hot July, cool August: what the data really says

The rennie podcast is about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Tune in for monthly discussions making sense of the latest market data.
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EPISODE #79: HOT JULY, COOL AUGUST: WHAT THE DATA REALLY SAYS

A hot July, a cool August, and mixed signals. Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence Ryan Berlin and Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager Ryan Wyse sit down with rennie advisor Joanne Hoekstra to unpack what the latest data says about inventory, prices, and buyer behaviour. They also look at the softening economy, the odds of rate cuts, and why some new home projects are still finding traction.

Featured guests:

Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence

Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager

⁠Joanne Hoekstra, rennie advisor

Thank you for tuning in to The rennie Podcast, where we share our passion for homes, housing, community, and cities. We hope today’s episode sparked the same curiosity in you that drives us every day. If you enjoyed the conversation, don’t forget to subscribe and follow us on your favorite podcast platform. And if you have a moment, we’d love for you to leave a review—it helps others discover the insights, analysis, and perspective we bring from the rennie Intelligence division. For the latest market updates, be sure to register at rennie.com.

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TRANSCRIPT

Ryan Berlin: The benchmark detached home price in the valley went up by 76%.

Joanne Hoekstra: And then all of a sudden we got, you know, hit by the macro factors that happened in the economy and they pulled back.

Ryan Wyse: I don't think this is our new normal. I think we're, you know, been dealing with so many external shocks.

Ryan Berlin: Given everything that's impacting it right now, there's so much that's uncertain and we'll, we'll, we'll dig into that in, in a moment. A slowing economy means that the door opens a little bit wider for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates.

Joanne Hoekstra: Still the best city to live in, right?

Ryan Berlin: Still the best.

Ryan Wyse: That's right.

[Introduction]

Welcome to the rennie Podcast, where we talk about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Our goal is to empower you to make informed decisions and provide context for the real estate world around you. We hope that with every episode you will become a little more knowledgeable and a lot more curious. [instrumental music plays]

Ryan Berlin: Welcome to The rennie Podcast. I'm Ryan Berlin, rennie's Vice President of Intelligence and Head Economist.

Ryan Wyse: And I'm Ryan Wyse, rennie's Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst.

Ryan Berlin: And for the second time, but the first time in a long while, we're joined by rennie Advisor, Joanne Hoekstra, who's been an advisor with rennie for 11 years. You've been one of our top performing realtors, a Medallion Club member, and in addition to helping people buy and sell throughout Metro Vancouver, but I think you said mostly it's Tsawwassen-

Joanne Hoekstra: South, yeah, South Delta, White Rock, South Surrey, and then Vancouver. 

Ryan Berlin: Perfect, but you're also, uh, selling at Headwaters Bridge and Elliot project.

Joanne Hoekstra: I am.

 Ryan Berlin: Which is currently under construction in Ladner.

Joanne Hoekstra: In my hometown.

Ryan Berlin: Right, uh, it's very exciting too-

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... because that's kind of a one of a kind, isn't it?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: So we had Sean Wentworth on the podcast a few months ago, also a rennie advisor, uh, who we had had on previously back in 2021, like yourself. And, um, we were talking a bit about differences in the market then versus now. Obviously very different conditions, but for you, sort of day-to-day, how different is it?

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah, completely opposite from where, when we last met, right? The prices were on the rise. We were seeing rapid increases. Um, definitely in Tsawwassen, uh, where I live, there's, you know, every day price inflation on homes and neighbors were, you know, inquiring, "What's my home worth today versus last week?" Today we're kind of in the opposite position, right? A slower market, um, home prices have declined. Um, so much different situation.

Ryan Berlin: So maybe people still asking what their home is worth today versus a few months ago, but with a few extra beads of sweat on their forehead.

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: So, great. It's great to have you here.

Joanne Hoekstra: Thank you.

Ryan Berlin: And look forward to talking about, you know, the market broadly. Uh, we want to talk about the data from the summer. Um, it was- it was strange-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... because we had... It was a, it was a... I hate, I hate to say this, it was a tale of two months.

Joanne Hoekstra: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Uh, two different months. So we'll look at that. We'll also explore some of the broader macroeconomic data that, that is the context for our market here. Because it's really flashing red now, I think, for m- for most people. But it's also, you know, this is not that surprising to us, right? We've been talking about what we're seeing now, we've been highlighting it for many months. I would say more than a year at this point.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Um, so we'll explore some of that and what it means for the market. And then we want to pivot back and talk a bit about... It's a, it, it's a challenging market in resale and pre-sale. So, you know, what are you, Joanne, doing, what are developers doing to try to attract buyers to projects that are just not selling the way that they have been in the past? Okay, so let's, uh, start with the resale market. We have a lot of data on it. For would-be home buyers, it, it didn't seem like buying homes was the priority, broadly speaking, in August in this market.

