why buyers are waiting and sellers are still listing in the Sea-to-Sky

The rennie podcast is about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Tune in for monthly discussions making sense of the latest market data.

Episode: #83 WHY BUYERS ARE WAITING AND SELLERS ARE STILL LISTING IN THE SEA-TO-SKY

Join Ryan Berlin (Head Economist and VP Intelligence), Ryan Wyse (Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst), and rennie advisor Carleigh Hofman as they examine how the housing market is closing out 2025 across Metro Vancouver, Squamish, and Whistler. They discuss near-record-low sales, elevated listings, shifting labour market signals, and what interest rates may do next. Carleigh shares on-the-ground insight into who is buying, who is selling, and why the Sea-to-Sky corridor continues to behave differently than the broader region.

Featured guests:
Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence
Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager
Carleigh Hofman, rennie advisor

We’d love to answer your real estate questions. Email us at intel@rennie.com or leave a voicemail, and we’ll try to respond in future episodes. 

Transcript
It would take a shocking turn of events in December... for this to be anything other than the fewest sales across the region in more than 20 years.

Interest rates have come down.  Like, housing is more affordable.

People that wanted two-year-ago pricing are getting a bit more realistic.

There's a relationship between what happens in Whistler's real estate market and what's happening, say, in the stock market.

Obviously, a lot of people's homes in Whistler are secondary homes. So, you know, be told how much you have to use it... it's a hard thing to swallow for some people that are overseas.

Ryan Berlin: Welcome to The rennie Podcast, your guide to what's happening in the real estate market in Greater Vancouver. I'm Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence at rennie

Ryan Wyse: And I'm Ryan Wyse, Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst at rennie. And, uh, you wrote a joke for me, Ryan. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: I didn't write any.

Ryan Wyse: Basically, the guy who stares at charts so you don't have to.

Ryan Berlin: There you go. That's- that can be part of your title.

Ryan Wyse: Okay, I like that. Thank you.

Ryan Berlin: Today's extra special guest, making her long overdue debut, I would say.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, absolutely.

Ryan Berlin: Because I actually thought you had been on before, and we were chatting, and it was like, "Oh, Carleigh never been on?"

Carleigh Hofman: Never leave Whistler, you know?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So December would have been the perfect time to have you on, but it's just pouring rain.

Ryan Berlin: Yes, indeed. So- so, Carleigh, Carleigh Hofman.

Carleigh Hofman: Yes.

Ryan Berlin: Carleigh Hofman, uh, Whistler real estate expert and top-performing rennie advisor. You're pretty famous in Whistler, but for just a few listeners and watchers who don't know you, what's your story?

Carleigh Hofman: Uh, yeah, my name's Carleigh Hofman. I actually started my real estate journey in West Vancouver. Obviously very familiar with rennie because of that, and was always very impressed with their marketing and everything you guys do. Um, and then naturally it has progressed to Whistler, and it felt like, uh, the right fit for me to be there. So it's been a... ... great time for me up at rennie Whistler, and yeah, Whistler's happy to have rennie there.

Ryan Wyse: Awesome.

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: And we're happy to have you.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: And we're happy to be in Whistler.

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Um, so outside we have an atmospheric river, I think. Like, they didn't call it that when we were kids, I don't think, right? Like, they're not a new phenomenon. It's just like a lot of rain.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, yeah, yeah. But when we were kids, like, rivers were only on the ground where they belonged.

Ryan Berlin: Now they're... Yeah, yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Now they're in the sky.

Carleigh Hofman: In the streets.

Ryan Berlin: Climate change.

Carleigh Hofman: On the mountains also right now, which isn't ideal.

Ryan Berlin: That's what I was gonna ask you, is if it's raining. Like, I always think here when it's raining, um, you know, at sea level, that the North Shore mountains, if you can't see the tops of them, are probably getting some snow in the winter. That doesn't necessarily apply to... Like, I can't- you can't extrapolate rain here to lots of snow in Whistler.

Carleigh Hofman: Well, yesterday it was raining in the valley, but I actually did go up the mountain to go skiing, and it was a winter wonderland. So you just never know.

 Ryan Berlin: Oh, all right.

Carleigh Hofman: Sometimes you gotta get above the clouds to really know what's-

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Carleigh Hofman:... what's going on.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Right on. Well, thanks for being here.

Carleigh Hofman: Yes, thanks for having me.

Ryan Berlin: And for braving the rain.

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: There's a lot we wanna cover today, including the latest in our real estate market here in the southwest corner of BC's mainland, and that includes Whistler's. We'll talk specifically about Whistler and also Squamish. And then also some of the big-picture stuff, so Metro Vancouver's labor market. There was a recently, um, released federal budget and updated immigration levels plan we'll touch on, and then we'll talk about what it all means for interest rates, potentially, in 2026. Okay, let's talk about the market. We're 11 months into what has been a, choose your adjective, uh, tumultuous, frustrating, uh, bottom-scraping 2025. In November, Mr. Wyse, what did you see? Was it sort of more of the same from the prior 10 months, or was there anything that sort of jumped off the page at you?

Ryan Wyse: So, high level, it's been more of the same. The last few months, it's-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... it's been a couple months since we've actually [laughs] just talked about the local market on this podcast.

