real (estate) talk | March 2026

Canada has experienced a series of sharp swings in population growth and immigration policy in recent years. After the pandemic closed borders and sunk population gains to multi-decade lows, three years of record increases ensued. Canada added more than three million people from 2022 to 2024, largely on account of soaring admissions of non-permanent residents (NPRs), which peaked at 7.6% of the national population in Q3 2024.

In response to this unsustainable growth, the federal government initiated sweeping changes to immigration policy in late 2024. Alongside lower targets for permanent resident admissions, targets were also set for NPRs for the first time, with the government aiming to reduce the NPR share of the population to 5% by the end of 2027. As of Q3 2025 (the latest period for which data is available), the number of NPRs living in Canada had already declined by a little more than 300,000, with sweeping effects across the country. For example, Canada added just 1,068 people through the first three quarters of 2025, while the population of BC declined by 16,788 (14,335 of which occurred in Q3 alone). It’s estimated that the number of NPRs will need to fall by another 766,000 to achieve the federal target in two years’ time.

How has this policy affected Vancouver? Well, while Statistics Canada provides national and provincial population estimates on a quarterly basis, it’s only one time per year that we get similar subprovincial estimates that really show how our communities are changing. Fortunately, the most recent estimates were published in January, and the remainder of this commentary will highlight some of the biggest takeaways that we identified.

The first thing to note is that each of Canada’s 41 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) experienced lower growth from July 1st, 2024 to July 1st, 2025 when compared to the prior 12 months (this dataset runs on a July 1st to July 1st reporting period, not a standard calendar year). Edmonton was the fastest-growing CMA (+3.1%), followed by Moncton (+3.0%), Calgary (+2.9%), and Chilliwack (+2.6%); in contrast, Montreal (+0.5%), Vancouver (+0.2%), and Toronto (-0.01%) were all near the bottom as declining NPR counts disproportionately affected Canada’s largest urban centres. Edmonton and Calgary were the exceptions to this given the offsetting impact of robust interprovincial migration to Alberta.

More specifically, Vancouver was the third-slowest growing CMA, with the population expanding by just 0.2% (6,300), to 3.09 million. To put those figures into context, the region added more than 110,000 people in each of the previous two years, and in the pre-pandemic decade from 2010 to 2019 it added an average of 41,300 people per year. Meanwhile, despite being fractions the size of Vancouver, the CMAs of Victoria and Kelowna each added approximately 3,000 people in the 12 months to July 1st, 2025. Similarly, the CMAs of Chilliwack and Abbotsford-Mission added 3,300 and 3,200 people, respectively. All told, population growth in the Vancouver CMA was its lowest, in both absolute and percentage terms, in 24 years of available data.     

Honing in on the components of population change in Vancouver, the government’s NPR policy clearly weighed on population growth, but so too did significant domestic outmigration to other parts of BC and to other provinces. Specifically, the region recorded a net outflow of 10,100 non-permanent residents in the 12 months to July 1st, 2025, and a net outflow of 20,800 people from domestic migration. While Vancouver typically loses more people to domestic migration than it gains, this marked the second-highest net outflow in over two decades. Offsetting the aforementioned declines were a 31,100 net increase in permanent residents and a 6,100 natural increase (that is, more births than deaths).

Given that the latest subprovincial population data is only updated to July 1st, 2025, this discussion does not reflect significant NPR outflows recorded in Q3 2025, nor the large outflow anticipated for Q4. The federal government still has a long way towards achieving its NPR target, so consider this discussion to be but a window into what’s in store for Vancouver’s population over the next two years.

⁠⁠⁠The vancouver rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our head economist, senior demographer, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insights and analyses. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research support a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, Seattle, Coachella Valley, and San Diego markets. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.