real (estate) talk | October 2025

Twice a year we publish the rennie landscape, an in-depth report that covers a wide range of factors that influence our real estate market. The Fall 2025 edition of the Vancouver rennie landscape was recently published, and here are three key takeaways:

1. Canada’s labour market is historically weak: though we may not officially be in a recession, a look at the labour market might tell you otherwise. Our previous landscape found that, as of February, Canada was amidst one of the longest sustained periods of increase in the unemployment rate outside of a recession or major economic shock (which at the time was 21 months). 

This latest landscape expanded on that by taking a closer look at the actual number of unemployed people. By slicing up almost 50 years of labour force data into six-month periods ending in August and February, we found that February to August of this year registered the ninth biggest increase in unemployment since 1977. Over this period the number of unemployed people increased by 122,000, to 1.6 million. Of the eight six-month periods that saw a larger increase, six were during recessions. 

What’s more, the landscape highlights the unevenness in labour market weakness. Specifically, the youth unemployment rate (i.e., ages 15 to 24), most recently at 14.6%, is at its highest level outside of the pandemic since September 2010. Meanwhile, the youth employment rate has fallen by roughly six percentage points since 2023, to 53.8%, which is far greater than the roughly two percentage point drop for core-aged workers (i.e., ages 25 to 54).

2. The supply of and demand for rental are heading in opposite directions: BC Stats is forecasting significantly less population growth over the next 10 years across Metro Vancouver municipalities. This is primarily a result of changes to federal immigration policy, which seeks to reduce the number of non-permanent residents living in Canada by roughly 900,000 over two years. As the landscape shows, this demographic overwhelmingly consumes rental housing (89%), and this is happening as the number of rental homes under construction in the region has climbed to 18,000. What’s more, there are another 75,000 units in various stages of planning. We broke these units down by estimated time to delivery and found that 75% of them are backed by blue-chip developers.

3. Canadians are so far managing their debts: the mortgage arrears rate in Canada has been rising the past three years alongside sharply rising borrowing costs, up from a low of 0.14% in September 2022 to 0.23% most recently. Context is important though: 0.23% was the lowest the arrears rate ever reached in 25 years prior to the pandemic. So while the arrears rate is indeed headed in the wrong direction, the actual level is not yet cause for concern. 

Looking ahead, Bank of Canada data shows that by the end of 2026, 60% of all currently outstanding mortgages will have come up for renewal, and about a third of those will see a payment increase. However, given that 40% of households in Canada are mortgage free, this means that only about 12% of households will see higher mortgage payments. Perhaps the wave of mortgage renewals that has drawn so much media attention in recent years will have less of an impact than feared.

These highlights are just a taste of what is covered in the latest edition of the rennie landscape, and we encourage you to check out the full report for all the details.

⁠⁠⁠The vancouver rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence division comprises our head economist, market analysts, and data scientists. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria, Seattle, and Coachella Valley marketplaces. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.