projecting a lot less of more (population growth in bc)

British Columbia is expected to realize materially lower population growth over the next decade when compared to both the previous decade and earlier forecasts. That is the takeaway from the latest population projections from BC Stats—the province’s official statistical agency—which were published over the summer. These projections highlight the significant impact of the federal government’s profound immigration policy pivot announced in the fall of 2024, as well as recent changes to longstanding migration patterns to and from BC. Naturally, lower population growth will have a wide range of implications for BC’s labour market, economy, and housing.

Over the next decade (2025-2034), BC Stats forecasts that the province will add 525,100 people, 47% below actual population growth of 985,700 over the previous decade (2015-2024). Even when excluding the last few years of record population growth and looking at the pre-Covid decade (2010-2019), the latest estimate was still 25% below the 700,500 residents that were added over that period. Furthermore, in addition to being well below our historical experience, this projection was also down considerably from BC Stats’ own forecast from one year ago, which projected 885,500 additions over the next decade. 

Over the short term, the province is anticipated to grow by just 22,600 residents in 2025 before registering an outright decline of 13,100 in 2026. To highlight how unprecedented such a decrease would be for BC, only once since the province joined the Canadian Confederation in 1871 has it actually experienced annual population decline; back in 1874, the population decreased by an estimated 2,000 residents. The province is expected to resume growth starting in 2027, adding an average of 64,400 residents per year for the remainder of the next decade. This would bring BC’s population to 6.22 million by 2034, 9% higher than the most recent estimate of 5.70 million in 2024. For context, the province grew by 21% from 2015 to 2024, and by 16% from 2010 to 2019.

Within the province, reduced growth is forecast across communities big and small, though it is interesting to note that BC Stats is anticipating less downward pressure on growth in Metro Vancouver than in other major population centres. Furthermore, BC Stats does not expect the population of Metro Vancouver to decline in any single year, whereas declines are projected for both Greater Victoria and Greater Kelowna in 2025 and 2026.

Here at rennie, we have actually been anticipating the opposite: that Metro Vancouver will see more downward pressure on growth. This has to do with the federal government’s stated goal to reduce the non-permanent resident population (i.e., international students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum seekers), and the fact that non-permanent residents disproportionately settle in Canada’s largest urban areas. For example, in 2024 Metro Vancouver accounted for 7.5% of the national population but absorbed 13.2% of the net non-permanent residents who came to Canada in that year, almost double its proportionate share. 

In contrast, smaller metropolitan areas like Victoria and Kelowna accounted for 1.1% and 0.6% of the national population in 2024, but absorbed 0.6% and 0.3% of net non-permanent residents, roughly half their proportionate shares. In the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan (released in October 2024), the federal government announced its intention to reduce the share of non-permanent residents in Canada from 7.4% of the national population to 5.0% by 2027. By their own estimates, this would lead to net outflows from Canada of roughly 450,000 non-permanent residents in each of 2025 and 2026. Intuitively, we expected that these outflows would weigh more on the populations of the major urban areas where these people reside.

While it is unclear what specific assumptions are behind the latest BC Stats projections, they nevertheless provide a robust view to the direction of population growth across the province. The remainder of this article will break down the agency’s forecasts for Metro Vancouver, Greater Victoria, and Greater Kelowna, and identify some of the key trends we found in each.

metro vancouver

As mentioned, BC Stats is indeed projecting less growth over the next decade in Metro Vancouver, though not to the same degree as in other parts of the province. From 2025 to 2034, the region is anticipated to grow by 445,900 residents, 25% less when compared to the 595,900 that were added over the previous decade (2015-2024). That is also down considerably from the agency’s estimate from just one year ago, which anticipated 566,200 new people over the next 10 years. But while growth projections have been reduced, there is no forecast for near-term population decline like in Victoria and Kelowna. Metro Vancouver is expected to add 42,300 residents in 2025 and 16,800 in 2026 before returning to average growth of 48,400 per year over the remainder of the decade. That would bring the region’s population to 3.55 million by 2034, up from 3.11 million in 2024, an increase of 14%. For context, the region grew by 24% from 2015 to 2024, and 18% from 2010 to 2019 (Metro Vancouver added 413,000 people over the pre-Covid decade).

