built, but not bought? the housing market story of 2026

The rennie podcast is about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Tune in for monthly discussions making sense of the latest market data.

EPISODE #85: BUILT, BUT NOT BOUGHT? THE HOUSING STORY OF 2026

Join Ryan Berlin (Head Economist and VP Intelligence) and Ryan Wyse (Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst) as they discuss what the 2026 rennie Outlook says is in store for Metro Vancouver's housing market in the year ahead. They examine why prices, rents, and sales activity are likely to remain soft, explore how new supply will start to pull back, and explain why the region's population will shrink once again this year before transitioning back to robust growth. In short, it's a conversation about 2026 shaping up as a year where the market finds its floor—and its footing—and what it means for the industry, buyers, and sellers.

Featured guests:
Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence
Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager
⁠
⁠Additional Reading
⁠The 2026 rennie Outlook

We’d love to answer your real estate questions. Email us at intel@rennie.com or leave a voicemail, and we’ll try to respond in future episodes. 

Transcript

Last year, we got about half of our predictions right. 
⁠Interest rates are lower today than they were a year ago, and they're more stable, but they're not necessarily low. 
⁠I think it's less about where prices are going, 'cause none of us really know. We have a prediction, but none of us really know. 
⁠I am not calling it the pre-sale market anymore. 
⁠We currently have more completed and unsold condos... in Metro Vancouver than we've had since the Great Recession. 
⁠Total population, we expect across Metro Vancouver, a 10,000-person decrease.

Ryan Berlin: Welcome to the rennie Podcast. I'm Ryan Berlin, Vice President of Intelligence and Head Economist at rennie. 

Ryan Wyse: And I'm Ryan Wyse, Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst at  rennie. 

Ryan Berlin: And you're going on holiday in T-minus, what, like 12 hours? 

Ryan Wyse: Uh- 

Ryan Berlin: No, no, 24 hours. 

Ryan Wyse: 20, 20 hours. Yeah, I'm- 

Ryan Berlin: 20? 

Ryan Wyse: ... checked in- 

Ryan Berlin: When do you leave? 

Ryan Wyse: ... on the flight already. Tomorrow morning. 

Ryan Berlin: Like, how early? 

Ryan Wyse: Uh, flight's, like, 9 something. Not too early. 

Ryan Berlin: Sweet. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: Where are you going? 

Ryan Wyse: Cabo. It's gonna be great. 

Ryan Berlin: Amazing. 

Ryan Wyse: Can't wait. 

Ryan Berlin: Awesome. 

Ryan Wyse: Sunshine. 

Ryan Berlin: I might join you. Would you mind? 

Ryan Wyse: Come on down. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. [chuckles] Awesome. Before you go, we are gonna record this episode of the podcast, which is centered around the rennie Outlook, which is an annual report that we publish here at rennie, that contains a slew of predictions for our, our economy and our housing market here in Metro Vancouver. So... And you can get the report at rennie.com/intelligence. It's published. Last year, we got about half of our predictions right, and I've been saying, you know, "We got half of them right. If we were a baseball player, you know, we'd be on track to win the batting crown. If we were landing airplanes, this would be a disaster." [chuckles] 

Ryan Wyse: [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: We know that at the end of the day, forecasting is a tough game, right? 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And forecasters are gonna get things wrong, hopefully not more often than not. But at the end of the day, if we know we can't always be right, then why do we forecast? 

Ryan Wyse: You mean, besides just putting ourselves out there and putting a stake in the ground- 

Ryan Berlin: Oh, I- 

Ryan Wyse: ... and, and saying a number? 'Cause- 

Ryan Berlin: I love putting ourselves out there. 

Ryan Wyse: That's fun. Um, but more importantly, I think it's all about our rationale for why we think something's gonna happen. Um, our analysis, our thought process, the context for what we think is going to happen in the year ahead. So you can agree with us, you can disagree, um, but we can talk through all the drivers affecting our market, and why we think the year ahead is going to unfold the way we do. 

Ryan Berlin: So last year, we published our 2025 edition of the, the Outlook, uh, on January 31st. 