Ryan Berlin: That's true.

Ryan Wyse: Um, but the last few months have been pretty slow. So we had around 2,700 sales across the region in November, 16% less than last year, 28% below average. I think all of the past few months have been close to or around 30% below average. So through 11 months of the year, like, with only December left, and December, of course, is typically quite slow, we know kind of how this year has gone and where we're gonna finish.

Ryan Berlin: And it's not, I mean, it's not looking, from a total transaction perspective, it's not looking great.

Ryan Wyse: No. It would take a shocking turn of events in December-

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: ... for this to be anything other than the fewest sales across the region in more than 20 years.

Ryan Berlin: I mean, and we know we track this-

Carleigh Hofman: Except for Whistler.

Ryan Wyse: Okay.

Ryan Berlin: We'll- we'll get there.

Ryan Wyse: We'll get to that. [laughs]

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: We know because we track this stuff on a daily basis that-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... things are not going gangbusters here in December-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... in the first, whatever, eight days.

Ryan Wyse: Exactly. So we are just shy of 33,000 sales through 11 months, and we're probably gonna finish just over 35,000. So context is, uh, average probably close to 50, just over 50. Um, last two years, 40.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: And those were tough years, 20% below average, and we're- we are nowhere close to that with only December remaining. So, this is fewer than the 36,000 that we had in 2008 at the height of the great financial crisis, the Great Recession. So yeah, it's- it's a slower year than I think anyone necessarily anticipated at the start of the year. Um, and again, yeah, more than two decade low.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, I mean, I still think, I mean, I hate to keep going back to it, but I just think nobody feels really confident in what the world is going to look like [laughs] next year.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Right? So there's that- that uncertainty, that word again, I think is still relevant. And it feels like there's, I mean, part of it is- is what's happening south of the border. It's not all of it, but it just feels very unsettled.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Like, you know, we haven't found our footing in the last year, and I- I think it's just keeping people on the sidelines. I mean, rates have come down. Interest rates have come down.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Like, housing is more affordable today. We've talked about this on- on this podcast before. Um, I think with the combination of price.... declines and interest rate drops, I think housing is more affordable today than it's been in three years, right? Something like that.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. I think there is more clarity at home. Like, this time last year, the government, uh, the prime minister resigned, the finance minister resigned. Uh, we had a caretaker government for, like four months, and then we had an election. Like, that's all been sorted. We now have our new government. They just passed a federal budget. They have all these plans, which we'll talk about in a bit, whether we like them or not. Um, but there's a lot more certainty at home. You just mentioned interest rates. We'll talk about it more, but there's a lot more clarity around interest rates. It's that, like, global piece. It's everything that's happened in the US that's still making things so uncertain. We don't know if we're gonna have a free trade agreement this time next year or not.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. So, what's happening on the, um, listing side?

Ryan Wyse: The exact opposite. So, new listings-

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: ... through 11 months of the year, already the most in 20 years. So, if not a single person listed their house or condo or townhome for sale in December, we would still-

Ryan Berlin: Hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... have a two-decade high, an all-time high-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse:... in new listings.

Ryan Berlin: Wow.

Ryan Wyse: So some of those will be relistings, people who didn't sell their home. It expired, put it back on the market, but that's a phenomenon that happens every year, probably more, more this year. But overall, those two things combined, we now have inventory that's still close to 50% above average, and there's quite a bit of seasonality with inventory. The numbers come down a lot at the end of the year. But we will still... We headed into December with more than 22,000, um, and we're looking at, you know, finishing the year at a level that we've never seen before in this market.

Ryan Berlin: So lots of choice?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: There you go.

Ryan Berlin: Lots of choice if you're looking. So that's sort of like the- the one, two on the- on the broad region, but this market in the Vancouver region, which extends to Pemberton, has lots of nuance, um, within it. So, within the Sea to Sky corridor, so that's like Squamish through Whistler to Pemberton, what is that market looking like? And either one of you can jump in on that one.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, I mean, I look at the... I see the media headlines every single day, and to be honest, I try not to focus so much on that and try to feel what the market's doing. Obviously, as a realtor up there, I get to see firsthand kind of what's happening. Is my phone ringing? Are people asking for showings? My listing count... Yes, my listing count is up. Um, I have listed a lot of homes this year, but I would also say we've had pretty average sales numbers as well. Obviously, coming from 2021, which was the peak-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Carleigh Hofman: ... uh, we are down a bit from that. But yeah, things are selling, and I think a lot of it is to do with... I mean, you have to get realistic with price, for one. People that wanted two-year-ago pricing are getting a bit more realistic. But I also am just seeing that there's a lot of families, for instance, in Squamish. Um, you know, they're getting into the home market. So there's, like, multiple offers happening on detached homes quite often in Squamish. And in Whistler, it's not one of those places you wanna get out of. Uh, so-

Ryan Berlin: Once you're in. Yeah

Carleigh Hofman: ... once you're in, you wanna stay in-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Carleigh Hofman: ... and so it doesn't really matter what the market's doing in that capacity because if you're selling and buying in the same market, you might sell a bit lower, but you're gonna get a bit lower. And I'm just finding that people are... that's what most people are doing. They're not actually leaving Whistler altogether. Um, there is some people that are, you know, aging out of Whistler because of the lifestyle-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Carleigh Hofman:... but-

 Ryan Berlin: Mm

Carleigh Hofman: ... for the most part, people, you know, if anything they're- they're- they've had a condo and now their family's gotten larger or they're spending more time there, um, and they're moving up the market. So, there's quite a bit tha- of that happening through the Sea to Sky.

