Real (Estate) Talk with Ryan Berlin - June 2022

The rennie review is produced each month by rennie intelligence, which includes the latest real estate data for Vancouver Region's housing market.Balance amidst Vancouver’s housing gymnastics.

Over the past 24 months, Vancouver’s housing market has—along with many others nationally—been marked by ne’re-before-seen demand and ghosting supply. In turn, the painfully (for many) obvious consequence has been conditions that have been tilted strongly in favour of sellers, as defined by the sales-to-listing (S-L) ratio in the Vancouver Region exceeding 21%. Furthermore, it’s not just the overall S-L ratio that has remained above 21% every month since June 2020, but also that of each home type, as well—until May 2022, that is, when the S-L ratio for detached homes slipped to 18%.

While the region’s detached segment is now technically balanced, the broader market for housing continues to favour sellers. The overall sales-to-listings ratio for May, for example, came in at 27%—though this was the lowest such reading since August 2020. Notably, the S-L ratio has sagged to its current level from a much-more-robust 59% in just two months as sales activity has slowed and inventory continues its upward march. Despite this, the townhome and condo segments remain entrenched in sellers’ territory, with current S-L ratios of 34% and 38%, respectively. 

The variation that exists within the overall-balanced detached market deserves some attention. Specifically, when the market for houses is delineated by price range, it’s clear that the market for lower-priced homes continues to be the most competitive for buyers. For detached homes of less than $1.5M, for example, the market still favours sellers (with an S-L ratio of 28%). However, at higher prices, conditions are more balanced—even favouring buyers at the extreme end of the value spectrum—with $1.5-2M homes accompanied by an S-L ratio of 20%, and $2-3M homes with a 15% S-L ratio. For homes priced at $3M or more—out of reach for the average buyer, to be sure—the S-L ratio is 8%.

In sum, the segment of the market in which most buyers participate continues to be more competitive than the overall numbers suggest, with detached homes priced below $1.5M accounting for 1 in 3 sales, but only 1 in 5 listings, regionally.

If the market inertia —of expanding inventory and blunted sales—that has ensconced itself in 2022 continues as we transition through the month of June (or should we say, Juneuary) and into summer, don’t be surprised if the balanced conditions currently reserved for describing the detached segment become more contagious.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our in-house demographer, senior economist, and market analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in urban land economics, community planning, shifting demographics, and real estate trends, their strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service offering and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations. Their thoughtful and objective approach truly embodies the core values of rennie.