Ryan Wyse: Not great timing. 

Ryan Berlin: It turned out not to be. Just the next day, the US announced that they'd be imposing massive tariffs on, uh, Canadian imports. So on a scale of we nailed it to we need a new crystal ball, how'd we do? 

Ryan Wyse: Well, like you said, we're about half right, so, uh, a little bit of both. Some we nailed, and some we need a new crystal ball [chuckles] for. 

Ryan Berlin: But- 

Ryan Wyse: But we can... For anything we didn't get right, we just go ahead and bl- blame it all on one person, right? 

Ryan Berlin:  I think we do that. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, we'll do that. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: So this year, we probably don't have that. Like, you know, tr- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... trade uncertainty is baked in. Consumer sentiment is what it is. Uh, I think a lot of people are expecting maybe some more controversy with, uh... We have to renegotiate our free trade agreement, CUSMA, this year. So there, there is that uncertainty already, so we kinda go into this year eyes wide open. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. You know, I'm getting tired of using the word "uncertainty." 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: I think people are tired of hearing about it, and, I mean, the source of uncertainty... So the, the constant is uncertainty. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: The source of it has been evolving, like, literally over the past five years. Last year, we didn't know what could happen. We didn't know what the US could or would do. You know, whether it was, as it relates to tariffs, legal or not, remains, um, up for debate, chiefly amongst, uh, the Supreme Court justices in the US, who have not rendered their decision, but we're waiting for it. Either way, uh, merely announcing that tariffs are gonna be slapped on a country's exports can throw that country into a tizzy. So, uh, yeah, I mean, to your point, this year, it feels like we're almost, like, prepared for a certain degree of uncertainty. [chuckles] In a sense. 

Ryan Wyse: I think we've gotten used to- 

Ryan Berlin: Used to it 

Ryan Wyse: ... a base level of [chuckles] chaos. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, a base level of chaos. Base level of chaos. 

Ryan Wyse: Absolutely. 

Ryan Berlin: So let's talk about, um, the forecasts for 2026, 'cause I think that's what people care most about, and let's start on the sales front. 

Ryan Wyse: Sure. 

Ryan Berlin: So we are forecasting 38,000 MLS sales in the Vancouver region in 2026. So the Vancouver region runs from Pemberton, down Sea to Sky, all the way across, what most people know as Metro Vancouver, out to and, um, including Abbotsford. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: So it's a, it's a big region, over 3 million residents. We're forecasting 38,000 sales. That's an 8% increase- 

Ryan Wyse: Yay 

Ryan Berlin: ... over last year. [chuckles] 

Ryan Wyse: [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: However, last year was, uh, at least a 20-year low. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: Um, so why... I've seen a bunch of numbers out there, too. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Um, ours is not tremendously aggressive. Um, why aren't we being, you know, more optimistic on that front? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, I think a few things right away, like,  again, consumer confidence hasn't really improved. Consumers are a bit shy right now about making major purchases, because they're concerned about the economy, they're concerned about the labor market. We're not seeing huge numbers of layoffs across the economy, but I think a lot of workers are not feeling as confident in their job security as they used to. There's a lot of survey data kinda supporting that. So I think people are, are apprehensive about making a big purchase. Interest rates are lower today than they were a year ago, and they're more stable, but they're not necessarily low relative to the last 20 years. And so affordability has improved... but people aren't necessarily jumping back in. W- you know, we're, uh, a month into the year, and so far, we haven't seen a big pickup in, in sales activity yet, and I think buyers are pretty cautious out there right now. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, and we've talked about this before. There's not a lot of urgency. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Right? And I think that's especially true when interest rates are-... unambiguously falling, which they're not. So it'll be interesting to see how, I mean, both the Bank of Canada, I mean, well, we're gonna give this one away, aren't we? [chuckles] Or I'm going to. 

Ryan Wyse: Spoilers. 

Ryan Berlin: Spoiler alert here. The, you know, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to lower its overnight rate, its policy, its trend-setting rate in 2026, and mortgage rates have, it feels like, bottomed out. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm, and ticked up a little bit, and we'll kinda see as they- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... as we go. 