Ryan Berlin: Right, yeah. And I mean, for Whistler specifically, interest rates don't impact that segment of the market, or that market as much as they do the rest of this region, right?

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, I mean, there's things to offset those hurdles. So, you know, we have tourism accommodation zoning, so a lot of Whistler can still be Airbnb'd.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: We don't have those bans. We didn't have a foreign buyer ban, so we still have foreign investment happening. We still have purchasers that are coming here that can't buy in Vancouver, and they're like, "Well, why wouldn't I just buy in a world-class ski resort that's an hour and a half from the city?"

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: Um, so we definitely have some, you know, perks that make it work for people, and I think when you're looking, say you have two homes, someone's over-extended and tr- interest rates are affecting you, they might off- sell off their Vancouver home because they can't offset-

Ryan Berlin: Right

Carleigh Hofman: ... that hit with rental or, you know, even long-term rent in Whistler. Because there's n- no more to be built really, like, the values have just held both in rental, short-term rental, and even selling. So yeah, we've been a bit more protected there, I guess, from the- the interest rate hurdles.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: And then you also, we were talking before we started recording, um, about what you're seeing in terms of the- the profile of the buyer that you are seeing. There's a relationship between what happens in Whistler's real estate market and what's happening, say, in the stock market, and you're seeing buyers from Toronto sort of leveraging gains that they've made, um, in their investments over the last couple of years and bringing that to this market.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, I think there's... Well, for my business especially, I- I obviously had a history in the stock market and finance, so, um, prior jobs, so a lot of my clients are from that world, so I think that's why I see a bit more of it too.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: But, um, I do see that people... I mean, right now the markets are great. I don't see a ton of people selling out right at this minute. But, you know, as they make gains, you know, it's- it's always this thing. Everyone wants this Whistler cabin. It's kind of-

Ryan Berlin: Hmm

Carleigh Hofman: ... this pipe dream for especially Vancouver residents.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: They all want their second home, and I- I do see a- a close correlation to the stock market having gains and people pulling out, um, some money and- and buying in Whistler. That- that definitely is happening quite a bit.

Ryan Berlin: Right. And checking that one off the, um, bucket list, right? Buying real estate in Whistler.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: It's an important thing in life, you know?

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: Um, what about sort of data-wise?

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: What are you seeing? Like, how do you- how would you describe- So I think- ... the Sea to Sky? Yeah. Like, you know, we talk so much about the overall market, the high-level stuff, but within that market there's, you know, 26 different MLS sub areas. And so Squamish for example, uh, has been the-... I guess, you'd say, quote, "best performing MLS area in the Vancouver region." So sales are up year over year 15%. They're only, um, 7% below average. It's the closest to average of any sub-market in the region. Whistler a bit less, like 4% down year over year. But when we're talking about these like huge declines in, in transaction activity everywhere else, or most everywhere else-

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse:... uh, I think that the sort of the Sea to Sky kind of stands out as a market that's been better performing. And I think it's interesting too because Squamish and Whistler are also so different from each other in terms of-

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... who's buying, what the rationale is.

Carleigh Hofman: I mean, I think a lot of people too, like after COVID pandemic, um, you know, people were able to work from home f- from home more often.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: Um, Squamish has become like a vibrant young family community.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: Um, I do wonder what's gonna happen a little bit, because we do have a lot of pre-sales that are completing this year, um, or in the next six months. So there is gonna be an influx of condo inventory.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: Most people are completing on them. There will be an influx of rental as a result, but there's definitely the demand to fill it. Like it seems like the demand is filling it. And that was always-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Carleigh Hofman: ... the, the question. The last year was like, is there gonna be enough demand to fill it? And it seems like, you know, it- there is. So and the, the thing about the product that's being built, um, in Squamish is a lot of them are larger. They're built for outdoor recreation. Um, so even people that are selling here out of a condo and, say, moving there to a condo, the size of them are actually quite a bit larger. You get storage.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: Um, there's just, there's a, the product that was built was smartly built for-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Carleigh Hofman: ... recreation and for young families.

Ryan Berlin: And for families. Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: There's space, there's room. And where unlike, you know, in the city, they're, they're built a little bit different. So, um-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Carleigh Hofman: ... yeah, I just think people are moving more to places, you know, that have, you know, the, the young families. They're, they're all moving to places that have a lot of outdoor recreation. And what better place than Squamish here on the ocean waterfront?

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: It's unbelievable. And you got the mountains in your backyard. You're 40 minutes from Vancouver. You're 40 minutes from Whistler. You're kind of smack dab in the middle. So it is a place people can live and still commute for work. It's a place people can live and have, you know, an abundance of opt- options for children. Um, but it also, you know, gets you to and from two very great places, Whistler and, and Vancouver.

Ryan Berlin: Absolutely.

