prices, policies, and population shifts: what’s ahead for housing? | the spring 2025 rennie landscape

The rennie podcast is about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Tune in for monthly discussions making sense of the latest market data.

EPISODE #74: PRICES, POLICIES, & POPULATION SHIFTS: WHAT’S AHEAD FOR HOUSING?

Join Ryan Berlin (Head Economist and VP Intelligence) and Ryan Wyse (Market Intelligence Manager & Lead Analyst) as they break down the latest edition of the rennie landscape—our semi-annual report on the forces shaping housing markets today. From tariffs and interest rates to demographic shifts and housing construction trends, the Ryans explore the key insights that help separate the signal from the noise in an increasingly complex global and local landscape.

Featured guests:

Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence

Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager

Spring 2025 rennie landscape

About the rennie landscape

The rennie intelligence division has just released its semi-annual publication, the rennie landscape, which provides thoughtful, contemporary analysis of the myriad factors impacting the housing markets of Metro Vancouver, the Central Okanagan, and Greater Victoria. The commentary in the rennie landscape is lively, and the insights are objective and data-driven. Key stakeholders in the real estate industry—including developers, realtors, commercial brokers, and institutional investors—rely on the rennie landscape for its succinct review of the latest trends that matter to our market.

We’d love to answer your real estate questions. Email us at intel@rennie.com or leave a voicemail, and we’ll try to respond in future episodes. 

Transcript

Welcome to the rennie podcast, where we talk about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Our goal is to empower you to make informed decisions and provide context for the real estate world around you. We hope that with every episode, you will become a little more knowledgeable and a lot more curious. 

Ryan Berlin: Well, hi again everyone. Welcome to the Rennie Podcast. And hi to all of our watchers on YouTube. I'm Ryan Berlin, head economist and Vice President of Intelligence. Sitting across from me over here is Mr. Brian Wise, Rennie market intelligence manager, and our lead analyst on intel. 

Ryan Wyse: Hello. 

Ryan Berlin: Hello. How are you? 

Ryan Wyse: Uh, I don't know. [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: I know, that's... Yeah, I mean, I, my inclination when people say- 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: ... "How are you?" is to say, "I'm good." And I am good. Like, I'm good. 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: Things, things are good. 

Ryan Wyse: Okay. 

 Ryan Berlin: But I'm like, I'm feeling, I'm feeling taxed, Ryan. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. [laughs] 

 Ryan Berlin: I'm feeling taxed. It's, um, so five year, we're, we're just over five years now from the beginning of COVID-19. 

Ryan Wyse: Yep. 

Ryan Berlin: And we are now dealing with Idiocy 25, the new pandemic. 

Ryan Wyse: Is that... Okay, so that's the new name that we're gonna go with, Idiocy 25? 

Ryan Berlin: It, it's, yes, it's the pandemic of stupidity. 

Ryan Wyse: Okay. 

Ryan Berlin: And it has to do with the tariffs primarily. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes. 

Ryan Berlin: So just a few notes on that. So, okay, so right now, obviously, the United States as of this recording, I mean, again- 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: ... you know, we just- 

Ryan Wyse: As of right now. 

Ryan Berlin: As of right now, timestamp this, the US is taxing imports from islands that only have penguins and have no humans. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: They are taxing imports from countries with whom the US has a trade surplus. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes. 

Ryan Berlin: They are taxing imports from a poor country, like Lesotho- 

Ryan Wyse: Yes 

Ryan Berlin: ... at a 50% tariff rate, because the US, uh, imports $230 million of goods from them. They only buy $7 million from the US. So that little tiny poor country of Lesotho must be ripping off the US and something has to be done about it.  What is the US actually buying from Lesotho? 

Ryan Wyse: Diamonds. 

Ryan Berlin: They're buying diamonds. 

