg Zayadi: Interest rates

Ryan Berlin: ... of declining interest rates, which obviously impact all markets. Not... That doesn't explain Vancouver's exceptionalism. But it-

Greg Zayadi: What a positive word. [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: What's that?

Greg Zayadi: I'd use real estate junkie, but I see exceptionalism. [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. So, you know, we have 40 years where interest rates were falling, which supported rising values, and that era is over. Like, you look over the last 20 years, and prices in this region have risen on a compound basis by 6% per year. Going forward, I think we'll be lucky if it's 3% per year. So the calculus has changed, and I think we had the luxury in the past, as a market, not for every person, not everyone can afford a home, and not everyone could. We had a l- broadly speaking, the luxury of paying a higher price to live in a place that we wanted to live previously, and that is not the case now. There are more constraints on what we can afford and where we can live.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. The other part of it that I would wanna look into, especially when you mention New York, which I believe has a much higher proportion of renters-

Ryan Berlin: Correct

Ryan Wyse: ... and-

Ryan Berlin: And cost.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, but also for 25 years, for longer than 25 years, we didn't build purpose-built rental in this market, and the mom-and-pop investors, who were a big part of-

Ryan Berlin: So part of it

Ryan Wyse: ... those transactions-

Ryan Berlin: Absolutely

Ryan Wyse: ... filled that gap.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: And so now, purpose-built rental is back. It's a feature of our market, and that's going to crowd out some of those mom-and-pop investors. And so more people will buy one home and live in it and not buy one home, and then buy one condo, and then buy a second condo. And so I think part of that per cap decline that we're going to have-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... going forward will just be from fewer mom-and-pop investors.

Greg Zayadi: I think that's the narrative for t- for, I don't know, 2026, '7, '8.... yeah, I, I think it's a couple years of it. Get excited about this market, 'cause this is the market. If you are waiting for something different, if you are waiting for better, whatever your definition of better is, I'm excited about this. I'm excited for us to play in rental. I'm excited for us to figure out how we advise all of these real estate savvy people. There's still lots of money in the system. We still live in one of the most amazing places in Vancouver, and to take that outside of Vancouver, I still believe urban centers... You know, there was that book years ago called When, uh, When Mayors Rule the World, right? And what they were talking about was the power of urban centers. Sure, COVID might have taken a dent in it, but I think over time, that's all gonna come back. I think we all love secondary markets. We all love vacation property, but really what it is, is that where is the energy? Where is the power? Where is that social connection? And it still happens in our major cities.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: So I'm excited by what's possible, but I'm excited by what is, and I think we all have to build businesses, whether you're, you're a realtor and an independent, whether you're a developer, a construction company, a supplier, and again, this is not a uniquely Vancouver problem. Right now, this is the market that we're in, and there's not a lot of signals that's saying it's gonna be different over the next 24 months.

Ryan Berlin: Okay, with that in mind, and, and as we wrap up here, with this being the market that we're in, what are we doing as a company? What are the things you're excited about that we are doing as a company to navigate this, this ch- I'm not gonna say changing, it's a changed landscape.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah. Inside baseball, outside baseball, we are being very realistic and pragmatic about what the market can deliver. What can we connect to? What can we attach to? Uh, you know, toughest year going, you know, we had to, we had to adjust the company, adapt our model. That came with a lot of really tough decisions.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: You know, if I said last year was about survival, this year is about sustainability-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Greg Zayadi: ... and hopefully, year 2027 or 2028 will be about, uh, um, strive. Um, so, you know, being really open and blunt about it, um, what are you doing to deliver on the revenue? What are you doing to manage your costs? And what are you doing to take care of your people and your culture, as we like to talk about exceptional hospitality for our s- for our home office, for our advisors, for our clients in all areas? What are you thinking about tactically, operationally? And then there's some parts of strategic, but strategic's not an easy thing right now.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: Um, and then I go back to we're really focusing on the people, the process, and the platform. The platform's the intel, the platform's the data, the platform's AI. It's all these great things that we're doing. So, you know, we are not the company we were 10 years ago, and we won't-

Ryan Berlin: Thank goodness.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah, thank goodness.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: No, you're, you're absolutely right because if we were reliant on selling a 350-unit presale, concrete, high-rise tower, we do not have a business or a company. Um, so we are a real estate services business. We are a real estate services company. You watch this year, ask all the people we know, and they're like, "I'm a developer." Nope, they're not gonna say that anymore. They're gonna say, "I'm in real estate." So we are not a presale marketing company, we are a real estate services company. We have six different revenue lines that all are slowly contributing to that, that top line revenue-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm

Greg Zayadi: ... bottom line revenue that are covering the expenses. So we are focused on those things, and I'm, I'm excited by our position in market, both here locally and outside of this market. There's a number of exciting things that I think are gonna come together this year that I'm, I'm, I'm very much looking forward to. And Bob's energized, and, and, and Kris is supportive, and, you know, I- considering the year that we've had, it's, it's, it's not easy to sit there and say I'm excited for what's ahead, but I am, and, and I'm a- and I'm keen on our position in market. We have so much to leverage, um, and fun to be had.