Ryan Wyse: No, it wasn't. It wa- it's interesting because last month, in July, we noted that sort of seasonality was kind of out the window a little bit. So spring had been so depressed because of tariffs and everything else. So July, we actually had 3,400, give or take, MLS sales. Uh, which is actually much stronger, uh, than a lot of the previous months. It was the most sales in a month since October. And we sort of said, "Yeah, seasonality's out the window." It's less about when and more about just people feeling a little bit better. But maybe a few more people went on vacation in August. Like Ry- you were- you weren't even here for the July sales. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: I wasn't buying a home in August.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So you, um, you were still on vacation, um.

Joanne Hoekstra: I was on vacation, and I swear everybody was on vacation with me.

Ryan Berlin: Well, then that's why it happened.

Joanne Hoekstra: Where I wasn't. [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: So no one... Did no one go on vacation in July and then they all went in August-

Ryan Berlin: That's what happened

Ryan Wyse:... or-

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse:... or, you know, something else happening. But we just had just over 2,800 sales last month. Uh, which was much... A bigger drop off from July than you would typically see. It was the fewest sales in an August since 2012. So either seasonality was back or something else was at play. Maybe July was an outlier, or maybe the market is picking up and August was a bit of an outlier. We'll see. Um, but I'm, I'm kind of thinking about some of the reasons why this might be. And Joanne, I wanna ask you, do you think, based on the conversations you were having with buyers or sellers, were a lot of people who were transacting in July maybe those who originally wanted to go in spring and then got scared and held off? Or were the people, you know... They, they worked around their vacation schedules? Or like most people, was it just a life reason like, "I needed to transact this summer because of, you know, a change in circumstances"?

Joanne Hoekstra: I mean, I think this, the August factor definitely is at play, right? It is most typically, in my experience, in 10 years plus of real estate, when we're slowest in the beginning of August. We tend to see activity coming back towards the middle or end as we prep for fall. But also transactions are taking more time.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Joanne Hoekstra: Right? It's, there's a more thoughtful due diligent process-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Joanne Hoekstra: ... in terms of buying. There's more subject to sales in the market. So maybe we'll see that change again in September as those things kind of have factored in, and there's... You know, transactions start to close.

Ryan Wyse: Did you talk to anyone this summer who, who originally wanted to go in spring and then got spooked and then felt good in the summer? Or is that just us over reading into some of the consumer-

Joanne Hoekstra:[laughs]

Ryan Berlin: It's all-

Ryan Wyse: The consumer confidence metrics are... You know, they're challenging. Like we, we get a number and we ascribe a number. But like, I...... what, what number consumer confidence does, does any one of us have? I don't have like 50 one month and 60 the next. It's sort of an aggregate response to vibes, right?

Joanne Hoekstra: How do you measure buyer sentiment?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Joanne Hoekstra: It's very difficult, right?

Ryan Wyse: And so people do it, but-

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah

Ryan Wyse: ... you know, I'm, I'm just curious if you had anyone say, "I wanted to go in spring. I got scared and I waited and then I felt better in the summer."

Joanne Hoekstra: I think there was hesitation in spring or maybe people were preparing to hit the market in spring-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Joanne Hoekstra: ... and then all of a sudden we got, you know, hit by the macro factors that, uh, happened in the economy and they pulled back. And then as those settled, we started to see those listings come back-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Joanne Hoekstra: ... that, those buyers come back. So definitely there was a bit of that happening.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, I mean, it's also possible we're trying to ascribe reasons to one month of data in this case.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: It's possible that that was just an anomalous month. Um, and that, and maybe the August data is a bit more representative broadly of the state of the market currently. I mean, b- we need September's data and October's data and November's data to, to, to, to, um, you know, to flesh out that, that theory.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. And when transactions take longer or, you know, what day the long weekend hits, like all that stuff can actually tip, you know, sales from one month into the next or vice versa.

Joanne Hoekstra: Exactly.

Ryan Wyse: And we'll get more information as we move through September.

