a trump in the road for bc’s spring housing market

Heading into 2025, there was a general sense of optimism that the resale housing market in BC would make a recovery from what had been more than two years of suppressed transaction activity. Our own rennie outlook published in January forecasted annual home sales in the Vancouver Region to reach almost 50,000 this year, a 24% increase year-over-year, in line with the long-run average. 

There were plenty of factors to support these heightened expectations. Most notably, the Bank of Canada began reducing its policy interest rate in June 2024 and borrowing costs had fallen markedly through the second half of the year, significantly increasing purchasing power for prospective buyers. Speaking of prospective buyers, there were a lot of them—the result of over two years of restrained homebuying borne by previously elevated borrowing costs. All the while, an accumulation of active listings was expected to support increased liquidity with more options for buyers, and more favourable mortgage insurance rules were slated to further stimulate demand.  

Beyond the mere expectation of increasing sales, there was already clear evidence from late 2024 that buyers had begun to re-engage with the market and that activity was heading into the new year on an upward trajectory. Sales in the Vancouver Region between October and December were up substantially from the same month in the prior year, a sharp contrast to several months of year-over-year declines leading up to then. With that, monthly sales were moving closer to long-run average levels (though still below). The fact that this trend was not unique to the Vancouver Region was evidence that a wider market recovery was underway. Nearly identical patterns were unfolding in Greater Victoria and Greater Kelowna, too.

No forecast, however, could have predicted the scope and magnitude of President Trump’s tariff agenda, or the ultimate impact it would have on Canada’s housing market through a collapse in consumer confidence. In the short time since his inauguration on January 20th, the president has threatened, imposed, delayed and modified a series of punitive tariffs that have significantly altered the outlook for the Canadian economy. Consumer confidence has fallen in tandem and reached a historic low in March. More Canadians are worried about their jobs, household finances, and a recession, conditions that are not conducive to making a major purchase like a new home or an investment property.

Through the first four months of 2025, the trend of large year-over-year sales gains seen last fall in the Vancouver Region has been completely unwound. Sales in January came in essentially flat relative to the prior year before registering two consecutive months of 18% year-over-year declines in February and March. In April, that trend deepened with sales down 26% from the prior April. The period from March to May—often referred to as the spring housing market—has historically been the busiest time of year for transaction activity in the region. However, two thirds of the way through this spring market and sales are on pace for the third slowest in available data back to 2005. Only 2019 and 2020 saw fewer sales, both of which were uniquely challenging years for housing activity.

Looking at sales relative to their long-run averages prior to and following President Trump’s inauguration further highlights the impact that his tariff policies have had on homebuying activity across the province. Between October and December, sales in the Vancouver Region were 12% below the past 10-year same-period average versus a 0.4% deficit in Greater Victoria and an 18% deficit in Greater Kelowna. Though activity in all three markets was still below average (to varying degrees), this was a notable change from the May-to-September period when sales were substantially farther from average. Since Trump took control of the White House in January, sales have slipped back to well-below their long-run average levels. Between February and April, the deficit was 38% in the Vancouver Region, 20% in Greater Victoria, and 29% in Greater Kelowna.

Where housing market activity has been above normal is on the new listings front. The combination of elevated new listings and suppressed sales has helped push inventory to new heights. In the Vancouver Region, there were 24,225 active listings at the end of April, up 34% year-over-year and 60% above the prior 10-year April average of 15,183. In fact, this was the most inventory in the region in any month going back to July 2013. Inventory in the Greater Victoria and Kelowna regions has been on a similar trajectory with available listings quickly approaching new decade highs. More buyer choice can be a catalyst for increased homebuying, but not when a sizable portion of prospective buyers have put their home search on hold due to broader economic uncertainty.

Many of the factors supporting increased housing market activity in 2025 that were discussed at the open of this article remain intact. However, all of them have, for lack of a better term, been trumped by the collapse in consumer confidence stemming from tariff-driven economic uncertainty. Lower home sales is but one measure of the impact that President Trump’s trade policies have had on the Canadian economy, with similar trends playing out or expected to play out in consumer spending, business investment, exports, and hiring. Here’s to hoping that Canada can find renewed stability with its closest ally and largest trading partner, and that these tariffs are but a minor trump in the road.   

rennie’s intelligence team provides regular monthly commentary and analysis on BC’s three largest housing markets. Check out our Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna rennie reviews for the latest insights and data from April, and join our subscriber list to be the first to know when new monthly publications become available.