Carleigh Hofman: So. [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Maybe this is a good time to, um, shamelessly plug one of the projects that we are, um, uh, selling, a project called Arte in Squamish. It's 80 homes, a mix of one to three bedrooms located in downtown Squamish. Uh, the developer's a local one, 30 Squamish. Um, appreciates and understands the local community and needs and buyers and all of that stuff. It's currently selling, if I'm not mistaken, the first 20 deals... For the first 20 deals, uh, you only have to put, uh, 10% down as a deposit, which is, which is really great.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Kind of lowers that hurdle.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah. They're very nice too.

Ryan Berlin: Um, in their

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Um, so... that's, that's my plug. That's one of five wood frame projects that's currently pre-selling in that market. There's not... So I mean, it's a small market. There's not a lot happening there. But more broadly, the pre-sale market in this region has been, um, pretty slow through-

Ryan Wyse: Yes

Ryan Berlin: ... three quarters.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So we don't have 20 years of historical data on this, but we are on pace for our slowest year in terms of... We'll call them new home sales. Again, so much of the new home market now is completed inventory, under construction inventory-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse: ... much less pre-sale. But we are on pace for a s- for our slowest year for new home sales across this region, uh, since the data began tracking in 2012.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: By quite a bit. So the, the, the old record low was around 9,000 sales and we're on pace to do maybe six or seven with one quarter remaining. So yeah, it's, it's a different world today, even with so much completed inventory sort of being available to a lot more of those end user buyers-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... those young families and stuff we're really seeing is that people have taken a step back from that segment of the market.

Ryan Berlin: So in a nutshell, where we're at now with the market has kind of been... I don't know if it's been a steady state since the start of the year, but it's felt like, I know going month to month and looking at the data and talking about the market, it doesn't feel like there's been a big shift in that story throughout the year.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: It's just been sluggish sales, broadly speaking, talking, talking greater Vancouver.

Carleigh Hofman: Broad.

Ryan Wyse: 30,000 foot view.

Ryan Berlin: Yes. [laughs]

Carleigh Hofman: No, it's, it's-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Carleigh Hofman: ... definitely been... I've never had to work harder, I'll say that. It's been good, but it's-

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: It's I've never had to work harder than I have in the last-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Carleigh Hofman: ... probably year.

Ryan Berlin: And I mean, it brings some benefits too with, with prices softening a little bit and, um, and, and there being more inventory. Um, you know, for a market that was starved for choice for so long-

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... it's a welcome change for-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... many, many people-

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... who participate.

Carleigh Hofman: There's opportunities in every market.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Um, let's pivot to the bigger picture here and talk about maybe not the market directly, but some things that impact the market. Let's start with the budget.

Ryan Wyse: Okay.

Ryan Berlin: I don't think we've recorded a podcast-

Ryan Wyse: We haven't

Ryan Berlin: ... since the budget was, uh, released. In sum, what's your takeaway?

Ryan Wyse: Nothing on housing or nothing new-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Virtually nothing

Ryan Wyse: ... on housing. So Build Canada Homes, which was previously announced as sort of the centerpiece of the housing component to the budget. Our opinion on this is it won't have a material impact on the overall market. It will probably bring some much needed affordable housing to some communities across the country, um, but not a market mover per se. And there's a whole bunch of policies that were kicked around during the election that ultimately weren't included. And so there's Build Canada Homes, there's the GST rebate for first time end user buyers, those are both in and proceeding. The MURB, the Multi-Unit Residential...

Ryan Berlin: Benefit?

Ryan Wyse: Benefit? Um, so it's a-

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: ... should have looked that one up before we started recording. It is a, uh, purpose-built rental tax policy from the 1970s that was really instrumental in getting a lot of purpose-built rental built through, uh, tax write-offs, that was not included. Uh, there was no expansion of the GST rebate, which had been kicked around a little bit. There w- really wasn't much else. So, um, don't expect a lot from the federal government on housing.

Ryan Berlin: ... directly.

Carleigh Hofman: Is there anything to do with the underused housing tax on that one?

Ryan Berlin: Well, so that's, uh, th- that is going away.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: And I think that, I mean, which is, i- that was just really... That was confusing and complicated-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... for a lot of Canadians.

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Um, redundant too in certain markets like-

Carleigh Hofman: It was a-

Ryan Berlin: ... Wh- ours here. But how about-

Carleigh Hofman: It was-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, for Whistler.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, it was a big thing for Whistler, because obviously, a lot of people's homes in Whistler are secondary homes.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: So, you know, be told how much you have to use it is a hard thing to swallow for some people that are overseas. And the amount was not small, 'cause the value of homes, the assessed value of homes are not small in Whistler.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: So yeah. It definitely had a, a big effect on, on Whistler, so that'll be a huge... Another win for Whistler. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Well, that's what it does. I mean, I think, I think-

Carleigh Hofman: We don't have foreign buyer ban, we don't have un- you know, all these things, if they get taken away, it just opens another opportunity there for people, so.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, absolutely.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: And also DCCs.

Ryan Wyse: Yes.

Ryan Berlin: Um, the government, um, had pledged, uh, previously to, um, reduce development cost charges, charges associated with new development by 50%.

Ryan Wyse: By 50%.