Ryan Wyse: So now I guess US farmers will have to start growing diamonds. [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: Exactly. Exactly. So, you know, this is one of the reasons that you trade, right? Eh, you don't have everything within your country's- 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: ... borders. I don't know why we have to talk about this. But the US wants diamonds and Lesotho has diamonds, so they buy diamonds. And Lesotho says, "Hey, we're not, we're not rich enough to buy, you know, the finished manufactured products that, that you sell, America." And honestly, that, that relationship should work really, really well- 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: ... for the US. Anyway, as Bill Withers would say, it's just the two of us, Ry, no guest today because we have a special edition of this podcast that we do every six months- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... uh, where we will share some key insights from the latest edition, the Spring 2025 edition of The Rennie Landscape. So I know previous listeners will know what The Landscape is, and some of our listeners are Landscape readers. For, for everyone else, why don't you just sort of share- 

Ryan Wyse: Sure, yeah 

Ryan Berlin:... what it's about? 

Ryan Wyse: So The Rennie Landscape, we do it twice a year, spring and fall. And I would call it our signature publication. So most of what we do and most of what people who analyze and talk about housing markets do is report on the metrics of the housing market. They ta- You know, we talk about sales, listings, prices, how things are changing. That's so much of what we report on day to day, week to week, month to month. But The Landscape is really about why things are happening in the housing market. So instead of the what- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... sales transactions, things like that, it's why. Why are things behaving the way they are in the housing market? What's happening in the economy? What's happening, uh, with interest rates, demographics, credit and debt? All these other big macro factors that play into, um, the dynamics of a local housing market. 

Ryan Berlin: Great. Yeah, and, um, I guess it's been six years now that we've- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... um, been producing this pretty much every six months. Outside of that first year when we did it every quarter, which we will never do again. 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: And so this time around, The Landscape was, was written against this backdrop of, I mean, quite elevated economic uncertainty. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Uncertainty that kind of has reemerged as, you know, after things had calmed down after sort of the wake of, of, of the pandemic hitting us. Um, so that is understandably one of the key themes of this Landscape, along with a couple of others that include Canada being at somewhat of a demographic tipping point if you will. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: An inflection point. And also another theme being that, um, housing markets here in Metro Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, and across the country are, are undergoing some changes. And some of them are structural and physical in the sense of, you know, looking at the pace of construction and how that's changing- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... is th- there have been some shifts there. But also we're seeing, sort of tying into that, that first theme of uncertainty, we're seeing markets respond, the resale market in particular and, and presale, which we won't talk too much about on this episode. I think we'll wait till the next one we have the Q1 data. But we're seeing the transactional, I guess, real estate markets impacted as well. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: So let's jump in and just talk about these themes, and then maybe you can share some insights from The Landscape, sort of summarize them for, for folks. On the topic of economic uncertainty, what do you see as being... Maybe this, this is a real softball question here, Ryan. 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: What is that most critical factor that's contributing to the uncertainty? And it's tariffs. It's also sort of the haphazard approach to implementing the tariffs, I think, that's really creating a lot of the uncertainty. Or did I just answer my own question there? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, well, and I would go a step further and say, you know, we saw market response before any tariffs were actually- 

Ryan Berlin: Right 

Ryan Wyse: ... implemented. So if, if we just talk about...You know, our local housing markets across Canada. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm. 

Ryan Wyse: Sales counts were picking up to varying degrees in Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna. Eastern markets to Toronto, Montreal. Everything was starting to pick up a little bit. And then so here in Vancouver, we saw for four consecutive months from October through January, year-over-year sales increases. So, we weren't sort of busy or back to average or anything. But then, you know, basically on February 1st when tariffs weren't implemented but there was this looming March 4th deadline, we saw buying activity really pull back- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... and sales really slow down February, now again in March. And it's the, again, the uncertainty, all of the chaos that comes with the current US administration, where they're threatening Canada and Mexico and China and the EU and all these other countries and uninhabited islands and everything in between. People are just taking a step back and waiting because they don't know what, you know, 2:00 PM is gonna look like, let alone tomorrow or next month or five years from now when you have to renew a mortgage. 