Ryan Berlin: That actually, um, might, in a roundabout way, provide a little bit of fuel for the market. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Because, you know, for those would-be buyers who are kinda waiting to see how the market would evolve, as they're looking at prices, they're looking at inventory, they're looking at interest rates, you know, if interest rates have stabilized, there isn't, at least as far as they're concerned, those rates are concerned, there isn't a reason there to wait longer. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: So then it just really becomes a matter of, I think it's less about where prices are going, 'cause none of us really know. We have a prediction, but none of us really know. But there's a lot of choice out there, so it's kinda like, "Hey, is the, is the home that I want, that I can afford out there?" And I think we'll start seeing at the margin more people make that, make that move. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: Okay, what about the, the pre-sale market? I don't know, do we call it the pre-sale market anymore? 

Ryan Wyse: We're not calling it... I am not calling it the pre-sale market anymore. So my big thing for 2026 is I'm calling it the new home market. So if you hear me call it pre-sale, you can, uh- 

Ryan Berlin: Unless you mean- 

Ryan Wyse: wrap my knuckles 

Ryan Berlin: ... true pre-sale. Like, why- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... why, why the shift in the language? 

Ryan Wyse: Pre-sale, for so long in this market, really dominated the new home space. Uh, developers brought a project to market. Most of the buying happened before construction started. Buyers would put a deposit down for a home to be delivered later. So last year, about a third of all transactions were true pre-sale. Another third were of homes already under construction, and then another third was completed new homes, ready to hand the keys over. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: And so that record-low sales activity of, uh, actually just under 6,000 new home sales, now that we have the Q4 data, lowest in our data provider's data set going back to 2012, probably the lowest since at least 2008. We don't know if 2008 was lower. But this year, we don't expect many new project launches. Again, there's a lot of inventory in the new home segment, just like the resale segment. There's not a ton of optimism about this segment of the market picking back up all that quickly, and so I think most of the transactions will be absorbing existing inventory. So some of that is completed inventory, some of that's under construction inventory. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Wyse: And then at the margin, a few launches of, you know, some smaller scale wood frame and town home projects. But overall, the, the, I think the meat of the market will be- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... not true pre-sale this year. 

Ryan Berlin: I also think, you know, part of that is just the lack of investor participation. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: So, you know, the new home market is being driven by end users right now. I would say, arguably, the entire market is really end-user driven right now. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes. 

Ryan Berlin: If you're an end user, you don't necessarily need a home in four years. You might need a home [chuckles] in, in now or in, you know, in, in a year from now. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: So, you know, back to your point there, for those buildings that are under construction, completing soon or already completed, I think is, is, uh, is a good bet for where we'll see a lot of that demand, uh, manifest. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, and it's even really challenging for any end-user buyer, uh, that's move up, uh, or downsizer. Like, most of your equity or down payment is- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... in your, your existing home. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Wyse: So it's often really challenging for a, a buyer with a lot of equity in a home. They need to sell that home in order to fund the next purchase. To wait four years, they have to put a deposit down and source those funds from somewhere else. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, that's right. So let's keep going on this topic. Um, we are also forecasting that segment of the market, the completed and unsold segment of the new home market. Yet not something that we forecasted last year- ... and, uh, and honestly, it wasn't even really part of the... You talked to industry people, and prior to 2025, completed and unsold inventory was like, I don't know, it was a feature of the market, but it wasn't a determinant of, you know, total supply. It didn't influence prices. It didn't show up on the radar of, you know, those parties that were bringing new projects to market- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... that were looking to launch. But now, it's very much a part of the, like, woven into the landscape. We currently have more completed and unsold condos- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... in Metro Vancouver than we've had since the Great Recession. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: It's been a long time. 

Ryan Wyse: And- 

Ryan Berlin: So what are you seeing? 