Ryan Berlin: Didn't say how they were gonna do that.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: And then it turns out when it's time to put the budget together, they didn't want to actually answer that question or deal with it at all, because it was, they were just mum on it.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: So, uh, it doesn't sound like anything's happening on that front, um, in the near term. But also along with the budget, the government released its immigration and updated immigration levels plan as it does every year, and that relates to setting targets for... Historically, it's been permanent residents. Uh, more recently it's, and more meaningfully, it's been non-permanent residents. So what does that look like? Is there, is there a sh- is there, is there a material shift in how the, the government is viewing migration-

Ryan Wyse: Uh-

Ryan Berlin: ... as it relates to the population and economy?

Ryan Wyse: No, I would say they're taking a mulligan. So the permanent resident component is largely going to continue as it has. They, uh, sort of reinforced their permanent resident targets, pushed them out another year. So we're back to like pre-pandemic levels of permanent resident additions. For the non-permanent resident component, the goal of reducing the stock of non-permanent residents in Canada from a high of just over 7% of the population back to 5%, uh, has been pushed out by a year. So they've made almost no progress in the first year of this commitment, and so instead of trying to complete this by the end of 2026, they're now gonna attempt to do it by the end of 2027, um, which still means a net outflow of like a million people in two years.

Ryan Berlin: Right. Over two years.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. Which was the original target, which we've had a net outflow of like 50,000 people over one year. So lots more work to be done. I am a little bit skeptical they can achieve it, but if they do, it means population loss in 2026 and 2027.

Ryan Berlin: So pushing that out, 'cause previously, we were expecting population declines in Canada and in, in metro Vancouver- ... in '25 and '26. But now we have, we still have two years of loss just pushed out a year and in place of that, in the near term, in 2025, we expect... I think our model says the slowest growth i- since in, in, in 80 years in Canada?

Ryan Wyse: Nationally, and we're on pace for population loss in BC.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Yes, we are. Yes, we are.

Ryan Wyse: So we'll see. We'll get some updated population numbers over the next week or so, but this really is just kind of pushing out this really challenging target of acknowledging a mistake with how, uh, the non-permanent resident program was run, or not really run, um, and trying to o- correct it as quickly as possible, and I think creating some new problems along the way.

Ryan Berlin: Also, maybe creating some opportunity for young workers, which we'll touch on in a moment, 'cause I wanted to talk a bit about the jobs data-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... that came out just a few days ago, and I put together this memo that I shared around the office and, and so coming out of that, some notes were, I mean, the, at the headline level, big job gains, like unexpectedly high. What was the numbers? Uh, 54,000 net additional jobs in November across the country, almost entirely in the private sector, which is generally seen as good news. Those tend to be more productive jobs. We had, we have been seeing over, um, you know, the past number of years a lot of growth in public sector employment, not necessarily displacing private sector job growth, but, but, but gaining more than we were seeing in the private sector. So that was welcome news, and we also saw big gains in the number of jobs, uh, held by people 15 to 24 years old, so that younger cohort. The unemployment rate fell nationally hugely from 6.9% to 6.5%. This is the first time it's been at that level, uh, since July of 2024, so almost a year and a half. So, there's a lot of good news in there. Few points that require explanation or, or a bit more, uh, exploration. So 54,000 total jobs were added. Um, if you look at part-time versus full-time, part-time grew by 63,000, so that means that the number of full-time jobs actually fell in November. So to the extent that people are choosing to work part-time, 'cause there's all kinds of reasons you would.

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Um, uh, you might be in school and, like, you don't have any interest in being full-time. If part-time employment is growing because people would prefer full-time, but they just can't find a full-time gig, that's generally not a great thing. I don't know if you have any data on that.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, so that, the, the share of people working part-time who want to work full-time but are unable to has been growing for the past 18 months or so-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... but the last couple of months it's actually been falling. So the- it's a higher share of people working part-time who want to work part-time either because of other stuff going on in their life or what- whatever the reason is. So that number has actually been following- falling the past couple of months.

Ryan Berlin: ... in addition, um, if you look at how people are feeling about the job market, feelings, we don't talk about feelings very much on this podcast or in our-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... in our jobs, do we? So, the proportion of people feeling secure in their jobs is at about 74%, which sounds pretty good. Like-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... three out of four people feel pretty good, but it is- ... down four percentage points from the last time people were asked this question through this labor force survey, which was a couple years ago. So that, if that's our baseline, people feel a little less secure today.

Carleigh Hofman: It's not bad though for how-

Ryan Berlin: I, I was actually surprised.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: The global-

Ryan Wyse: Global uncertainty?

Carleigh Hofman: ... uncertainty. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: Word of the year.

Carleigh Hofman: Our favorite word.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: I thought that number would be closer to like 50% to two thirds.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Um, I thought it would've been a bigger- a bigger-

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... decline there. But so there's, you can take what you want out of that-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: ... out of that, um, that data point. The proportion reporting feeling like it would be easy to find a new job at a similar salary, so this one's not as good, is about just over 40%. You know, that says that maybe people are hunkering down where they are.