Ryan Berlin: Well said, and just to go back to a concept we touched on earlier, we said context matters. For all of us that are here doing what we've been doing or maybe doing more than we were doing before, um, it's sure gonna feel good when the market is... It doesn't need to be that much busier, but a stable market even.

Greg Zayadi: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: A stable market that we can operate in, and for us here at this company, in different parts of that market, is something I'm, I'm very excited for, right? It's something to look forward to for all of us.

Greg Zayadi: We are all young, I find, in this room, and I'm probably the oldest person in the room.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: We have so many years left at this. [chuckles]

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: Like, honestly, I, I just turned 48, uh, just before Christmas, and, you know, I always joke, I say, "When you're in your 20s, you look at, you look at things in months, if not a year. When you're, when you're in your late 20s, you're starting to think 18 months out. By the time you're in your 30s, you're looking two to three years out." I'm looking five to eight years out.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: May of 2022, this market started to change, flatten, and go down. It's been four years. We're moving into year five.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Greg Zayadi: That's okay. I'm ready for another couple of predictability.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Listen, you can only walk halfway into a forest, right?

Ryan Wyse: Before you're walking out.

Ryan Berlin: Before you're walking out.

Greg Zayadi: Ah.

Ryan Berlin: Okay?

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Right. [laughing] How about that?

Greg Zayadi: I'm still trying to picture it, but I get it.

Ryan Berlin: [laughing] Um, okay, great stuff. I w- I wanna pivot to our listener question. Angela wants to ask us something.

[Listener Question] Angela here. We keep hearing that 2025 was the bottom of the market. Do you agree? And if that's the case, what's making you feel good about where things are headed?

Greg Zayadi: I don't know what the bottom means.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: I think we've been at the bottom of the market. To your point-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Greg Zayadi: ... we've had three mini bumps, three mini troughs, whatever you wanna call it. So, um, are we at the bottom of the market? Sure.  Uh, I mean, it's, it's hard to say that it can, it... the absorption go lower. Listen, there's pricing opportunities out there, so I don't know what that means for bottom or not. Opportunity is available. Um, things are not necessarily getting cheaper, but at the same time, they're not necessarily getting more expensive.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Greg Zayadi: So we are in a bit more of a predictable market. I think, you know, we spent many years in FOMO, fear of missing out, uh, pressure to make a decision, pressure to try and figure it out. I think that pressure's relieved right now, and that might be defining what is, uh, a, a firm footing for us to move forward on.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. I think from a transaction perspective, probably we hit bottom-... I think last year was probably that, but from a pricing perspective, I think we're moving sideways.

Ryan Berlin: And listen, a balanced market, ultimately, a balanced market is what you need for a sustainable market.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Right? Everybody, you win on both sides. We're talking about a market that has sellers and buyers, right? We have a lot of supply right now.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: We have prices that have been softening. If you are in the market, um, you have an opportunity, opportunity of a, of a lifetime-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... right now.

Ryan Wyse: And rate- like, rates still feel elevated from what we're, we're used to. Um, but they're stable now.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: Like, no one's expecting more rate cuts in the next few months. The Bank of Canada's been very explicit about that.

Ryan Berlin: We can live with any interest rate.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: It's... What we can't live with are interest rates [chuckles] that are changing wildly in both directions.

Ryan Wyse: Which is what-

Ryan Berlin: We can-

Ryan Wyse: ... we've had since 2022, or actually, well, since 2020.

Ryan Berlin: The housing market can be-

Greg Zayadi: Down, up, down.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: The housing market can be active with 2% mortgage rates, 3%, 4%, 5%.

Ryan Wyse: It adjusts.

Ryan Berlin: As long as we have some certainty about-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... where they're gonna be. Okay, that's it for the main programming here. Uh, any final thoughts?

Greg Zayadi: Yeah, look, I- how do you distill everything down to a really simple formula or number? That's kind of always fun. And, you know, I believe what over great conversations with, you know, the Beau Jarvises of the world and, and many other smart people, I think we've landed on $700 to $900 a square foot. I think if you reverse that out on rental, we'd find that that meets the sweet spot of a per square foot rent, that the market can, can, can really... Like, how do you hit the sweet spot of the market? How do you grab the most people, in a percentage basis, and, and put your arms around that? So $700 to $900 a square foot. You wanna deliver brand-new inventory that's gonna sell? That's the number. You wanna deliver rental? That's the number that'll get absorbed. You wanna buy a house out there right now? I don't care if it's 5,000 square feet or 500 square feet. I actually don't care if it's 30 years old or two years old. Show me $700 to $900 a square foot, and I will show you a market.

Ryan Berlin: Amazing.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. I like that.

Greg Zayadi: Sweet! [chuckles]

 Ryan Berlin: Greg, thanks for being on.

Greg Zayadi: Happy New Year, all.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, Happy New Year.

Greg Zayadi: 2026.

Ryan Berlin: Right on.

Greg Zayadi: Yeah.

Thank you for joining us on the rennie Podcast. If you'd like to learn more or to subscribe to intelligence updates, go to rennie.com/intelligence.