Ryan Wyse: Oh, so over the last year, it increased by about half. So we started tracking this in earnest at the end of 2024, and it really picked up. It was more than 2,000 completed and unsold condos in the market, and so we started paying a lot more attention to it as it, as it became more prominent. Grew by about half. So now it's just under 3,500- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... or as of the, the end of the year. So we expect this to continue to grow, not as quickly this year. So we're not expecting sales to necessarily increase all that much this year. Our forecast for new home sales is a marginal increase, but there's fewer unsold homes completing this year. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: So there's actually still quite a few completions coming in 2026. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Wyse: There's a lot of condo inventory under construction, but the wave of completions that we expect to finish this year is actually sold pretty well, sold a few years ago- 

Ryan Berlin: Right 

Ryan Wyse: ... when the market was more active. And so of the 54 projects we think are gonna complete this year, they're on average about 80% sold. There'll be some absorption of those projects, and so the number of homes essentially completing and hitting the market will be slightly higher than what we figure will be drawn down. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: And so, you know, we think we're gonna get up to, like, 3,600, uh, and change by the end of this year. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, so not a big shift there. I guess one of the, uh, you-... factors that comes into play that we haven't explicitly accounted for is, do all those buyers that purchased a few years ago close? Do they complete on their deals? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So anecdotally, we're hearing that not all buyers are closing right now, and part of the reason, of course, is that prices have come down, and appraisals are coming in a bit lower than- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Wyse: ... people paid. So you're gonna have to come up with more money- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... to fund the purchase, and, and that's challenging for some buyers. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Again, on the supply side, we're- I think we had a record number of, um, housing completions- 

Ryan Wyse: Yes 

Ryan Berlin: ... across the region. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes. 

Ryan Berlin: Just over 30,000. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes. So 30,000 for the first time. 

Ryan Berlin: For the first time ever. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. For what that's worth, we've crossed some arbitrary threshold. 

Ryan Wyse: That's right. 

Ryan Berlin: It sounds like a big number. And, I mean, in, in a historical sense, it is. In 2026, are we on track? Do we think that we'll be on track to exceed that? And then a, an accompanying question is, what are we seeing on the start side? Because you can't talk about completions- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... without talking about housing starts. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So starts peaked a few years ago. The record high was 2023. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Wyse: There's still a lot of homes under construction in this region. The overall number has recently peaked, and so our forecast is for a slight decline in completions. So we don't think we're gonna hit that 30,000 number again. But our forecast is still for the second-highest total number of completions ever at just over 29,000. We're still going to deliver a lot of homes in this region. It's just not quite as many as last year. On the start side, we expect... They've, they've decreased for each of the past two years- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse:... from the record high. They're still pretty elevated, but we're, we're actually forecasting a bit of a larger decline, in large part because that presale segment of the market has been so slow the last- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... couple years. So there will be a decent number of rental starts, but very few or fewer ownership starts, and overall, we're forecasting, uh, down to 23,000 and change. 

Ryan Berlin: Right. Yeah, so the, the supply landscape is shifting in kind of opposing ways. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: Like, we know that the additions to the housing stock, the true additions, uh, will be coming in, in likely in, um, smaller numbers going forward. But of the homes that are completing, uh, not everything is accounted for. [chuckles] 

Ryan Wyse: So- 

Ryan Berlin: Not everything's selling, right? So the... You look at the inventory in the region, completed and unsold, and we look at resale inventory, we're still- It's come off a little bit from, I think, the Q, the Q3 peak- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... of last year, but we still have, by historical standards, a lot of available homes- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, and- 

Ryan Berlin: ... for buyers in the market. 

Ryan Wyse: And that's, I mean, that's seasonality, right? So- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, there's that, too. 

Ryan Wyse: We finished the year with the most year-end inventory since 2008 on the resale side. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. On the... Let, let's switch over to the demand side. Let's talk about demographics, let's talk about population. 

Ryan Wyse: Ooh, let's do it. 

Ryan Berlin: Let's do it. We, we, we do that a lot on this, on this podcast. 

Ryan Wyse: Yes. 