Ryan Berlin: But it was lower sales in August. There was also, uh, a slowdown in new listings. So we weren't seeing people, you know, list their homes in August relative to the numbers that we saw in July. There's always a, a decline there.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: But this year there was more of one.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So new listings came down month to month 24%, whereas, you know, typically you'd see 15. We've been dealing with elevated new listings-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... all year to varying degrees. So this was still, and maybe I'll use some air quotes here, the third busiest August, uh, for new listings over the past decade, which compared to earlier this year when a lot of these months were either the first or second busiest of the last decade, or in some cases, you know, the most 15 years. This is a pullback in the amount of new listings, even though we're still talking about overall a, a level that's somewhat elevated and inventory has still been falling. So even with elevated new listings and press sales, because partly just this happens a lot in summer, we get a lot of expires as well. Inventory peaked earlier, uh, this year than is typical. Usually peaks around July. It peaked earlier. And so we're seeing inventory meaningfully decline right now as we kind of hit that fall market.

Ryan Berlin: It's still high. It's still-

Ryan Wyse: Yes

Ryan Berlin:... I think like 50% above where it typically is.

Ryan Wyse: Yes.

Ryan Berlin: Which again, is great, it's great for buyers. I mean, on paper, so I guess it's a question for you, Joanne. Like, um, we look at the data, right? We're not realtors and we're not dealing at the individual home level typically, but we, you know, we see 24, 25,000 listings in a historical, you know, context. It's, it is high and it's been, you know, it was two years where we, where we saw, uh, over a two year period where listings basically doubled. So in- inventory on paper is

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: ... bloated. So it seems like there are a lot of options for buyers. So if you're a buyer right now, like if you look at the... And we'll talk about it a bit more in a few moments, but there's, you know, 16,000 homes in pre-sale that are available. We've got 24,000 and change available in resale. I don't think we've ever seen combined numbers like this before. So you're like, oh, if you're a buyer, all of a sudden you have all this choice. But from your perspective, i- is it, is it real choice? Because my sense is from w- you know, talking to people and looking at the data in different ways that sellers seem to be maybe, maybe listing a home at a certain price and not being that flexible in, in coming down and meeting their buyers.

Joanne Hoekstra: I definitely see that. I mean, I, I do feel that the popular pockets in-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

 Joanne Hoekstra: ... the lower mainland are still selling very well and very competitively, and the prices have not adjusted that much. The process as a buyer is, uh, like you- we're in a more balanced market, so they have time to, um, make their purchase, do their due diligence, and you're not necessarily-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Joanne Hoekstra: ... competing with other buyers. Inventory, I mean, there's a lot of inventory that maybe is not hitting the middle of the buyer market. Like, uh-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Joanne Hoekstra: ... it's like lots or building lots or, you know, homes that are not ready to move into or, you know, there's also that completed product, new product that, uh, could be pricing a little bit higher still. So, um, that, yeah.

Ryan Berlin: I, I guess what I'm trying to get at is, is it all real? Like, is it like I'm a buyer there and I've got like 24,000 homes I can choose from?

Joanne Hoekstra: So a lot of what we're seeing in the market in terms of inventory is maybe not suitable move-in ready product for-

Ryan Wyse: Like needs some work.

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Teardown, stuff like that. Yeah.

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah. And those types of lots, I mean, they're not flying right now, um-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Joanne Hoekstra:... because, uh, y- you know, there's just more of that available. So maybe less builders picking those up, less development, uh, kind of planning happening right now. But the, you know, the, the pockets that people wanna be in, that move-in ready product, it's moving, but buyers are, um, now being able to follow a more balanced process in terms of due diligence and they have more time to make their choice and to go through their subject removal and make sure it's the product that they want.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: So you're saying there's still lots of opportunity, just maybe not at some of the numbers that we're seeing in aggregate? [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah. Yeah. And you also see pre-sale, um, products being listed more, right? So, um-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Completed product or actual pre-sale?

Joanne Hoekstra: Or pre-sale product even.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Joanne Hoekstra: Right? Like, I'll list, you know, a dozen homes. So that can sway inventory a little bit as well as where we have more pre-sale inventory-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Joanne Hoekstra:... available. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. And in a, in a, a hotter market, if you will, you wouldn't-

Joanne Hoekstra: I wouldn't- 

Ryan Berlin: ... do that

Joanne Hoekstra:... put it on MLS. No.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Joanne Hoekstra: No.

Ryan Berlin: So sluggish sales and, and a lot more inventory. And that story, broadly speaking-... July aside, has been pretty consistent over the past year.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: What's happening with prices?

Ryan Wyse: So, prices have come off, but... And I think we've talked about this quite a bit this year. They've come off by less than I think you might expect in a high inventory environment and a sluggish sales environment. And also where, you know, the national media is talking about prices falling so much in some other markets in Canada. So, real quick, year to date in the Fraser Valley Board area, prices are down about 3%. In the Vancouver Board area, about 2. Over the past two years in The Valley, prices are down 9%. Uh, in the Vancouver Board area, 5% since peak. This is where you get some bigger numbers in The Valley.