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: They kinda look around, they go, "Well, I hope..." [laughs] Maybe they're feeling really optimistic about keeping their job, maybe overly optimistic. But yeah, they look around and say, "May- maybe the opportunities aren't out there for me." So, that's down six percentage points from two years ago. So, I think those are things to watch. Those are sort of below the surface measures of what's happening in the labor market and of economic performance that I think matter. But again, at a high level, um, you know, we're seeing fairly good- fairly good numbers. That 15 to 24-year-old group.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, so it's been really tough, not just in Canada but, uh, countries around the world for that age group. And we'd seen a lot of deterioration in that space for- for again about 18 months or so. But we've now seen the participation rate for 15 to 24-year-olds is rising past couple of months. And by the way, for everyone 15 plus, it actually fell quite a bit last month that's part of the reason. The unemployment rate came down was fewer people actually participating in the labor force. 15 to 24-year-olds up the employment rate, the share of all 15 to 24-year-olds working up the last couple of months, and the share of 15 to 24-year-olds working part-time who want to be working part-time up the past couple of months.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Ryan Wyse: So all of these things sort of trending more positively for that age group. Still these numbers are, you know, it's- it's like the best since April of 2024, but not great historically, but definitely positive trends for that age group for sure.

Ryan Berlin: And yeah. Possibly-

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: ... possibly tied to, I mean, we haven't- we haven't connected this directly-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... but possibly tied to the- the immigration policies that relates to the non-permanent residents.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: So it's temporary foreign workers, you know, in construction, in retail, in food services who are now starting in net- in net numbers starting to leave Canada that may be at the margin opening up some opportunity for younger workers. For Whistler, you know, the local job market, I don't think it matters that much for Whistler.

Carleigh Hofman: I mean, we all need jobs.

Ryan Berlin: We all need jobs-

Carleigh Hofman: Sure. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: ... but in terms of the-

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: ... I mean, if you look at price points and the types of properties that are transacting there and who the buyers are-

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... do- like, do you see much of a connection between like how the local Vancouver economy is doing and what's happening in Whistler?

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, I mean, let's be frank, it's a luxury to own in- in Whistler. Um, it's more of a want than a need. Uh, housing in Vancouver is more of a necessity. So what we deal with up there is a different caliber of purchaser that, you know, this is a second home in most- most instances.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: Um, so we're not seeing the same focus on everything going on in the world. They're not coming to Whistler to look at homes unless they have the ability to do that. But, I mean, at the same time it's, when people are thriving in Vancouver, that is when they're purchasing in Whistler. And-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. I was-

Carleigh Hofman: ... it's a funny disconnect right now because everything you're saying kinda points to things being softer but we're still seeing a lotta sales happening in Whistler and Squamish and-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Carleigh Hofman: ... you know, the Sea to Sky corridor. So, yeah, so it's a kind of its own little world there, but I mean, Squamish, yes, the labor market's definitely a fact. And, you know, where people work really matters, um, 'cause that dictates where they need to live.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: Not people that are gonna have to work, you know, two hours away from Squamish aren't going to live in Squamish. So, it's just, there's a lotta factors that play into that, but yeah, I mean, Whistler on its own is not as affected by the- the labor markets-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Carleigh Hofman: ... in Vancouver.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Squamish as you mentioned, obviously a very different type of market.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Um, where you have a lot of families, um, choosing to move there or- or couples choosing to raise kids there. And there's still that value delta there-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... where it makes sense like if you're looking for something quote unquote affordable, relatively affordable-

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... in this market, then, you know, Squamish is-

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah. It's still there

Ryan Berlin: ... is- is a good option.

Carleigh Hofman: For sure.

Ryan Berlin: But most people are- are- are working and engaged in- in the local economy as well.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah. And I mean, Whistler's, you're buying there for a lifestyle, so part of it is lifestyle. It's not just about, you know, how expensive the home is or, you know, it- there's- there's a huge lifestyle component that you also take into consideration when you're purchasing in Whistler.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: Um, and that's usually why people come there. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: That also means for you as an advisor, like it- the exercise of pricing a home, like whether you're working for an owner who's- who's listing or you're representing buyers-

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: .. is that... You operate mostly in Whistler now.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: But like is that exercise different there than it is in other markets that maybe you're guided by fundamentals a bit more in the sense that like you really need to know your, like who your seller is and what motivates them and- and- and the same for the buyers?

Carleigh Hofman: Correct, but also it's very hard to explain to a buyer that's not familiar, but like, all of Whistler, you can drive the whole thing in 15 minutes. And it's very hard to wrap people's head around the value of, say, one neighborhood that is the same house as another neighborhood that could be double the price. And y- you know, when you're looking at it from a- a broad picture, you're like how can these be-... such different prices. Um, so it's very important to work with a local person that understands, like, the values of every single neighborhood. And there's, it comes down to such microelements, like how close you are to be able to ski from your door, versus you're gonna drive to the ski hill. All these factors that come into play. Um, but yeah. When you're listing a home there, it's, it's, you know, you have to know every little bit. And it's also so dictated on the inventory at the time. Like, there is times where I'm like, "Now is not the time to list this house." And it's gonna sound crazy, but I'm like, "There's eight homes that are in this price bracket."