Ryan Berlin: So, and if you listen to this podcast, you know, you know, you definitely know- 

Ryan Wyse: [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: ... all about the, uh, the federal government's immigration levels plan- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... and their non-permanent resident, uh, target. Currently pegged to the end of 2027, so they want 5% of Canada's population to be non-permanent residents, international students, temporary foreign workers. By the end of next year, that's coming off of a high of around 7.5% midway through or towards the end of 2024. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: But, I mean, the context is, prior to 2021, non-permanent residents as a share of the population were... I mean, it was a small number. Like, we're talking, it was between 1 and 3% at the- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... top side, right? 

Ryan Wyse: And in absolute numbers, we went from, a couple of years ago, 1.2 million to more than 3 million- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... and now they wanna get down to 2 million people. 

Ryan Berlin: Right. These are big changes over short periods of time. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And so again, like, this is where forecasting becomes a bit of a mug's game, because it's hard to anticipate those shifts, right, like, over such a short period of time. Un, un- unprecedented increase, and then really an unprecedented outflow of people is gonna be a drag on total population. We forecast that in the outlook. Our expectation is for how many fewer people in 2026? 

Ryan Wyse: So total population, we expect across Metro Vancouver a 10,000-person decrease. 

Ryan Berlin: Excellent. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: Good insight. 

Ryan Wyse: Have we had... I was gonna say we haven't had population decline. 

Ryan Berlin: Last year. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. Oh, yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: So last year, like, we, we estimate, 'cause the numbers aren't, uh- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. This is still, I mean, you, you used our favorite overused word, but it's unprecedented. So last year, we, we estimate that we s- had population decline. 

Ryan Berlin: Mm. 

Ryan Wyse: But this is highly unusual. Um, we will feel it, especially across our housing markets. And that 10,000-person decline, part of that is we'll probably see 30,000 fewer non-permanent residents in this region. So all other sources, we'll add around 20,000, and then we'll have 30,000 fewer NPR. 

Ryan Berlin: Well, also as part of that, the domestic migration flows- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... are a drag, too. So actually, it's NPRs and, um, dom- net domestic flows- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... so people moving between Metro Vancouver and other parts of Canada- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... including BC. We expect that to be a negative, which is continuing a- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... a recent trend. Our immigration, like, our permanent resident admissions, are still robust. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm. 

Ryan Berlin: Like, the federal government adjusted the targets a little bit last year, and they're lower materially from a couple of years ago when they were at, you know, 500,000. We're now at, like, 380. 

Ryan Wyse: Still higher than 2019. Still higher than- 

Ryan Berlin: Higher than every year prior to [chuckles] 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, exactly. And that, you know, for metro areas like, like Vancouver, less so for Victoria, less so for Kelowna- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... but certainly for Metro Vancouver, we feel that here. And so we also are having, amazingly, 'cause it's not the story really nationally, we're having quite a few more kids than are, than, than we are dying- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... here. Does that make sense? Um- 

Ryan Wyse: More births than deaths. [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: [chuckles] 

Ryan Wyse: Although not provincially. So the rest of the province- 

Ryan Berlin: Is that right? 

Ryan Wyse: ... is an older- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm 

Ryan Wyse: ... generally an older population than Metro Vancouver. So we were trending more deaths than births provincially. 

Ryan Berlin: Right. So we look at, you know, the shifting supply landscape. At the same time, the demand side of our market is shifting. This has to influence-... ah, values- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: of everything, right? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: So rents and home prices. So take it away. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So if we are adding near record levels of completions and we're subtracting people, you're probably not surprised to learn that we think rents, specifically, also prices, are gonna come down a little bit. Construction takes so long. All of these completions that we're, we're getting last year and this year were decisions made when we had record population growth, when we had record levels of home sales, of new home sales, and now that we're delivering all these buildings, the, the landscape [chuckles] for population has completely shifted. And so there's this, you know, unfortunate mismatch where we're delivering homes at a time where we're actually losing people. And so our forecast is for another close to 5% decrease in new purpose-built rental rates. So that's not across all rental homes. That's sort of the leading edge for new purpose-built rental. 

Ryan Berlin: After coming down by over 8% last year- 

Ryan Wyse: 8% last year. 

Ryan Berlin: So it's a, a, a bit of a moderated 2025. 