Ryan Berlin: 2022. So, spring 2022?

Ryan Wyse: Thank you, yeah. So, early 2022. So, uh, a little over three years, prices are down in The Valley on average 21%. And in the Vancouver Board area, 9%. So, given everything we've been through, high inflation, high interest rates, high inventory, all of that stuff, prices have held up in the Vancouver Board area quite a bit.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, and I would say also, the context for that 21% decline-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... from peak in The Valley, I mean, that- that's significant. And that's over, that's not over, that's over three years. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Right? But within that, I was looking at the data separately, not- not in preparation for this podcast, but looking at it on a home type basis. And from- m- from the onset of the pandemic, so March of 2020, until the spring of 2022, it was a two-year period, the benchmark detached home price in The Valley went up by 76%.

Joanne Hoekstra:Wow.

Ryan Berlin: So, you know, the- the context is important.

Joanne Hoekstra: That's when I was here last, I remember. Yeah, yeah.

Ryan Berlin: [laughs] Yeah, exactly. That was like... Yeah.

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah, yeah.

Ryan Berlin: It was the- the crazy days.

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Probably needed to come back a little bit.

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, and at that- at the peak there, prices in The Valley were trading at only a 6% discount to those in the Vancouver Board area. The historical average prior to COVID was about, was like, a 45% discount, uh, or differential if you will. And now, it sits at about half of that. So, it's like, splitting the difference at- at ab- about 23%.

Joanne Hoekstra: And you can see why somebody that would have bought in that hot market is having trouble adjusting their expectations to sell in today's market, right?

Ryan Berlin: Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah, we've just... What did you say about the last five years, six years?

Ryan Wyse: So, if you take a step outside of real estate and look more broadly, we haven't had a normal year since 2019. We had a global pandemic. We had basically free money and then, then a big party in 2021.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, that was fun. 

Ryan Wyse: And we had- [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: [laughs] 

Ryan Wyse: ... high inflation, you know. 

Ryan Berlin: High interest rates.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. High- high inflation, leading to high interest rates. And then, of course, this year has been dominated by, uh, ludicrous trade policy. And we just ha- we haven't had a normal year. Uh, the 2010 to 2019 period in Canada, we went through all sorts of market cycles. We dealt with the first Trump administration doing some weird stuff. But overall, it was a pretty s

Ryan Berlin: The good old days. 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] Yeah. 

Joanne Hoekstra: Right? Maybe that's what August is back to, just a normal balanced market. 

Ryan Berlin: So that- that's a question I wanted to put to both of you, because we've been talking... Around the office, you know, we're sort of like, we were always... Anybody who's in real estate or not. I mean, if you're- if you're in the real estate game, even, um, just more- more generally, it's- it's like, "Well, where's the market going?" You know, we- we had expected that we were primed for a more active market towards the end of last year. Like, there was- there was some momentum there. And now, we're looking at it and going, "Huh, I wonder..." It's really hard to predict things in this market, given everything that's impacting it right now. There's so much that's uncertain, and we'll- we'll- we'll dig into that in- in- in a moment. But I hear whispers of like, "Hey, maybe this is the new normal." 

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Like, what we're seeing now. So, I wanted to put that to both of you. 

Ryan Wyse: You want to go first? 

Ryan Berlin: Like, how do you view this market? Is it- is it possibly our new normal? 

Joanne Hoekstra: It very well could be. I mean, it seems very balanced. Everything I've- I've said here today, it's... People are just able to move with more intention, time, you know, um, thoughtfulness through the process, um, from both sides, sellers and buyers. And it's more about, you know, putting together

Joanne Hoekstra: deals now than it is, you know, grabbing the first thing that comes up, right? Like, it's- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Joanne Hoekstra: It's working both sides of the equation every time in real estate. So, yeah. What do you think, Ry? 

Ryan Wyse: So, I think there's a good point about it's probably a better environment, particularly for buyers who can operate a little more easily, uh, and with more intention through this market. I don't think this is our new normal. I think we've been dealing with so many external shocks, especially this year, uh, unforeseen external shocks. Um, and last year at the end of the year, like, we started tracking back towards our old average, our- our past decade average for sales activity. October, November, December, January, and then we got hit again. And we all remember why we got hit. And so I think there is a new normal out there somewhere that doesn't look anything like 2021 or 2022, certainly, but we still have a lot of young people in this region who want to buy a home. Like, demographically speaking, we've grown a ton. And even with changes to immigration policy, that will continue to impact, particular our rental market more than our ownership market. We still have a lot of people who want to buy a home, who want to move either out of their parents' house or out of their roommate household that they're currently living in, and they've been challenged to do it. And so I still think there's a lot of pent-up demand, there's a lot of latent demand that we haven't seen actually enter this market yet that is still coming at some point.