Ryan Berlin: Which is too many. [laughs]

Carleigh Hofman: That is a, that is a lot. So we wait for a few of those to sell before we, we list your house. Um, because the average buyer that comes to Whistler, they, they're maybe there for a weekend to look. And they're gonna buy, it's, it's not their full-time home most of the time. They buy the best of what they seen that day. They're not spending weeks and weeks and weeks hunting for that perfect home necessarily, because A, there's not a lot to choose from in Whistler. Our corridor is small. But B, it's a second home, nine times out of 10. And you know, there, we do, I live there, so obviously there is people that live there. Um, 15,000 of us approximately, that do look for the perfect home for themselves. And then, you know, we deal with those buyers as well. And that's a different search altogether, because you know, instead of looking for how to be the village the quickest or how to be on the ski hill the quickest, it's like, "Oh, how, you know, how quick can my kid get to school?"

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: You know, "Can they take the valley trail? How close are we to the lake?" Like, those factors matter to people. So yeah, it's, it's a very small market, but it's super important to understand every single neighborhood and how they differ from each other, and what they offer to each individual purchaser. 'Cause some people are in Whistler for summer. They wanna ... We have more visitors now in the summer than we do in the, in the winter.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. That's when I go.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah. People love the lakes, the golf courses, the valley trail, restaurants. We have unbelievable restaurants now. Um, but you know, the skiing population, they're buying a different ... Like, they're buying now, and they're buying a different product than somebody coming in the summertime.

Ryan Berlin: That's right. Local expertise always matters.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, you gotta hire a local.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, especially so in Whistler.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah. [laughs] It's very important.

Ryan Berlin: So 100% [laughs].

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: So just, just to wrap here. So, you know, we look at the jobs data, there's, there's more good than not.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. And a few months in a row of more good than not.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, yeah. It does feel like we might be slowly turning a corner here. And then we even had, um, Q3 GDP data come out recently. It said that we technically narrowly avoided a recession in, in quarters-

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs] Just kidding

Ryan Berlin: ... in the middle of the year. Yeah, I mean, it's just ... Listen, before you get too excited-

Carleigh Hofman: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: ... like, our economy essentially stalled over that period, but it didn't, didn't contract for six months. So, I guess that's good news. So the Bank of Canada's meeting on December 10th. By the time you're watching or listening to this, you will know what they've done. We are not privy to that at, at, at this point. What do you think the bank's gonna do, given the totality of the data and information we have now on the economy?

Ryan Wyse: I mean, they'll hold. I think, you know, take them at their word that they plan to hold. There's been no recent data releases to kind of put them off that course.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: They said, you know, last time that if, uh, the economy continues to unfold the way they expect, there's no need to cut rates anymore. So they want to hold as long as possible here. They want to let, uh, some of these new policies kind of run their course. They want to see inflation come down a bit more. It's kind of a little bit sticky high in and around 2.5%. Um, and so I think they really want to stay where they are at 2.25% for their policy rate.

Ryan Berlin: Unfortunately, unlike in the United States, they're not feeling pressure from our head of state to, uh, lower rates, when, when really they should, they should be holding.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] Yes.

Ryan Berlin: For Whistler, we talked earlier about interest rates not mattering as much to that market. Um, but you have a cool data point that you wanted to shoehorn in here.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Um, now, you're not gonna go as far as to say like, "Doesn't matter what happens to rates in 2026."

Carleigh Hofman: No.

Ryan Berlin: But what's your ... What did you wanna share?

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, it just, it doesn't affect Whistler as much, because I went on a deep dive to tr- I did this recently, to try and understand how many m- uh, titles in Whistler actually have mortgages on them, and it came to a resounding 33% to 38%. And compared to Vancouver, which is closer to 60-ish percent, I think a lot of this has to do with, you know, there's a lot of homes that get passed down through families. They've been fully paid off. So yeah, when you're looking at, will people be desperate to sell because of interest rates in Whistler, I don't think there's a lot of that going on.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: Um, most of them, a lot of them [laughs] are paid off.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Carleigh Hofman: So.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, it's a different market altogether from that standpoint as well.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it definitely serves as a, as a stabilizer of the market. I mean, yeah, I mean, in metro Vancouver with 40% of households essentially owner, owner households not having a mortgage, that does, it does create a bit of a buffer against rate fluctuations. Obviously we've just gone through a period of rate fluctuations and we know that did impact the market.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: But-

Carleigh Hofman: I mean-

Ryan Berlin: ... uh, probably mitigated what we saw to a certain extent.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah. I can't see, you know, lines of credit. You know, I, I can't see what kind of debt people have taken on their home other than a mortgage. So obviously there could be a bit of that. But yeah, for the most part there's ... And I do see it, people coming in, there's a lot of cash, cash purchases happening.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. The Stats Can mortgage-free data includes home equity lines of credit.

Carleigh Hofman: Oh, does it? Okay. Good to know.

Ryan Berlin: So if you have a home equity line of credit, then you are not considered mortgage-free.

Carleigh Hofman: Perfect. Well, then that number is fairly accurate then.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. So let's move on to the final segment here. We have a question from, uh, listener Lauren in Vancouver.

Listener Question: Hi Ryan and Ryan. This is Lauren from Vancouver. I know the market usually slows down a, a little around the holidays, but is this the case in places like Whistler? It feels like a lot of buyers are kind of holding off right now, but I'm wondering if resort markets are behaving any differently.