Ryan Wyse: And that's one we said we didn't get right last year, 'cause we predicted, like, a 5%. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: And- 

Ryan Berlin: We're hard on ourselves, right? [chuckles] 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: High standards here. 

Ryan Wyse: That's right. Um, and same thing with prices. We expect benchmark prices to come down a little bit this year as well. Um, you know, we're not expecting a ton of home sales. There's a lot of inventory, and I think it'll take a while to sort of draw down inventory to historical levels, and so that will- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm 

Ryan Wyse: ... have somewhat downward pressure on prices as well. There's not a ton of population growth sort of fueling that side of the market, and so our, our supply-demand conditions on the resale side are such that, you know, I expect stagnant to somewhat small, but price declines this year. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, which I think runs counter to, um, some other organizations that are predicting a bit of a pickup in prices. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And certainly, that could materialize. I think prices, the values of things, which are really, like, the intersection, if you're going to your, like... getting back to your Econ 101 basics- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... the intersection of all these supply-side variables, all these demand-side variables, and it's really, really difficult to predict values over not just the long run, but I would say maybe even more so in the short run. 

Ryan Wyse: I mean, you did an analysis recently that you sort of pegged a level of sales on resale that were required in order to start driving prices upwards. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it's... Yeah, good point. So yeah, I did look at that because we're forecasting, as, as you had said, 38,000 MLS sales for the, for our market this year. And the question then is, like, yeah, what would it take, given conditions today, given the months of supply, the months of inventory that we have- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... which is about at eight, which is the upper end of a balanced market, but pushing into buyer's market. Yeah, I just, I asked the question, "Okay, well, what would it look like to have conditions tighten to the point where we were tipping into maybe a seller's market?" 'Cause that's when you start to see real upward pressure on prices. And so, you know, looking at the lay of the land inventory-wise, turns out it's about 55,000 sales that would be required to materialize this, this year- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... against our inventory backdrop for, on paper, us to see, yeah, upward pressure on prices. So yeah, you're right. I mean, you look at it that way, and, um, that kinda corroborates the, you know, the, the, the continued softening- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... in, in values. Let's finish up on interest rates. I know we, um, gave away our f- our- 

Ryan Wyse: [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: ... quote-unquote, "forecast" for the Bank of Canada's overnight rate. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: Which, I, I mean, in past years, it's been a true forecast. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: This year, I wouldn't call it that, because [chuckles] we're just listening to the words of the Governor of the Bank of Canada- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... Tiff Macklem, who's saying, along with the, the, the rest of the board there, "You know, we've got inflation where we want it. Like, it's been between our target of 1 and 3% for the past 24-plus months." In fact, it's been right around mostly 2% as well- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... over that, most of that period. And so they feel like they've wrangled it from a monetary policy- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... perspective. It's come down. It's, it's stable. It's where they want it to be. So, you know, it's one of these things like barring unforeseen circumstances, which could happen- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... 'cause you don't see them coming. That's the whole thing. [chuckles] 

Ryan Wyse: Unforeseen [chuckles] for a reason. 

Ryan Berlin: By definition, difficult to predict. The, the 2.25% rate, which is at the lower end of their, their neutral range, where monetary policy is neither restrictive nor expansionary, they think they're gonna keep it there all year. So we go, "Hey, if- 
⁠Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... you're telling us that, then, you know, I don't- we're not gonna push back." 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So the bank always wants to signal ahead of time. They don't want any surprises, and they've said they're right where they wanna be. They're at the level they need to be to maintain inflation. Inflation's in a good spot, so they've come out and said very clearly, and a few times over the last couple of months, they're right where they wanna be. They're not changing the rate unless something else changes. So big changes to the labor market or inflation would be a signal that they're ha- they have to change their position. 

Ryan Berlin: Right. And let's just parlay this conversation into, uh, mortgage rates. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: What's the outlook there? 