Ryan Berlin: You're correct. Yeah. 

Joanne Hoekstra: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Um... 

Ryan Wyse: Do I win a prize? 

Ryan Berlin: You win a prize.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] Okay.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it's interesting. Yeah, like, I really like your perspective, and I- I think that, yeah, whereas for- for so long, it was like [laughs] speed-

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm

 Ryan Berlin: ... was such an important-... a feature of our market. Or, like, antici- [laughs] trying to anticipate listings, or even if the open house is on the weekend, it's like, "Can I see it before then?"

Ryan Wyse: Hmm.

 Ryan Berlin: And it was just, it was frenetic. It was, it was emotionally draining, uh, for everybody involved. Balance that we're seeing broadly is, is, um, you know, hopefully it's something that, that persists over time. But yeah, I, I mean, I tend to agree with you, Ry. Like, I look at where our market is through the first eight months of this year? And how many, if we look at resale, how many sales there, there have been? And based on what the, the last third of the year looks like historically, we're on pace right now for 33 to 35,000 sales across the entire region. And for context, the prior 10-year average was 48,000. So-

Ryan Wyse: The past two years were each around 40,000.

Ryan Berlin: 40, yeah. And, and in fact actually, if you take out 2021 and 2022, which were outliers, but I would say they're not ind- They don't exist independently. There were a lot of sales in those two years, low interest rates. But we talked at the time even about, you know, future transactions having been brought forward-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... because people are going to, "Well, I was gonna move in two years, but maybe-"

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: ... because of the pandemic, we'll move to the valley. There's more space, our money goes further, money's cheap, let's do this now." But anyway, if you take out 2021 and '22, and you look at that past decade average minus those two years, it's, it's, it's 40,000. So it's lower, and I can see a world where maybe we're closer to 40, but I think 33 to 35 is a low point right now. And there's too many unresolved issues more broadly. So I want to talk a bit more about those and, and, and what the economy is looking like and where it's trending. The data hasn't been very good. 

Ryan Wyse: No. [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: [laughs] For Canada.

 Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: And we got GDP data for quarter two recently. It showed a, a decline to the tune of an annualized 1.6% contraction. It was driven by a decline in exports, which there's some-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... yeah, mathy issues there because-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, it's really noisy because of all of the tariff threats and then some of the implementations. US businesses sort of did this front-running of tariffs where they imported a ton of stuff ahead of-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... tariff implementations. So they stockpiled inventories. And then in Q2, they just sat on them and sold them or used them in their, uh, in their production process, depending on the, the type of the business. So, there was a huge increase in Q1 and then a huge drop in Q2 that sort of averages out probably a little bit closer to what we would have expected them to do. Not just for Canada, but for other countries as well. And so we'll see what Q3 brings now that we know as of today, 'cause it always changes, tariffs on Canada haven't been that broad. We have a few sectoral tariffs, but mostly our free trade agreement is exempting tariffs on most of our exports to the US. So, all of that noise will probably even out to, like, a small decline in exports overall.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, I think that's, that's really important context. The other piece of it for Q2 was that business investment in machinery and equipment was down. And that makes sense, right? When you think about a very uncertain, you know, uh, economic context for a business, that's probably not the time you're gonna ramp up hiring. It's not the time you're gonna be buying land, investing in new production facilities, or investing in technology necessarily. I mean, of course some, some businesses do, some sectors you'll see that. But it's a time when you sort of sit back and try to understand the lay of the land, right? So you can actually forward plan. So, it made sense, but it was a contraction in the last, the last two months of jobs data was, uh, poor. [laughs].

Joanne Hoekstra: [laughs].

Ryan Wyse: Very.

Ryan Berlin: It was a, a net loss of over 100,000 jobs in Canada over those two months. So year-to-date in 2025, we have a, a, a net increase in employment of 40,000 jobs.

Joanne Hoekstra: And in, in all of those economic factors, do jobs not weigh on buyer sentiment kind of pretty high? Like-

Ryan Berlin: For sure. Well, that's what, you know. So, yeah, we've, we've been talking about this because we've been talking about Canada being a bit of like, like we're, we're a frog in a, in a, in a pot of boiling water, right? Month to month, the data that we're seeing on the economy and the labor market's like, eh, it's not getting that much worse. Like no, no major shifts, but we've seen a gradual decline in conditions for two years now. And we're, we're at the point where I think it's, it's not about other people losing their jobs and what that means for purchasing power and how it impacts markets, but now it's like, oh, well, everyone's thinking, am I gonna have a job?