Carleigh Hofman: I mean, technically yes, over Christmas holidays we do see a slowdown.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: It's when I try to, you know, unplug a little bit. Um, but it is also our busy season when lots of people are in town, and so it's actually a great time to have your home listed because it gets a lot of eyes on it. It's a great time to market homes in Whistler. We have a lot of bodies that come through Whistler at that time. Um, so yes, it, it does ... I would say sales aren't as prevalent, but-... it's a good time to have your home marketed because there's a lot of bodies that come through a resort town like Whistler.

Ryan Berlin: I don't know what to call it if it's your intuition or what, but the data support what you just said. So I pulled the sales on a quarterly basis for Whistler-

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... coming out of WLS.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: And if you look at Q4 sales in each of the last 10 years versus the average quarterly sales in the first three quarters of the year-

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... in seven out of 10 years, the Q4 transactions were lower.

Carleigh Hofman: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: So... And that is like, that's very typical of- Mm-hmm [laughs] Whistler's a resort market, non-resort market. It's the broader market that's-

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: We typically see that. People are less interested in real estate around the holidays.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, and they're using their homes.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: They don't wanna be bothered with showings.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, absolutely.

Carleigh Hofman: And I always have to convince my sellers, like, it's a good time to stay on the market.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: You don't need to... You- you know, we can always schedule showings around your holiday, you know, guests and everything, but for the most part, it's like y- you know, people aren't doing transactions over their Christmas holidays. They're- they're focused on family and-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Carleigh Hofman: ... skiing and friends and enjoying Whistler. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Final question for you.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: What do you... What do you expect at the beginning of 2026 for Whistler, for that market? Anything, like a continuation of what we've seen? Do you think there's maybe some renewed optimism? Do you expect the market to pick up?

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, I think... I honestly think actually Q4, your numbers probably say it's down, but I- I do feel like just...  I'm one of those people that tries not to focus on the headlines because it can be negative right now, especially. And I, as a realtor, I was kind of saying earlier, like, I f- I... Honestly, my call volume and my phone t- tells me a lot about what's happening.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: And it has been busy, and I'm-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: Honestly, even our- our office in Whistler, like, we've been trying to meet up to have an office meeting, and everyone's just... It seems like everyone's quite busy right now. So I do s- feel like things are improving. I think people are kinda settling into the new norm of what this global world is. The uncertainty isn't as uncertain as it once was. Um, I think people are getting used to new norms-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Carleigh Hofman: ... tariffs, all of these things. And, um, you know? And then again, the stock market has been fairly strong through all of this. Um, so I feel like there is some confidence. Uh, and especially in a market like Whistler, like I was saying, it's fairly buffered by, you know, like, even global things that happen. Um, you're always gonna have visitors. You're always gonna have renters. You're always gonna be able to nightly rent in- in many areas of our market. And for that, it is one of the safer places to invest, uh, in a home.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Carleigh Hofman: And the perk of all of that is you also get the Whistler lifestyle with it. So yeah, I do see 2026 actually holding some strength, if not more than 2025. And that's, yeah, it's just what I'm feeling. I am not-

Ryan Berlin: Valid.

Carleigh Hofman: I'm not looking at the overarching... It- it... Because as we- we learned on this podcast today, we don't act the same as other places.

Ryan Berlin: That's right.

Carleigh Hofman: There's these micro markets within the overarching market that act entirely different for their own reasons, so...

Ryan Berlin: Great. That, they do.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: We'd love to answer your real estate questions. Uh, you can email us at intel@rennie.com, or you can leave a voicemail at speakpipe.com/therenniepodcast, and we'll try to respond in our next episode.

Ryan Berlin: Carleigh, before we wrap up, any final advice for anyone who's considering selling or buying?

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, I mean, like I said, it's just... It's all relative. If you're selling to buy in a similar market, don't be afraid of it, you know? Take the advice of your realtor on pricing, even if it feels lower than two years ago, 'cause you're buying in also lower than two years ago. So I think it's important to stay in your markets. I don't see this deflation lasting forever. We live in one of the most beautiful places in the world. You look at all the turmoil happening elsewhere, we're very, very fortunate to be here, and I think the outcome of that will show in real state prices in the future. And we just have to be patient. [laughs] I think that's a important factor in this market, is patience.

Ryan Berlin: Agree. Yeah. Yeah. And if anyone wants to, who's listening or watching, wants to get in touch with you, how can they do that?

Carleigh Hofman: Um, chofman@rennie.com is my email. Um, otherwise, I'm quite active on Instagram. Uh, my handle is @realtorcarl. Um, and yeah. Feel free to reach out for anything you need, Whistler, Squamish, even Vancouver.

Ryan Berlin: Amazing.

Carleigh Hofman: I mostly lean on these guys, though, for the intel, so... [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Uh, thanks for the plug.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah.

 Ryan Berlin: Yeah. And thanks for being here.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, thank you for having me.

Ryan Berlin: Really great to have you finally.

Carleigh Hofman: Yeah, it's awesome.

Ryan Berlin: Awesome. 

Thank you for joining us on The rennie Podcast. If you'd like to learn more or to subscribe to intelligence updates, go to rennie.com/intelligence.