Ryan Berlin: For sure. And I, and I think the, the conduit through which they're impacting the mindset of, I think people and businesses is... I mean, there, there are, there are a couple of them. Um, uh, one of them is, um, you know, there's concerns about interest rates- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... obviously, right? So, interest rates have been coming down from, you know, generational highs. And still not, let me talk about it in a minute, the Bank of Canada's still not... hasn't brought its rate down to what we would consider to be the terminal rate, sort of where it will stop cutting. Currently at 2.75. And we, up until this point, seen the terminal rate as 2.5. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: So, so getting there, bond yields had come down, economic activity had picked up, and mortgage rates, fixed mortgage rates had come down. So, the wheels, like, were, had, started to be... They, they were starting to be greased a little bit more, to your point. The n- last year ended better than the year started. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: There was some momentum there. So now there's this concern that tariffs and retaliatory tariffs from Canada against the US could lead to more inflation, which in turn may lead to an uptick in interest rates. The other part of it this time around, which is different from during the pandemic when it was kind of inflation and interest rates were the main focus, there's now a, like a pure economic threat to jobs- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... and economic activity. So, I think for households, they're looking and saying, "Okay. Well, how, how much is a mortgage gonna cost me if I'm gonna buy or if I'm going to renew?" But beyond that, it's like, "Do I feel secure in my job?" 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So the Bank of Canada just put out a, it's a good survey did on this. So, asking consumers a whole bunch of questions, one of which was, "Are you concerned about losing your job or are you more concerned about losing your job than you were a few months ago?" And those who work in, you know, o- the auto sector, forestry, et cetera, those sectors that are really vulnerable to tariffs, those respondents answered at a much higher rate that yeah, they're worried about losing their jobs. So, those are the type of people who maybe don't want to make a big financial decision right now. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. A- and understandably so. So, you talked about the economy starting to... Or the housing market starting to respond to the, the looming threat of tariffs even before anything had been- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... implemented. I don't know if you wanna talk more broadly about the labor market in Canada which, you know, we've, we've talked about the direction and magnitude of changes in the past. But I know the landscape goes into a bit more detail on that front. So, you know, how is the labor market evolving? And then alongside of that, what do we see the Bank 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So- 

Ryan Berlin: ... in what way? 

Ryan Wyse: The labor market's really... It's been this like slow and steady deterioration over, uh, about a two-year period. So, in, uh, summer of 2022, our unemployment rate hit an all-time low. And since then, we've been just seeing the slow and steady uptick month after month of a rising unemployment rate. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Wyse: Part of that is, you know, the weight of high interest rates sort of slo- slowly having more of, of an effect of reducing demand in the economy. Part of that is the demographic side of, um, record-setting population growth adding, you know, to our labor force faster than we can maybe accommodate. And so we've seen is, uh, this atypical period where the unemployment rate has risen for basically two consecutive years- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... without a major shock preceding it like w- you would typically see in this, this type of environment. So, I think going back to 1980, there's been sort of seven periods like this. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Wyse: And all seven of them were, you know, recessions, um, dot-com crash, Great Financial Crisis, COVID. 

Ryan Berlin: Yep. 

Ryan Wyse: Um, some of the, uh, challenges of the early '90s. Um, and so this is like a unique period from a perspective of the Canadian labor market. 

Ryan Berlin: Indeed. Yeah. And it's sort of, it's, it's almost... It's happened sort of under our noses here. Like, I don't know if everyone's been paying attention to it. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: I think, I think the unemployment right now is at a point where we are taking notice. It's close to 7%. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And certainly as a starting point going into a what could be a protracted trade war with the US, uh, that's something to watch. And that's something the Bank of Canada will watch. So, you know, with the, with the unemployment rate having been rising for, uh, I mean, it's been almost three years. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm. 