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: What am I gonna be doing in six months and 12 months? I think that thinking pervades more, and, and then I think it holds people back. 

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Hmm. And even before all of the tariff stuff, like in the spring, we were talking about how we had, uh, two years of rising unemployment, which is very unusual outside of an external economic shock, which we hadn't had to that point. Of course, we've had one now that ended up being not quite as bad as we'd feared, but still not great.

Ryan Berlin: To this point. 

Ryan Wyse: To this point. It changes, changes hourly. And so we, we weren't in a good position nationally with our job market before all of the tariff stuff came in. That has made things a little bit worse. But we've, we've been dealing with this, as, as Ry said, like if this has been slowly building over time, and we haven't been in a great position for a while. And it, it is slowly and steadily deteriorated. 

Ryan Berlin: And that's the bad news, right? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: And that's kind of like, that's all f- backward-looking. 

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And I think it helps to explain some of the slowdown in our market, for sure. The flip side of that is a slowing economy. When I say the, the, the flip side, which is the good news part of this, um, and it's good news very broadly 'cause not, not everyone comes out a winner, um, in this scenario. But a slowing economy means that the door opens a little bit wider for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. And it's been sort of sitting on its hands evaluating conditions, and we're at a point now where I think, Ryan you feel the same way, unequivocally, um, when they meet in September, which will probably have happened by the time this podcast is published- 

Ryan Wyse: The announcement is September 17th. 

Ryan Berlin: Next Wednesday, yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: The only piece of... The big data release that still hasn't come out yet is, uh, CPI. So inflation dated the day before on September 16th. But even without knowing that, I feel incredibly confident that they will cut on September 17th. 

Ryan Berlin: A quarter point.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. I mean, the- 

Joanne Hoekstra: Good news for buyers.

Ryan Berlin: It is good news for buyers.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: And I, and then I think the door will swing open even more going forward. I don't know that the economy is going to magically heal itself after September.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: They meet two more times before the end of the year.... we, we think it's very likely that there'll be another quarter point cut in there. Uh, and, and we'll see beyond that. But they, you know, they have a lot of room for monetary policy to operate in this environment. We're at 2.75% right now. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, so-

Ryan Berlin: We're not at .75%. 

Joanne Hoekstra: Right.

Ryan Wyse: Theoretical neutral range is 2.25 to 3.25. The rate's smack in the middle. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: That's where they want it to be- 

Ryan Berlin: Perfect 

Ryan Wyse: ... while they evaluate impacts of tariffs, where the economy is going. They're in a, they're in a good place for themselves in order to react to whatever's coming up. And in this case, we think the reaction is they need to cut more, because [laughs] the economy's not doing very well. 

Ryan Berlin: So, we'll see. I mean, that's, yeah. There's, there's the silver lining. And we've seen bond yields come down-

Ryan Wyse: Right, right

Ryan Berlin: ... particularly in, as a reaction to the poor jobs report last week. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And the, the bond deals really are what is gonna impact the, the, the home-buying market through the, through mortgage rates, right? So, we'll see if that continues. There's some- 

Joanne Hoekstra: We'll save the in-depth discussion on bond yields for another day. 

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] 

Joanne Hoekstra: [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: That's, a- as you said before- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... yes, we have, we, we record our bond yield episodes- 

Ryan Wyse: We do. [laughs] 

Ryan Berlin: ... and post them to the Calm app.

Ryan Wyse: Calm app. 

Ryan Berlin:So you can listen- 

Ry an Wyse: That's right

Ryan Berlin:... to it, um, at night when you're looking to fall asleep.

Joanne Hoekstra:[laughs]

Ryan Berlin:So, j- just wanna pivot finally here and, and, um, talk about, uh, the new home market. Similar to resale, it's been a lot slower the last couple of years than it has been historically. Uh, we're on pace this year regionally to see 7,000 pre-sale/new home sales, which would be the lowest on record. And I think we're on pace for the fewest new homes coming to market being launched in new projects this year, again, th- than we've ever seen. So, that being said, their projects are launching. We- 7,000 sales would be not a large number, but those are 7,000 transactions. So people are still buying, and you're selling-

Joanne Hoekstra:Yeah

Ryan Berlin:... at, uh, as we said, Bridge & Elliott in Ladner. Um, so maybe you can tell us a b- a bit about that building and why someone would want to buy there.

Joanne Hoekstra:Bridge & Elliot is the first new condo building to come up in Ladner Village. If you guys have been out there recently-

Ryan Berlin:I love Ladner.

