from evergreen to ever-red?

There is no doubt that migration has had a tremendous impact on the demographic and socioeconomic fabric of the United States; it’s part of what makes the country so special. Of course, when one pictures migration, there’s a tendency to think at an international scale, and what often gets overlooked is the movement of people domestically, be it individuals moving between different parts in the same state or moving to a new state altogether. This type of migration is also impactful to the social and economic fabric of a state and, when considering housing, it can have both immediate and future implications for local markets.

Just last summer, the US Census Bureau’s Migration in the United States: 2006 to 2019 report found migration both within and to/from the US had slowed in almost every year from 2006 to 2019, with the mover rate decreasing from 17% to 14% during that decade-and-a-half period. With this said, among those who did move, the proportion crossing county or state lines, or moving internationally, increased over this period from 41% to 45%. Specific to state-to-state migration, “17.4% of domestic movers crossed state lines [in 2019], up from 16.6% in 2006”—a nod to its growing importance when considering overall patterns of migration.

This trend of state-to-state movement has continued to increase, as seen in the latest release from the US Census Bureau in November 2023. Indeed, state-to-state movers have become an increasingly important component of overall migration, even as it has fallen: there were 8.2 million people in 2022 who made a living change at a state level, up from 7.9 million in 2021 and an increase in the share of all movers from 18.8% to 19.9%. 

Specific to the Evergreen State, Washington had a net loss of 9,430 people due to state-to-state migration in 2022. Arizona was the largest benefactor of this outflow, gaining a net 14,005 people from Washington, with Idaho (3,830), Utah (3,445), Florida (3,436), and Wisconsin (3,384) rounding out the top five. On the other end of the spectrum, three states from the Pacific Region were the largest contributors to Washington, with California (18,102), Oregon (10,604), and Hawaii (3,302) contributing a net increase of over 32,000 people. Massachusetts (2,767) and Minnesota (2,747) rounded out the top five states for net inmigration across the state.

Washington realizing net losses from state-to-state migration has only happened twice over the past seventeen years, in both 2021 and 2022 (note the US Census Bureau did not publish state-to-state migration data in 2020 and provides no annual data prior to 2005). Between 2010 and 2019, Washington gained, on average, almost 36,000 people annually, with the net inflow peaking at just over 65,000 in 2016. The pandemic evidently had a tremendous impact on this trend, with state-to-state migration changing from annual additions of 36,000 people to a net loss of 43,000 people in 2021. With this said, the loss realized in 2022 was almost 80% below that seen in 2021 and both years seem to be anomalies in a seventeen-year span where Washington has benefitted from state-to-state migration. This trend, be it the historical gains or recent losses, have a direct impact on supply and demand dynamics in housing markets across Washington, as individuals crossing state lines affect population change and housing preferences, such as a desired home or tenure types.