the rennie outlook 2026
Feb 04, 2026
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In the rennie outlook, we provide our predictions for various dimensions of our economy and housing market for 2026. The value of making predictions is not just in the correctness of predictions themselves, but also in defining the context and assumptions that inform them.
We hope that you find this report useful as a basis for planning or, at the very least, as a part of constructive conversations about how our market is evolving.
Highlights:
- Resale Market: Interest rate stability, reduced uncertainty, and elevated inventory levels will lead to some growth in sales counts in 2026, with a total of 38,000 MLS sales predicted for the year—up 8% from 2025. We expect sales to reach 12,000 for detached homes, 10,000 for townhomes, and 16,000 for condos.
Rents: Metro Vancouver’s rental market will experience a continued softening in 2026. On a per-square-foot basis, new purpose-built rents are predicted to fall by up to 4.8% regionally.
Starts and Completions: We expect housing starts in Metro Vancouver to decline by another 15% in 2026, to 23,100. This would represent the second-fewest housing starts over the past decade. Based on declining housing starts over the past two years and the number of homes currently under construction having peaked, we predict housing completions in Metro Vancouver will fall to 29,400 in 2026. Notably, this would still represent the second-highest annual total since at least 1990.
Completed Inventory: The number of newly-completed and unsold condominiums added to the market will outpace the absorption of existing completed and unsold inventory. We expect the total number of completed and unsold condos will grow to 3,650 by the end of 2026.
Our rennie intelligence team comprises our head economist, senior demographer, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insights and analyses. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research support a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, Seattle, Coachella Valley, and San Diego markets. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.
Related
We are pleased to present our Spring 2026 edition of the rennie landscape. Focusing on Central Okanagan, this edition of the rennie landscape examines various facets of economic and demographic change, to provide clarity on the forces shaping our housing markets and and consider what the future may hold.
Today
Report
There’s a lot being said about the housing market right now, and not all of it lines up. One story points to a slow market, with hesitant buyers and downward pressure on prices. The other points to early signs of change, with sales beginning to pick up and supply tightening. Ryan Berlin and Ryan Wyse are joined by Brandan Price to bring together what the data is showing and what’s playing out in the market. They look at where conditions stand today, what may be shifting beneath the surface, and what it means for how people buy, sell, and make decisions this spring. Featured guests: Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager Brandan Price, rennie advisor We’d love to answer your real estate questions. Email us at intel@rennie.com or leave a voicemail, and we’ll try to respond in future episodes.
Mar 2026
Podcast