real (estate) talk | April 2025

America’s tariff agenda was expanded on April 2nd to include just about every country around the globe. Described as “reciprocal” tariffs by the White House, the measures seek to address perceived unfair trade imbalances and trade practices in an attempt to repatriate US jobs, grow investment, and fill government coffers—contradictory aims at best. A new global minimum tariff rate of 10% was imposed on imports from almost all countries, while dozens were levelled with even higher nation-specific “reciprocal” tariff rates.

The response by financial markets, among others, was strong disapproval. Over the two days following the announcement, the S&P 500 fell 10.5% to mark one of the largest two-day declines in history; only the Black Monday crash of October 1987, the Global Financial Crisis, and the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic have produced sharper decreases. Unlike past stock market routs, however, this one was unique in that it was prompted by a single policy decision. Since the stock market highs of mid-February, tariffs and related economic uncertainty have wiped out several trillion dollars in equity value.

Similar volatility was also witnessed in the bond market, with a sharp selloff in US Treasuries pushing the 10-year yield higher by almost 50 basis points in the week following the announcement. The 5-year Government of Canada yield, a key determinant of domestic fixed mortgage rates, was up 37 basis points. More major banks, economists, and CEOs are now warning that the US and global economies could fall into recession, and consumer sentiment everywhere has weakened markedly. In March, consumer confidence in Canada had already fallen below levels seen at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, US inflation expectations have spiked to their highest level since 1981.

In the wake of all of this, on April 9th, the US issued a 90-day pause on nation-specific “reciprocal” tariffs while maintaining the minimum global tariff rate of 10% (excluding China). Though Canada managed to avoid “reciprocal” tariffs entirely, previously-announced levies of 25% on steel and aluminum, non-CUSMA compliant goods (excluding energy products at 10%), and automobiles remain unchanged. 

The cumulative effect of said tariffs and the associated economic uncertainty have weighed heavily on housing market activity across Canada. In the Vancouver Region, there were 3,070 MLS sales in March, down 42% relative to the prior 10-year March average (of 5,325 sales) and below levels seen in both March of 2023 and 2024, two already slow years. Meanwhile, new listings continued to come to market at an elevated rate, helping to push inventory higher. There were 21,962 active listings across the region at the end of March, 57% above the prior 10-year March average (of 13,950 listings) and the most for the month since 2013.

Looking ahead, Canadians will choose a new federal government on April 28th in what’s shaping up to be one of the most consequential elections in decades. On offer from the leading parties are several housing policies intended to improve affordability and spur construction including: the elimination of GST on some new homes, the reduction of municipal development cost charges, tax incentives for purpose-built rental construction, deferred capital gains on proceeds reinvested in Canada (which includes housing), and a new agency that would see the government get into affordable housing development. Some combination of these policies, along with a new approach to encouraging economic growth, could help housing markets across Canada find their footing against the backdrop of an increasingly uncertain geo-political landscape.

The rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our senior economist, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria, and Seattle marketplaces. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.