Ryan Berlin: You know, how might the Bank of Canada respond to that with the, you know, obviously added complication of tariffs? Or are they looking at things in a different way? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. Uh, and this is where we go back to the Bank of Canada's sole mandate, which is inflation. You know, in the States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of inflation and jobs. In Canada we don't. It's all about inflation. I think that is important for people to remember. Um, and Tiff Macklem, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, has been quite outspoken lately about this idea that monetary policy is this like big, blunt instrument that is not best suited to relief and is much better suited to keeping inflation in check. And so he's sort of saying look to the federal government for- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... sectorial relief for workers, for businesses, who are adversely impacted by this, uh, these new import taxes. Well, so I think, you know, we shouldn't expect too much from the Bank of Canada here in terms of a lower policy rate, uh, and instead look for them to be more targeted in, in their approach. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. I think that's, I think that's good perspective to share.

Maybe final topic on the, the broader topic of uncertainty, maybe complicating, uh, our ability to forecast forward what our world's gonna look like is the fact that amongst, you know, all of this economic- and trade-driven uncertainty, we have political uncertainty in Canada- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... because, um, we don't know who our federal governing party will be on April 28th- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... at this point. It looks like it's gonna be the Liberals right now, but in a week, it could be the Conservatives. Uh, it's- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [laughs] There's bit of a upswing in the polls lately, so- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... I think like a 29-point swing- 

Ryan Berlin:Yes 

Ryan Wyse... over the last couple months. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. I mean, it's, it's, it's unp- unprecedented, I believe. 

Ryan Wyse:Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin:I don't think we've ever seen anything quite like this over such a short period of time. I think on, on December 31st, if these numbers... I, I think they're correct, the Conservatives had a... Just in, in general polling had a, a 24-point lead on the Liberals, and now the Liberals have a seven-point lead nationally. 

Ryan Wyse:Oh, yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: So yeah. So there's a lot of uncertainty there. Briefly, what implications might a Conservative, let's just say majority, versus a Liberal majority have for housing? 

Ryan Wyse:I think the first thing [laughs] we get some more clarity. Before all of this tariff uncertainty, we had, you know, a finance minister resign very publicly. We had a lot of turmoil- 

Ryan Berlin: Sure 

Ryan Wyse:... in our, in our own house before, you know, all the focus went to the US. So I think regardless of who wins, we get some more clarity. We've seen some of the housing platforms get announced. So we know that the Liberals want to do no GST on new homes for first-time buyers up to a million dollars. 

Ryan Berlin:Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Wyse:The Conservatives wanna do no GST on new homes up to 1.3 million. I think generally, you know, housing is a necessity. I'd be in favor of no GST on new homes. Um, but I would also wanna see that whatever that limit is be indexed to- 

Ryan Berlin: Absolutely 

Ryan Wyse: ... either inflation or, you know, benchmark prices so that, you know, 10 years from now those numbers are still relevant. We've seen that the Liberal Party wants to create Build Canada Homes, I believe it's called, and they want to get involved, uh, use a Crown corp to actually build hundreds of thousands of new homes per year- 

Ryan Berlin: [gasps] 

Ryan Wyse:... which is probably not possible given labor constraints, given that- 

Ryan Berlin: I think you're right. [laughs] 

Ryan Wyse:... uh, inputs are now gonna be more expensive. 

Ryan Berlin: And needless to say too, that unfortunately they, they would then be competing with the private sector, who is also- 

Ryan Wyse: Yes 

Ryan Berlin: ... trying to deliver homes. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes. Uh, but they also wanna do... They wanna bring back the MURB, the Multi-Unit Residential Buildings, which is a, a tax incentive from the 1970s that, uh, was helpful in getting- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... uh, rental housing built back in the '70s. And it was essentially a tax incentive where developers and owners could, uh, write off costs. So I think that's an interesting one. And then they want to reduce DCCs, development cost charges, and some of the details on that are still to be worked out. 

Ryan Berlin: It's very interesting. So we obviously... It's... Yeah. Without, without knowing who's, who's going to win, it's hard to know how these things will play out- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... um, and what the timing will look like with some of these things. But just sort of sticking on the topic of federal government policy, uh, and segueing into our second theme, um, that we wanted to touch on here from the landscape is that Canada is undergoing currently a pretty big shift in its demographic composition and the size of the population. And, and a lot of that is driven, most of it is driven by what, what we expect to be this year and next year a decline in the non-permanent resident population. Do you wanna talk a bit about that? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: In general terms what that might mean for the housing market here in Metro Vancouver? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. I do wanna talk about that. So [laughs]- 

Ryan Berlin: Good. I was getting kind of idle. 

