the rennie outlook 2026

In the rennie outlook, we provide our predictions for various dimensions of our economy and housing market for 2026. The value of making predictions is not just in the correctness of predictions themselves, but also in defining the context and assumptions that inform them.

We hope that you find this report useful as a basis for planning or, at the very least, as a part of constructive conversations about how our market is evolving.

Highlights:

• Resale Market: Interest rate stability, reduced uncertainty, and elevated inventory levels will lead to some growth in sales counts in 2026, with a total of 38,000 MLS sales predicted for the year—up 8% from 2025. We expect sales to reach 12,000 for detached homes, 10,000 for townhomes, and 16,000 for condos.

• Rents: Metro Vancouver’s rental market will experience a continued softening in 2026. On a per-square-foot basis, new purpose-built rents are predicted to fall by up to 4.8% regionally.

• Starts and Completions: We expect housing starts in Metro Vancouver to decline by another 15% in 2026, to 23,100. This would represent the second-fewest housing starts over the past decade. Based on declining housing starts over the past two years and the number of homes currently under construction having peaked, we predict housing completions in Metro Vancouver will fall to 29,400 in 2026. Notably, this would still represent the second-highest annual total since at least 1990.

• Completed Inventory: The number of newly-completed and unsold condominiums added to the market will outpace the absorption of existing completed and unsold inventory. We expect the total number of completed and unsold condos will grow to 3,650 by the end of 2026.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our head economist, senior demographer, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insights and analyses. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research support a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, Seattle, Coachella Valley, and San Diego markets. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.