Ryan Wyse:Yeah. Yeah, Ladner's awesome.

Joanne Hoekstra:Yeah, yeah. So a very quaint community. You know, it's, it's just in such a great location because it's g- walkable to all amenities. So across the street to the grocery store. Um, there's Pharamaave is coming in at the bottom. It's one of our owners there in the commercial section. Um, just behind is the heritage streets of, like, Delta Street and the shopping streets in Ladner Village. We're a block from the river side, where, uh, the city of Delta is putting a lot of, um, effort and development into revitalizing the riverfront as well-

Ryan Berlin:Hmm

Joanne Hoekstra:... in Ladner Village. So, just a great location. The first new condo project to come in in such a walkable spot. And it gives people of South Delta and Ladner an opportunity to stay in their community and downsize or stay in their community and get into, um, a home, a, a nice home that's, you know, in a great location, right? 

Ryan BerlinHmm. 

Joanne Hoekstra: So we talked a little bit, Ryan, you mentioned the young buyers earlier-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Joanne Hoekstra: ... and how they're looking to, um, get their first homes. And that activity is still kind of, um, pent up, that demand, right? So, we're seeing some of those buyers, and then a lot of downsizers from the Ladner area coming in as well that are planning for their future. So, they are still buying homes now-

Ryan Berlin: Hmm

Joanne Hoekstra: ... because they're buying into their future. They're making a choice, um, and that our building will complete in mid to late 2027, so we have a couple years out to kind of, um, work towards their plan of moving as well.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it's under construction, as you say. And do you think that that is attractive to buyers in this market, with, with all of the-

Joanne Hoekstra: Being under construction?

Ryan Berlin:... uncertainty?

Ryan Wyse:Yeah.

Joanne Hoekstra: 100%, yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Yeah.

Joanne Hoekstra: Uh, some of the biggest questions we get are, um, around the feasibility of the project, if it's going forward-  

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Joanne Hoekstra: ... is there any risk? So, understanding-

Ryan Wyse: And timelines, too. Like-

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah

 Ryan Wyse: ... are you gonna complete when you say you will? 

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah. Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Joanne Hoekstra: So seeing all that activity-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Joanne Hoekstra: ... on site, I think, uh, there's about 100 people working on site now, um, day-over-day, so-

Ryan Wyse: Awesome

Joanne Hoekstra: ... it's pretty exciting to see, especially at this point where they're pouring concrete and, you know, everything kind of comes up really quickly.

Ryan Berlin: Obviously, lots of, lots of hurdles to, um, you know, promoting and selling, um, pre-sale homes in this market. How are you addressing them in the context of, of this project specifically? And, and I guess as part of that, I don't want

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin:... to put words in your mouth, but how are you making it easier for buyers, then, to make the leap and make that-

Joanne Hoekstra: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... decision to buy?

Joanne Hoekstra: I think the first thing is, um, instilling buyers' confidence in the developer and who's behind the project. So Headwater Projects has been working with the City of Delta f- on this particular project in Delta for about six, six, seven years now at least. So, it's really a, a flagstone project for them-

Ryan Berlin: Hmm

Joanne Hoekstra:... and for the city, so it's very important. Um, they're very involved in their local Vancouver company. They've been here, est- established since 2008. So, just bringing in, um, the, the history of the company, you know, their equity position, they're in a great, great spot, um, a great developer to work with. Uh, and then helping people understand, you know, within their contract there's protections for them as well. So, their money is protected, their deposit's protected, um, there's a timeline that we're, you know, setting out to meet within that contract as well. So, instilling that confidence-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Joanne Hoekstra: .. um, they can see the work happening as well, uh, is important. And then, this is about, you know, a, a change for your life, right? Like, it's making a decision that's beyond just the numbers. It's about, you know, how you want to spend the rest of your years here, to start out. [laughs] You know?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: It's about being within walking distance to Westham Island to go-

Joanne Hoekstra: Yes

Ryan Berlin:... pumpkin picking-

Joanne Hoekstra:[laughs]

Ryan Berlin ... which I do, but I have to drive a long way.

Joanne Hoekstra: Pick up fresh flowers-

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Joanne Hoekstra: Go to the bird sanctuary.

Ryan Berlin: I know, it is so lovely.

Joanne Hoekstra: Take your bike on the river.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: It's so lovely down there. Yeah. And it's just this cheeky little exit off the, uh, off the highway there.

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah, so, we are also seeing young couples and families coming into the building. It's, um, for a great place to raise your family, and, um, they're excited about, uh, kind of putting down roots there as well.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Joanne Hoekstra: So this is a great opportunity to get started in the market.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, fantastic. Very excited to see that, that project come to completion. 