Ryan Wyse: Um, yeah. So immigration policy in Canada has always been focused on immigrants, permanent resident editions. So since 2015, we've set permanent resident targets every year, and they've generally been increasing. And they set them sort of three years ahead and they update them every year. And so this year was supposed to be 500,000 permanent residents, but as we've talked a lot about, we had population growth in excess of a million, and we've added- 

Ryan Berlin: Hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... like three million people over the last three years, which is the equivalent to Metro Vancouver's population in three years nationally. And the reason for that, as we've touched on a ton on this podcast, is non-permanent residents, so temporary foreign workers, international students, um, asylum seekers. And that population has been... There's been no explicit target set to it and it's grown at a rate, uh, like we've never seen before. And that's really been the big change in how we've... sort of our population growth has accelerated so much over the last few years and now it becomes a part of the new immigration targets. And so the main goal, the focus here is to reduce the share of non-permanent residents- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... from just over 7% at the end of last year to 5% of the population. 

Ryan Berlin: By the end of- 

Ryan Wyse: 2026. So- 

Ryan Berlin: So that's fast, like two years. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. And the way to do it, I- it'll be a few things. So some of those people will convert to permanent residents. Some will have their permits expire and then they will issue fewer new permits. And so they expect a decrease in-... in the non-permanent resident population of, like, 450,000 in each of the next two years. But that was also based on having less population growth last year than we ultimately have. So we probably need to, uh, see more temporary residents leave than is in the original plan in order to hit those targets, uh, assuming all else being equal. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Right. And, yeah, assuming the will remains, persists over the next couple of years to actually [laughs] drive down to that target. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: 'Cause I mean, that is an aggressive change. Obviously, there was, there was a very quick and substantial run up in population. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. I wonder if, you know, a l- a slower tapering off would be a little bit easier to manage for... When I think about, uh, particularly the, the, um, post-secondary- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... uh, education, uh, institutions here. But yeah, that's a,huge shift. And then, that obviously is gonna have implications for housing. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes. At the regional level or the provincial level, it's not just international migration that matters for population growth. It's also domestic migration, and births and deaths. Although in Canada, we don't have a lot of births, so that, it ends up being sort of not, not much of an impact. 

 Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: If domestic migration at the regional level continues as it has, we'll get population decline in Metro Vancouver. So unless we see a big influx of people moving here from other parts of BC and other parts of Canada, that outflow of non-permanent residents in Metro Vancouver will lead to population decline. Because non-permanent residents f- they overwhelmingly flock to Canada's largest cities. And so, Metro Vancouver has a disproportionately high share of non-permanent residents living here today. And so what that means, essentially, is that we would expect population decline unless a whole bunch of domestic movers come here. And the prob- that probably won't happen. And so I think we can reasonably- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... expect population decline in this region this year and next year. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Uh, currently our models are forecasting a 15 to 20,000 person decline this year and next. Again, that's not if, if we don't see a major change, to your point, in those domestic flows. We know that, uh, very consistently every year, that more people leave Metro Vancouver for other parts of BC- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... than come to this region from elsewhere in the province. We don't specifically know the whys, but you can assume that it's a, largely a cost of living driven decision. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So we could see a s- a change with, you know, less competition in the rental market from international students and temporary-

Ryan Berlin: Right. Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... foreign workers. 

