real (estate) talk | May 2025

On April 28th, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured victory in one of the most consequential federal elections in decades. The Liberals received 43.8% of the popular vote but were limited to a minority government with 170 of 343 seats in the House of Commons—just two short of a majority. While longstanding issues around the cost of living, housing, and crime remained top of mind for voters, President Trump’s trade aggression and threats to Canadian sovereignty heavily influenced how Canadians voted.

In one of his first major steps as Prime Minister, Carney visited the White House on May 6th in an effort to diffuse quickly deteriorating Canada-US relations. The meeting was mostly cordial and Carney effectively defended Canada while laying the groundwork for further negotiations on trade and security. On domestic issues, Carney will have to earn support from opposing parties to pass key legislation. Anchoring his campaign were promises to build a national energy corridor, advance major resource projects, and invest in infrastructure and national defence—initiatives that should warrant collaboration from the Conservatives. The Conservative Party remains the Official Opposition after receiving 41.3% of the popular vote, their strongest support since the 1988 election, and secured 143 seats.

Aside from those broader initiatives, Carney has pledged to implement a number of specific key policies by Canada Day. Most significant is the elimination of all federal barriers to interprovincial trade, which have long been seen as a weight on productivity and economic growth. The removal of limitations on east-west trade and business and labour mobility could increase Canada’s economic output by several hundred billion dollars per year. Carney also intends to pass legislation that would cut the federal income tax rate from 15% to 14% for the lowest tax bracket (which is income up to $57,375 in 2025), and will remove GST for first-time homebuyers on new home purchases up to $1 million, including a partial removal for homes priced between $1 to $1.5 million.

As the new Minister of Housing, former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson will be responsible for advancing Carney’s campaign promises to improve housing affordability and increase supply. This includes halving municipal development cost charges and reintroducing the popular Multiple Unit Rental Building (MURB) policy, a 1970s-era tax incentive that was responsible for building almost 200,000 rental homes. Other promises include the creation of a new federal agency, Build Canada Homes (BCH), which would see the government get into the development of affordable housing. BCH would also provide $25 billion in debt financing and $1 billion in equity financing for prefabricated home builders, and take over all affordable housing programs from the CMHC.

The election result comes at a time of significantly reduced housing market activity in Canada. Tariff-driven economic uncertainty has led to a collapse in consumer confidence, which has sidelined prospective homebuyers. In a recent article by rennie intelligence, we highlighted the dramatic shift in sales activity across BC since the US presidential inauguration in January. In April, MLS sales in the Vancouver Region remained well below their long-run monthly average (-36%, to 3,128) and active listings closed the month substantially above average (+60%, to 24,225). There hasn’t been this much inventory in this region since July 2013.

With the election now behind us, Prime Minister Carney has an opportunity to reset relations with the US and take a shot at solving a series of longstanding domestic issues. Perhaps this will be an opportunity for the housing market to hit reset, too.⁠

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⁠The rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence division comprises our head economist, market analysts, and data scientists. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria, Seattle, and Coachella Valley marketplaces. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.