real (estate) talk | December 2025

Resale market activity in the Vancouver Region remained subdued in November with 2,737 MLS sales, a 16% decline from last November (3,246) and 28% below the past 10-year November average (3,776). With 11 months of the year now in the rearview mirror, the region is firmly on pace to register around 35,000 sales in 2025, which would mark the fewest annual transactions in at least two decades. For context, the region tallied slightly more than 36,500 sales in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis, and transactions in each of the past two years have been marginally above the 40,000 mark.   

While the timing of a return to more typical levels of activity remains uncertain, two factors that have contributed to the market slowdown this year—a weak economy and a deteriorating labour market—have improved measurably in recent months. Starting with the economy, after a 1.8% annualized decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) in Q2, a rebound to 2.6% annualized growth in Q3 has allowed Canada to avoid a technical recession. Additionally, Statistics Canada also revised real GDP upward by half a percentage point in each year from 2022 to 2024, which eases some of the concern relating to weak economic and productivity trends in recent years. Still, Canada’s economy is far from running at optimal levels, with Q3 data showing softening domestic consumption and flat business investment. Growth in Q3 was primarily a result of a large increase in government investment, as well as a large drop in imports, which improved Canada’s trade balance. 

Meanwhile, Canada’s labour market has also seen some signs of improvement in recent months, reversing the previous trend of relatively flat employment growth and a rising unemployment rate. The country added 53,600 jobs in November, bringing the cumulative increase over the last three months to 180,600 jobs (the country added 37,500 jobs from January to August). At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November, its lowest level in 16 months and a considerable decline from 7.1% in September, which was the highest reading since March 2016 when excluding the pandemic. While falling numbers of unemployed people have helped bring down the unemployment rate, which is positive, a dropping participation rate has also been a factor, which is negative. At 65.1% in November, the participation rate was near its lowest level since the late 1990s when excluding the pandemic.

One recent employment trend that deserves particular attention has been the improving conditions for youth ages 15 to 24, a group that has been especially challenged this year. Nearly all of the country’s job gains in November were concentrated among youth (+49,700), which also happened to be this group’s first monthly employment gain in 2025. Concurrently, the youth unemployment rate fell to 12.8% in November, down from 14.7% in September, which was the highest rate since September 2010 when excluding the pandemic. While many factors impact the labour market and youth employment in particular, one reason for the recent improvement could be that a declining non-permanent resident population has expanded opportunities for youth. 

As the new year approaches, the Vancouver Region’s housing market continues to face a number of headwinds, and it is a long way from typical levels of activity. Recent economic and labour market developments, should they continue, are but two factors that could support greater liquidity in 2026.

⁠⁠⁠The vancouver rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence division comprises our head economist, market analysts, and data scientists. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria, Seattle, and Coachella Valley marketplaces. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.