Ryan Berlin: And so some people stay who otherwise would've left. Um, we did a bit of sensitivity testing on that. And it would take a, uh, not to overuse this term, 'cause I think we used it earlier, but a seismic- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... shift in those domestic flows to really come close to compensating, to a large degree, for the overall outflow of international, uh, residents. And then for housing, you know, i- the, you know, we talk about migration and migrants, they are younger than the existing population here in Canada. The typical person is, maybe surprisingly to some people, 32 years old. So it's a Millennial. 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: But that's kind of a new, that's a recent development. That Millennial being the typical person in Canada has only been true for the last three years. For the prior 50 years, it was a Baby Boomer. So, and, and part of that is just the run up in growth and migration that we saw over the past few years. So 32 years old. The typical immigrant is 27 years old. The typical non-permanent resident, so international student, temporary foreign worker, but dominated by international students, the profile at least, is an 18 year old. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And then, so you look at, you know, you look at life cycle patterns of housing occupancy and demand. And we know that renters primarily exist in that 20 to 44 year old group. And so it is the rental market here. Um, and we've talked about this before- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin:... o- on this, on this podcast, the rental market will f- will feel the effects more than the ownership, uh, market, most likely from these, from these shifts. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Speaking of the rental market, our final theme that we wanted to touch on from the landscape is some of the trends that we're seeing within the housing market as it relates to construction and new supply. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So what we've seen is a renewal of construction of purpose-built rentals. So in Metro Vancouver- 

Ryan Berlin: It's a good thing. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, i- it is. From like 1990 to about 2015, we built very few new purpose-built rentals. Uh, all of, almost all of the additions to the rental market came- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... in the condominium space. So since 2007, 79% of all rental additions in Metro Vancouver have come from condominiums owned by individual investors- 

Ryan Berlin: Right 

Ryan Wyse: ... not purpose-built. Purpose-built rental construction is increasing for a few reasons. There's some policies geared towards purpose-built rental that make it a little bit more favourable. And the pre-sell market has not been as active as it has in the past. So we've now increased purpose-built rental starts. So in each of the past three years, th- there's been more than 10,000 in this region, which has never happened prior to 2022. 

Ryan Berlin: Right. Um, and, and we've got, like, 21,000 homes that are, uh, purpose-built rental homes that are under construction. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: So we should see, yeah, an increase in completions going forward from rental, a decrease in the multi-family for sale segment. Because we know that the homes haven't been pre-selling. If homes don't sell in the pre-sell market, the multi-family homes, the, the homes and towers, then, uh, they don't get built. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So starts peaked in this region in 2023. They declined a bit last year. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Wyse: And based on, you know, the number of pre-sells that we've seen, the number of building permits issued, we expect starts to continue to fall. Which means, you know, three to four, five years from now, we'll see, uh, ownership completions fall as well. 

Ryan Berlin: Great. Well, that's, um, that was an enjoyable discussion. Uh, there's obviously a lot more in the landscape to check out. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And, uh, if anyone's interested in...... reading it. You don't have to read the whole thing. You can read it piece by piece. Um, you can go to rennie.com/intelligence for that. [atmospheric music] 

Ryan Wyse: Oh,

Ryan Berlin: All right, let's transition to our next segment. Beneath the headline, Ryan, what do you have for us? 

Ryan Wyse: a good one. Vancouver home buyers face one of the biggest price increases in the country. 

Ryan Berlin: When? Like, what year? 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] I believe they're talking about last month. 

Ryan Berlin: Oh, okay, yeah. That does not, uh- 

Ryan Berlin: That makes no sense to me. 

Ryan Wyse: So, um, really quick, benchmark values did increase across the Lower Mainland, the com- combination of the Vancouver and Fraser Valley Board areas. The composite price increase was like a half a percent. 

Ryan Berlin: Right, okay. Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: And then if you look at the different home types, all increasing by somewhere between 0.1 and 0.6%. I gather many other markets in the country did not see price increases, and so this very, very marginal month-to-month change in price was deemed the biggest price increase in the country. 

Ryan Berlin: So, okay. So I was too quick to sorta poo-poo it. So it might- It's technically- 

Ryan Wyse: Yes 

Ryan Berlin: ... uh, correct, but obviously a very narrow focus on the latest- the latest month-to-month change, which was- which was quite small. 

