real (estate) talk | February 2026

The Economist put it appropriately in The World Ahead 2026: “Making precise numerical predictions is risky. No wonder most people prefer prognosticating in prose.” At this time last year we experienced that risk first-hand, releasing quantitative forecasts for Vancouver’s housing market right as a new US president embarked on dismantling the global economic order. Unsurprisingly, some of our predictions proved to be wildly off, while others withstood the induced chaos and played out more or less as we anticipated.

Regardless of where we were right and where we went wrong, much of the value in making such predictions lies in the efforts taken to define the context and assumptions that inform them. And so, unphased by the results of last year, we're back with a fresh set of projections for this one. What follows is a bit of prose illustrating the precise numerical prognostications laid out in our recently published 2026 rennie outlook.

Starting with the resale market, last year’s count of a little more than 35,000 MLS transactions across the Vancouver Region came well short of our estimate of 50,000 (in fact, our forecast wasn’t even directionally right). US tariffs (both threatened and imposed) and a historic drop in consumer confidence were much to blame. This year we’re projecting 38,000 sales—a modest 8% year-over-year increase—on account of interest rate stability, reduced economic uncertainty, and elevated inventory.

The new home market (which includes sales of pre-construction, under-construction, and newly-completed and unsold homes) also faced severe headwinds in 2025. Indeed, at just over 5,800 sales from Squamish to Abbotsford, this was 40% fewer than 2024 (9,740) and 62% below the prior 10-year average (of 15,100). Looking ahead, we estimate 6,300 new home sales in 2026, supported by the absorption of existing inventory and some new launches in the wood frame and townhome segments.

As a result of slumping pre-construction sales, housing starts for ownership are anticipated to fall again in 2026, weighing down total starts even as new rental construction remains strong. We forecast a third consecutive annual decline in housing starts in Metro Vancouver this year, to 23,100, down from more than 27,000 in 2025. Meanwhile, on the heels of a record year for completions (almost 30,900 in 2025), we’re forecasting a marginal decrease to 29,400 in 2026 on account of declining starts in recent years and a drop in the number of homes under construction. Still, this would represent the second-most completions in a year going back to 1990.

Finally, Metro Vancouver’s population seems to be on pace to meet our previous forecast of a 20,000-person decline in 2025 (full-year data is not yet available). This year we’re projecting another (albeit smaller) decline of 10,000 as the region continues to lose people to other parts of BC and other provinces, and as the federal government continues its efforts to reduce the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) living in Canada. Speaking of NPRs, further reductions in this group, in tandem with growing rental supply, will continue to put downward pressure on rents. We anticipate up to a 4.8% decline in per-square-foot rents regionally for new purpose-built rental housing.

Alas, we’ve run out of room in this space to share the remainder of our predictions, but you can access them all in the 2026 rennie outlook itself. Forecasts aside, 2026 is sure to be a fascinating ride.

⁠⁠⁠The vancouver rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our head economist, senior demographer, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insights and analyses. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research support a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, Seattle, Coachella Valley, and San Diego markets. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.