Ryan Berlin: Finally, we have a listener question from Conrad in downtown Vancouver.

Listener Question: Hey guys, this is Conrad from Vancouver. It seems that move-up buyers like myself are kind of stuck because our condos aren't worth what we expected anymore. In your opinions, do you think that this is temporary or are we looking at a longer correction in condo values? Looking forward to your thoughts here.

Ryan Berlin: All right, who wants to take that one?

Ryan Wyse: I can go first.

Joanne Hoekstra: Oh, Ryan, you've got all the numbers.

Ryan Wyse: So, historically, when the market is hot, that's when we've seen the gap between condos and, say, town homes or detached homes really, really grow. We talked about this a lot in, like, 2021 and 2022. So that ... Be- being a move-up buyer is often more challenging in a hot market where prices are rising really quickly. And even though condo values have softened, we were talking about some of the price declines earlier-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... often the gap will close in a challenged market. And a slower market, while it can be challenging to sell your condo, is easier to buy that next property.

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah.

 Ryan Wyse: And if you're selling and buying in the same market, often it's easier to make that leap when prices are a bit softer.

 Joanne Hoekstra: 100%. I think every seller and buyer needs to look at the net equation, right?

 Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

 Joanne Hoekstra: Like, what's ... So they're getting a little bit less for their condo. They have a great selection of inventory in single family homes right now, uh, even town homes, wherever they're choosing to kind of move up next, and that gap, that net price difference has come down a lot, right?

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Joanne Hoekstra: It's still ... Or it's, you know, it's still moving together, both- both segments.

Ryan Berlin: atAnd I think those are good points, the ... And I guess another- another piece of this too is that, you know, we- we've talked at nauseum about the- the slowdown in sales activity in this market and- and the pre-sale market over the pa- like, since 2021 each year. Um, since then, we've seen fewer and fewer pre-sales. That's- that's the conduit for- for new multi-family, for new condos to be delivered to this market. So if we ... We haven't been seeing ... We've been seeing fewer and fewer pre-sales. It means that while you see a lot of cranes on the horizon now, those are really projects that are finishing up, a lot of them that aren't rental-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... from 2021 and early 2022. We are gonna see fewer cranes going forward, right? Because the homes didn't sell, so construction never started, so the homes were never delivered. Um, and so we will have a bit of a- a- a dearth of supply in the next few years as well.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: So which I think it's hard to say what prices will do between now and then within the condo market specifically. There's a- there's a lot to be resolved, as we've- as we've discussed. But we know that supply will be more constrained in a few- few years' time for sure.

Ryan Wyse: That's a good point.

Joanne Hoekstra: Still the best city to live in, right?

Ryan Berlin: Still the best.

Ryan Wyse: That's right.

Joanne Hoekstra: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Still the best. Okay, remember we'd love to answer your real estate questions. Uh, you can either email us at intel@rennie.com or leave a voicemail at speakpipe.com/therenniepodcast and we'll try to respond in our next episode. Joanne, any final piece of advice for our listeners?

Joanne Hoekstra: I think I just have to go back to what we had just discussed. All ... You know, if you're buying and selling in this market, you need to be looking at that net equation, so what the differential is between what you're selling and what you're buying, and map those together. Um, and that's what is gonna make sense of this for you.

Ryan Berlin: Right. Super. And for anyone listening who wants to get in touch, um, how would they do that?

Joanne Hoekstra: You can reach out by email to jhoekstra@rennie.com. I'm sure you'll put that in the show notes because I know my name is hard to spell [laughs].

Ryan Berlin: [laughs] 

Joanne Hoekstra: I won't spell it out here for you. Um, or on our rennie website at rennie.com/joannehoekstra. And you can see all my listings there as well.

Ryan Berlin: Amazing.

Ryan Wyse: Or just swing by Bridge and Elliot.

Joanne Hoekstra: Right?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Joanne Hoekstra: Yeah. Come and visit us.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Just- just come say hi. Uh, great. Well, thanks Joanne.

Joanne Hoekstra: Thank you.

Ryan Berlin: It was great conversation. Nice to have you back.

Joanne Hoekstra: Thanks for having me.

Ryan Berlin: Cheers.

Ryan Wyse: Great. 

Thank you for joining us on The rennie Podcast. If you'd like to learn more or to subscribe to intelligence updates, go to rennie.com/intelligence.

 The rennie podcast was created as another way of sharing our passion for homes, housing, community, and cities. We hope that this will spark the same curiosity in you that we have for everything real estate.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our senior economist, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria, and Seattle marketplaces. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.