a little bit less of a whole lot more (population growth)

Canada’s population has quite literally exploded in recent years, adding the equivalent of three City of Vancouver's worth of people in 2022 and 2023 (or 2.2 million). A sharp increase in the number of non-permanent residents (i.e., international students, foreign workers, and asylum seekers) has largely been responsible for said increase, fueling demand for already stressed housing and healthcare services, and leading to increasingly negative sentiment toward current levels of international migration. In response, the federal government has announced a number of new policies aimed at paring back the pace of migration, including a two-year cap on the issuance of international student permits, reducing the share of non-permanent residents in Canada, and limiting businesses’ ability to hire low-wage foreign workers.

Statistics Canada’s most recently published quarterly population estimates have indeed shown signs of decelerating international migration and, as a result, decelerating population growth. In Q2 2024, Canada’s population increased by just over 250,000, which was down 25% from nearly 335,000 in Q2 2023 (note that it is important to compare population growth over similar periods as international student and work permit issuances can be quite seasonal). This was driven by a 46% decline in the number of net new non-permanent residents, which fell to around 118,000 in the second quarter from around 220,000 in the same quarter last year. Notably, this was the fewest non-permanent resident additions and the smallest increase in total population since Q1 2023.

All of this is welcome news when considering Canada’s housing supply and affordability challenges. However, it is important to put these numbers into context. Population growth in Q2 was still higher than any quarter prior to 2020 (the previous high was around 208,000 in Q3 2019) and far higher than the quarterly average of roughly 118,000 between 2015 and 2019. Moreover, Canada has added 504,000 people through the first six months of 2024, which is higher than full-year growth in 47 of the last 52 years. If we simply maintained this pace through the second half of the year, the country would be on track to add a little more than one million people in 2024, which would be the second-highest annual increase going back to 1972. Canada’s population is still growing at an incredible pace, and the elevated intake of non-permanent residents remains a substantial driver.

The cumulative impact of higher non-permanent resident flows is better illustrated by looking at the total number of non-permanent residents currently living in Canada, and how that number has evolved in response to a few years of record international migration. Statistics Canada estimated that there were slightly more than 3.0 million non-permanent residents living in Canada at the end of Q2 2024, equivalent to 7.3% of the national population. Relative to just three years ago, this figure has increased 130% from around 1.3 million people at the end of Q2 2021, which amounted to 3.4% of Canada’s population at the time. 

Looking at these figures, it is clear that the federal government has not yet made good on its commitments to limit international migration. In March of this year, it announced its intention to limit the number of non-permanent residents living in Canada to 5.0% of the total population by 2027. At that time, the latest available data from Q3 2023 showed that there were about 2.5 million non-permanent residents living in Canada, equivalent to about 6.3% of the population. Since then, the non-permanent resident population has only continued to increase, perpetuating near-record population growth and pushing the federal government further from its 5.0% target.

⁠the national trend, amplified

In British Columbia, where a higher share of international migrants settle, the population expanded by over 70,000 people in the first six months of 2024. This was higher than full-year growth in 34 of the past 52 years and puts the province on pace to grow by about 141,000 people this year. Though this would mark a decrease from record growth of nearly 185,000 people in 2023, and growth of about 156,000 people in 2022, it would still be the third-largest annual increase in the province’s population going back to 1972 (by a considerable margin).

Like the trend at the national level, strong inflows of non-permanent residents have continued to drive near-record population growth in the province through the first half of the year, though there were signs of this easing in Q2 2024. British Columbia welcomed more than 17,000 net new non-permanent residents in the second quarter, a 52% decline from Q2 2023 (about 36,000) and the fewest in any quarter going back to Q1 2023 (about 14,000). Nevertheless, this still translated into an increase in the total stock of non-permanent residents in the province. At the end of Q2 2024, there were roughly 530,000 non-permanent residents living in British Columbia, equivalent to almost one in every 10 people.

⁠leveling up the levels plan

Despite a suite of announcements by the federal government aimed at limiting international migration, population growth in Canada and British Columbia through the first half of this year has only pulled back marginally from record levels in 2022 and 2023, and the share of non-permanent residents living in the country has continued to increase. 
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What’s more, forward-looking indicators for population have continued to point to robust growth into Q3 with over 271,000 international study and worker permits issued in July and August (note that these are gross permit issuances and permit expiries will ultimately determine the change in net non-permanent residents in Statistics Canada’s next quarterly population estimates for Q3 2024). This was down 33% from the same two months in 2023 and 2% from 2022, but barring those two years, this remained far higher than in any other year going back to 2015. With over one million gross permits issued through the first eight months of the year, 2024 is well on its way to seeing the second-most permits issued on record.

All of this begs the question, how (and when) will the federal government begin to make good on its policy to bring down the share of non-permanent residents to 5.0% by 2027? Fortunately, we should get a lot more clarity on all of this when it announces its Immigration Levels Plan on November 1st. For the first time ever, this will include precise three-year targets for non-permanent residents in addition to the typical permanent resident targets. While international migration remains a fundamental component to Canada’s future prosperity, a more balanced approach is needed to limit stress on already fragile housing, infrastructure, and services. We look forward to breaking down the updated targets once they become available in November.