Ryan Wyse: And if you look at it on an annual basis, prices were down like a percent year over year, so... 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, and I mean, I think that that's a better way to evaluate how values are changing. So, yeah, I mean, even with a- a half a percentage point increase in the benchmark price, that doesn't materially change the affordability calculation. Homes are still expensive. It is still difficult to afford a home, but obviously not much has changed versus last month. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes, prices have been quite stable for- 

Ryan Berlin: Yes 

Ryan Wyse: ... a while. [atmospheric music] 

Ryan Berlin: And finally, we have a question from one of our listeners, Tracy in Vancouver. 

Listener Question: With so much uncertainty in the economy and the market, how are investors thinking about real estate right now? Are they pulling back? 

Ryan Berlin: Wyse, your two cents? 

Ryan Wyse: They already have. So, I think we've talked about this before, but investors have already pulled back in part because of high interest rates and some of the policy changes we saw over the last couple of years. And they really haven't reengaged yet because of all this uncertainty. So, if we look at across all Rennie projects, investors versus end-users buying, uh, new homes from- from Rennie. In 2021, 2022, 2023, investors were around half of all buyers. Again, for that sort of pre-sale new home where investors are quite active. Last year, it was 26%, so already last year we saw a pullback, uh, in investor activity. And through the first quarter of this year, so, you know, pretty early in the year still, investors were 7% of our buyers so far this year. So, I would say they've already pulled back, and it's- definitely uncertainty is playing a factor, but so is, you know, all the challenges that we talked about last year. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it makes perfect sense, and, you know, the hope is that we can work our way through this trade conflict sooner than later with a clear set of rules that everybody will agree to play by, including the country that negotiates them, south of the border. Because they also negotiated our current trade agreement a few years ago, which they are not abiding by. So, the hope would be that we have more certainty on the tariff front, because otherwise, you know, I- As we've talked about, you know, inflation has not been a major threat in any way for over a year, and interest rates are sort of getting to a lower, more stable level that makes housing a little bit more accessible- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... I think for- for everyone, including first-time home buyers. So, we're getting to a point where rates will be... You know, if we can get some c- certainty around the tariffs, that we'll have lower, more stable interest rates, and that should create a- a sort of more favorable environment for investors, and I would expect them to sort of reenter the market- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... uh, once that's been established. So, thank you, Tracy, for your question. For everyone else, we would love to answer your real estate questions. You can email us at intel@rennie.com, or you can leave a voicemail at speakpipe.com/therenniepodcast, and we'll try to respond in our next episode. Ry, that was fun. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Um, you know, we don't... As analysts, economists, we don't necessarily have answers, but I think, you know, there's a lot of noise out there, and we're- we're trying to cut through it and distill things down to- to what matters. So, on that point, I enjoyed today's discussion. 

Ryan Wyse: Same here, and I think [laughs], you know, if you're really sick of tariff discussion, there's a lot of stuff in the Rennie landscape beyond just, uh, exports and tariffs. So, uh, there's more there than- 

Ryan Berlin: [laughs] 

Ryan Wyse: ... that'll hopefully, you know, keep you engaged. 

Ryan Berlin: Awesome. Okay. Thanks, Ry. 

Ryan Wyse: Thanks. 

Ryan Berlin: Thank you for listening and watching. We'll see you in the next episode. [atmospheric music] 

Ryan Wyse: Thank you for tuning into The Rennie Podcast, where we share our passion for homes, housing, community, and cities. We hope that today's episode sparked the same curiosity in you that drives us every day. If you enjoyed the conversation, don't forget to subscribe and follow us on your favorite podcast platform, and if you have a moment, we'd love for you to leave a review. It helps others discover the insights, analysis, and perspective we bring from the Rennie Intelligence Division. For the latest market updates, be sure to register at rennie.com. [upbeat music] 

Thank you for joining us on The Rennie Podcast. If you'd like to learn more, all resources mentioned in the episode can be found at rennie.com/intelligence. To be the first to receive this information, register for intelligence updates. [upbeat music]

The rennie podcast was created as another way of sharing our passion for homes, housing, community, and cities. We hope that this will spark the same curiosity in you that we have for everything real estate.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our senior economist, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria, and Seattle marketplaces. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.