Ryan Wyse: So the... We're looking at discounted, insured, five-year fixed mortgage rates, which began the year just under 4%. Um, we think that's probably the bottom end of the range that we'll see this year. Again, they fluctuate a little bit more. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: They're based on bond yields. Bond yields fluctuate quite a bit. They're a little bit volatile right now, especially. And of course, the, it's like an average because the banks offer different rates to different borrowers, depending on their profile. But overall, 3.9 to low fours, we think we're gonna see that insured, discounted, fixed, five-year fixed rate kinda hang out and, and move through that range for the balance of the year. So not a lot of movement, maybe a tiny bit of upward movement over the year, but overall, we think interest rates, both variable and fixed, will be pretty stable this year. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Yeah, it doesn't look like inflation, uh, or interest rates-... in contrast to- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... past years will, will steal the headlines this year. 

Ryan Wyse: This year, inflation and interest rates really aren't where we're focusing a lot of our attention. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: It's, it's just other- 

Ryan Berlin: Which is different 

Ryan Wyse: ... other segments that we already talked- 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah 

Ryan Wyse: ... about earlier in this podcast. But inflation, you don't have to get up early and refresh the StatsCan page at 5:30 for the inflation data anymore, and you don't have to refresh the Bank of Canada website at 6:45 for their, uh, announcements anymore. 

Ryan Berlin: Like, I won't miss it, and I- in- in part I won't miss it, but [chuckles] it was also a little bit of a rush there. It was a few years- 

Ryan Wyse: Oh, yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... where it was like- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... "What's it gonna say?" Especially when you're... You know, we'd be putting out predictions and updating them every month, right? So, and everybody's wondering, like- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... "What is the bank gonna do?" We're not, we actually aren't having those conversations nearly as much with people. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, and I mean, I was on a bunch of videos making big proc- proclamations to, uh- 

Ryan Berlin: What'd you say? 

Ryan Wyse: ... social media. 

Ryan Berlin: What'd you say? 

Ryan Wyse: Oh, just, like, every Bank of Canada announcement. 

Ryan Berlin: Oh, like every time. Yeah. 

Ryan Wyse: Put my stake in the ground [chuckles]. 

Ryan Berlin: That's true. Yeah. I mean, listen, I think we got it- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... right most of the time, and hope, you know, I, I think we're gonna be right- [chuckles] 

Ryan Wyse: [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: ... through 2026 for the most part. I mean, you, you could see a little bit of, you know, fiddling around the, the edges here- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... where the overnight rate drops to 2%, it goes to 2.5. But I, I don't think there's gonna be any, any big direction to that. I do think, you know, when you talk about mortgage rates and, and bond yields and bond markets, like, what's happening in those debt markets, uh, government- like, you look at, uh, you know, the US... Like, typically when there's, um, economic uncertainty or slowdowns, you have investors that sort of flood into, uh, especially dollar-denominated, um- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... government debt, which tends to push longer-term rates down, and that, in turn, kind of stimulates the economy. But given that [chuckles] so many sources of global economic uncertainty and instability are, are actually now emanating from the US, and you look at the, um, the, the one big beautiful budget act, uh, which, you know, is going to bake in years of major deficits- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm 

Ryan Berlin: ... adding, adding significantly to the debt, then the question... Yeah, increasingly, there are questions around, you know, whether is that the best place to, to put your money? I mean, we're now seeing gold. Uh, it's coming off a little bit. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: Gold is pushing up. Crypto, different story, maybe different podcast. 

Ryan Wyse: [chuckles] Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: But, um- 

Ryan Wyse: We'll leave that one for now. 

Ryan Berlin: All right. Well, we'll, we'll be, uh, keeping an eye out- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... for more tariff news, but short of that, hopefully it's more steady as she goes than, than 2025. Thanks for, for bringing the data, Ry. 

Ryan Wyse: Thank you. Uh, always a pleasure, and, you know, we'll, we'll hang on to this one and revisit it in a year again. And, uh, hopefully we get more than half right this time. [chuckles] 

Ryan Berlin: Well, let's, let's revisit it in, uh, the summer. Let's see how we're doing. 

Ryan Wyse: Okay. 

Ryan Berlin: Uh, before we wrap things up, we h- we do have a listener question from Sean in Vancouver. 

