real (estate) talk | October 2024

Three interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada have so far done little to motivate buyers. MLS sales in the Vancouver Region declined for the fifth consecutive month in September and, at 2,770, were 29% below the prior 10-year September average. This trend of well-below average sales has been a constant throughout 2024, the cumulative impact of which has been quite notable. Through the first nine months of this year there has been a total of 30,370 sales in the region, a decline of 6% from last year (32,430) and 23% below the prior 10-year average (39,646). 

While the market lacked enthusiasm on the part of buyers in September, this was a marked contrast to sellers. New listings activity was up considerably with 9,215 new homes coming to market, the third-highest of any month this year. This translated to a 41% month-over-month increase in new listings, which was well above the typical 19% August-to-September bump.

The combination of continued soft sales and elevated new listings helped push active MLS listings higher to 22,430 at the end of September. With that, inventory in the Vancouver Region officially surpassed levels seen in mid-2019 (the most recent high-water mark was 21,654 in June 2019), and there are now more active listings in the region than at any time since July 2014 (23,553 listings). We’ve been saying it for awhile, but it rings more true now than it did in recent months—buyers haven’t had this much choice in a long time.

Prospective buyers should take note that, with 8.1 months of inventory (MOI) at the end of September, the Vancouver Region officially tipped into a buyers’ market for the first time since April 2020. For a market like Vancouver, this is quite noteworthy—over the prior 120 months, conditions have favoured buyers in just three of them. In other words, over the past 10 years, conditions have favoured buyers just 2.5% of the time versus 70.0% for sellers (where MOI is less than 5.0).

How long these conditions last, however, remains to be seen. Early data for October shows increased enthusiasm on the part of buyers with 1,385 sales through the first nine days of the month (that’s 50% of September sales in less than one-third of the time). At the current pace, sales are on pace to challenge April (4,211 sales) for the busiest month of 2024. Between elevated inventory and interest rate cuts (with more expected in October and December), buyers have a lot to be excited about.  

The rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our senior economist, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria, and Seattle marketplaces. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.