Looking at growth trends within Metro Vancouver is where things really get interesting. Aside from Delta, Coquitlam, and Port Moody, the rest of the region’s municipalities are forecast to see less growth over the next 10 years than what was realized in the last 10. Notably, the City of Vancouver is expected to add just 35,600 people by 2034, 65% fewer than the 102,900 that were added over the previous decade. Meanwhile, the reduction in Surrey’s growth is much less significant; Surrey is forecast to add 163,600 new residents by 2034, just 8% fewer than the 178,000 that were added from 2015 to 2024. With that, BC Stats sees the total population of Surrey surpassing the City of Vancouver by 2027 to become the region’s largest municipality.

greater victoria

Among the province’s largest urban areas, BC Stats is projecting the steepest reduction in population growth for Greater Victoria (represented here with data for the Capital Regional District). The region is forecast to add 19,600 residents over the next decade (2025-2034), which amounts to a 73% reduction from realized growth of 73,800 people from 2015 to 2024. In its projections from last year, BC Stats had anticipated that Greater Victoria would add 61,400 residents over the next 10 years—more than three times the current estimate. Specifically, the region is expected to see population decline of 3,200 in 2025 and 4,900 in 2026 before returning to growth of 3,500 per year over the remainder of the next decade. That would take the region’s population to 479,900 by 2034, up just 4% from the most recent estimate of 460,300 in 2024. In contrast, the region grew by 19% over the previous decade. 

Looking more closely at growth trends within the region, most communities saw substantial downward revisions to their next-decade population projections, save for Langford. In fact, BC Stats actually projects that Langford will account for more than 100% of the region’s growth through 2034, with 21,900 additions. This is offset by expected population declines in several communities: 6,000 in Saanich, 1,900 in Oak Bay, 1,100 in Central Saanich, 1,000 in Esquimalt, and 500 in Sidney, among others. Beyond Langford, most other Westshore communities are anticipated to see their populations grow over the next decade including Sooke (2,400), Colwood (2,200), and View Royal (1,200). Meanwhile, the City of Victoria is forecast to grow by just 2,600 residents, 84% fewer than were added over the previous decade.

greater kelowna

Last but not least, BC Stats is projecting that Greater Kelowna (represented here with data for the Regional District of Central Okanagan) will add 24,300 residents over the next decade. This amounts to a 58% reduction when compared to actual growth of 58,400 seen over the prior 10 years, and is 61% less than the 61,800-person growth that the agency had forecast just one year ago. Of note, Greater Kelowna is expected to add almost 5,000 more residents over the next 10 years than Greater Victoria—that is despite the latter having almost double the population. 

In the short-term, Greater Kelowna is now expected to see population decline of 550 in 2025 and 1,400 in 2026 before returning to growth of 3,300 per year through to 2034. That would take the region’s population to 276,100 by 2034, a 10% increase from the most recent estimate of 251,700 in 2024. Greater Kelowna, which until recently was one of the fastest-growing urban areas in Canada, grew by 30% from 2015 to 2024. 

Looking more closely at growth trends within the region, the City of Kelowna is forecast to absorb the majority (70%, or 17,100) of the region’s new residents over the next decade, higher than its 66% share of the population currently. West Kelowna is forecast to add 2,900 people by 2034, slightly higher than the 2,800 expected in unincorporated areas (which includes First Nations reserves and rural areas), and higher than 1,600 in Lake Country. In contrast, Peachland is forecast to see modest population decline of 30 residents over the next decade.

different paths, different challenges

The latest BC Stats projections underscore a fundamental shift in BC's demographic trajectory, and the closing of a chapter of historic population growth. To the extent that more moderate growth (and in places, a decline) is realized in the coming years, this should serve to ease some of the pressure that has built on the province’s housing, infrastructure, and services.

That said, a long-term slowdown in population growth is not a reversal. Substantial investments will still be required to accommodate the hundreds of thousands of new residents expected to call BC home, and that’s before considering any pre-existing deficits in areas such as healthcare and housing. What’s more, such a sharp slowdown will itself come with challenges, including how to facilitate further expansion of the labour force, how to address current and future labour and skills shortages, and how to provide support for an aging population, to name a few. The coming years will show that the challenges of slower growth are no less demanding than the challenges of a boom.