Listener Question:  "Hi, Ryan and Ryan. Big fans of the show. Wanted to get your opinion on the upcoming FIFA World Cup and the impact you think that will have on house prices in the Vancouver area. Do you think we will see an increase similar to what we saw in the Winter Olympics in 2010 and the World Expo prior to that as well? Love to get your thoughts on that. Bye." 

Ryan Berlin: I'll share my thoughts. I mean, I think that, um... Like, first of all, like, how many games do we have here in Vancouver? 

Ryan Wyse: A handful. 

Ryan Berlin: We're hosting seven- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... seven or eight games. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: You know, it's not all of the world's eyeballs that'll be on us. 

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Berlin: And, you know, we, we will see an influx of visitors, for sure, and there will be some legacy impacts because there will be people who, on TV, see Vancouver for what... It's gonna be summertime, too, it's gonna be gorgeous. 

Ryan Wyse: Oh, yeah. All the exterior stadium shots. 

Ryan Berlin: Oh, yeah, and then the people who come here are gonna be like, "I didn't know Canada was like this." 

Ryan Wyse: [chuckles] Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: So, you know, I think there'll be positive legacy, um, economic impacts. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. 

Ryan Berlin: I don't know that it's gonna move the needle for housing in any kind of discern- like, for home prices- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... or sales, or even rents, you know, in any kind of material way. I think the most obvious impact will be in the short-term rental market. 

Ryan Wyse: Agreed. 

Ryan Berlin: Um, for, for, for better or for worse, in the sense of, you know, we've been clamping down on short-term rentals. Um, we don't have as many hotels as we need in the city here in Vancouver. So there's gonna be major pressure on, uh, our housing and hotel stock to accommodate whatever influx- 

Ryan Wyse:Yeah 

Ryan Berlin: ... we do get, but it's gonna be transitory. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. I would add, 2010, we had just come out of a recession, and Vancouver had come out relatively unscathed, and it was the beginning of a growth decade, really. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it was. 

Ryan Wyse: So, um, part of the appreciation in prices, or most of the appreciation in prices we saw, was o- other reasons. We- interest rates came down. 

Ryan Berlin: We had, like, a decade of consistent employment growth. The unemployment rate fell to- 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah 

Ryan Berlin:..., a historical low. 

Ryan Wyse: Strong immigration, strong interprovincial migration. We got- we saw huge numbers of people move to BC from Alberta in the middle of the decade. 

Ryan Berlin: Yep. 

Ryan Wyse: And so there's, there was a lot of other factors besides the Olympics that, you know, certainly contributed to that. One thing, though, about that, we got a lot of infrastructure investment that went with the Olympics, in particular the Canada Line and then the Cambie Plan. So- 

Ryan Berlin: Sea to Sky? 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, Sea to Sky, too. So we ended up with maybe some more housing supply in some areas that we might not otherwise have had because of the, the investments- 

Ryan Berlin: Mm 

Ryan Wyse: ... in infrastructure. So, you know, again, if you think about the Cambie Corridor, like, that, a lot of that housing is a legacy of the decision for the Olympics to bring the Canada Line. 

Ryan Berlin: For sure. Yeah, and, and- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... just to extend that, we're not, we aren't seeing those investments, um- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... at all tied to, um, FIFA, the, the, the World Cup. Yeah, likely to be a passing impact, if any- 

Ryan Wyse: Mm 

Ryan Berlin: ... more on the, uh, short-term rental market. 

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, and the tourism side, for sure. 

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Okay, well, thanks, Sean, for the question. Uh, thanks to everybody who, uh, tuned in to watch, to listen. We really appreciate it, as always. Ry, it's been a blast. Have a great time in Cabo. 

Ryan Wyse: Thank you very much, and, uh- 

Ryan Berlin: Don't be jealous 

Ryan Wyse: ... we'll, we'll check in on our predictions in six months and a year and see how we've done. 

Ryan Berlin: Done. Thanks, everybody. 

Thank you for joining us on the Rennie Podcast. If you'd like to learn more or to subscribe to intelligence updates, go to rennie.com/intelligence.