migration in motion: bc's biggest population trends in 2024

To fully understand residential real estate, one must understand people and populations—how they’re aging, how they’re growing, how they’re moving, and how needs and preferences are changing along the way. Fortunately, every year Statistics Canada releases sub-provincial population estimates that provide insight on how our cities and towns are evolving and, with that, how demand for real estate may be changing as a consequence. This article will break down some of the more prominent trends from the latest data release with a particular focus on BC’s largest urban centres. (Note that all references to calendar years throughout this article represent data as of July 1st of that year in line with the Statistics Canada data) 

As most are aware, Canada has been amidst a population boom as of late. Over the past three years (2022 to 2024), the national population has increased by a little over 3 million, the equivalent of one Metro Vancouver’s worth of people. In 2024 alone, Canada set a new single-year growth record of 1.2 million new residents. That translated to a national growth rate of 3.0% (for the second consecutive year), a pace of expansion not experienced in Canada since the early 1970s. Prior to the pandemic, population growth averaged a still high but more modest 440,000 per year, or 1.2%, from 2015 to 2019.

Looking at growth trends across Canada’s 41 census metropolitan areas (CMAs), all of them registered positive growth last year (see chart 1). But look a little closer and a more interesting trend is evident; the top of the growth list was heavily concentrated with our largest urban centres. Calgary led the country with a robust rate of 6.0%, followed by Edmonton in fourth (4.7%), Vancouver in sixth (4.3%), and Toronto in ninth (3.9%). Growth in all four of these CMAs far outpaced the national rate of growth. In contrast, smaller BC markets that frequently placed near the top of the list through the 2010s (i.e., Kelowna, Chilliwack, Nanaimo, Kamloops, and Victoria) were among the slowest-growing CMAs in 2024 with growth rates well below the national rate. Specifically, Kelowna placed 38th (2.0%) and Victoria was 40th (1.7%).

Canada’s major metropolitan regions are vibrant and livable, and people have historically been attracted to them for their breadth of economic opportunities and cultural amenities. But isn’t it a general principle that a higher growth rate becomes more difficult to sustain as something gets larger? How then have our largest population centres been able to grow so much faster than our smaller ones? And why have smaller BC urban areas in particular, which consistently led the country in terms of population growth through the 2010s, fallen to the bottom of the growth list?

rethinking limits to growth

As discussed in last year’s version of this article and in more recent articles on Canadian population trends, a surge in admissions of non-permanent residents (i.e., foreign students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum seekers) is primarily responsible for the country’s heightened population growth in recent years. Not only has this put pressure on housing, healthcare, and other infrastructure, it has also changed the way our country has been growing.

To demonstrate this, chart 2 compares the distribution of the national population to the distribution of net non-permanent resident migration in a handful of Canadian CMAs in 2024. For example, last year Metro Vancouver accounted for 7.5% of the national population but absorbed almost double that share (13.2%) of total net new non-permanent residents to Canada. This trend was seen across other large CMAs with Toronto, Montreal, and Calgary all receiving a greater than proportional share of non-permanent resident migration. In contrast, smaller CMAs like Victoria and Kelowna received a less than proportional share of non-permanent resident migration. Clearly, non-permanent residents tend to settle in Canada’s largest urban centres.

To show the direct impact this has had on our major metropolitan areas, chart 3 breaks down the last 20 years of population growth in Metro Vancouver by source. International migration (i.e., permanent residents and non-permanent residents) has traditionally driven growth in the region, supported to a lesser extent by natural change (i.e., births minus deaths). These have typically offset small outflows from domestic migration (i.e., people moving to other parts of BC or to other provinces). From 2005 to 2019, population growth in Metro Vancouver averaged a little less than 40,000 per year, hitting a high-water mark of over 50,000 in 2019.

Fast forward to the present, however, and those numbers hardly compare to what the region has experienced more recently. In 2022, population growth accelerated to a record of 80,000, only to be surpassed with almost 130,000 additions in both 2023 and 2024. Higher international migration, driven by higher inflows of non-permanent residents, was primarily responsible for the sharp increase (though the number of permanent residents settling in Metro Vancouver did increase over this period, too). This situation is representative of what has been happening across Canada in recent years—large inflows of non-permanent residents have magnified population growth in our major urban centres and propelled them to be among the fastest-growing CMAs in the country.

One consequence of this is that, while more people have been settling in our biggest metropolitan areas, more people have also been leaving them. Though the numbers pale in comparison to the inflows from international migration, it is worth pointing out that Metro Vancouver saw a record outflow of domestic migrants in 2024. On a net basis, almost 21,000 people left the region last year, composed of 15,200 intraprovincial out-migrants (people moving elsewhere in BC) and 5,700 interprovincial out-migrants (people moving to other provinces). Notably, while last year’s intraprovincial outflow was similar to levels seen over the prior three years, this was Metro Vancouver's first net loss of residents to other provinces since 2013 and its largest in available data going back to 2001. Traditionally, the region has seen intraprovincial losses partially offset by interprovincial gains.

a rising tide lifts small boats, too 

Although we’ve seen that non-permanent residents have tended to settle in our large urban centres, this does not mean that the record international migration to Canada in recent years has missed our smaller ones. In fact, the Victoria and Kelowna metropolitan areas have seen three consecutive years of record or near-record population growth supported by elevated inflows of international migrants, and more specifically, non-permanent residents. Though population growth rates in these two regions have slipped below the national rate of growth in recent years, and slowed relative to other CMAs, they have still been adding heightened numbers of people in absolute terms.

Take Greater Victoria for example. From 2005 to 2019, total population growth averaged 4,700 per year with international migration accounting for about 1,400 of that, or 30% (see chart 4). In 2022, population growth rose sharply to more than double the long-run average, reaching a record of 11,800 people. That was followed by lower but still elevated growth of 7,700 in 2023 and 7,400 in 2024. As shown on chart 4, a considerable increase in international migration is what pushed population growth higher over the past three years with an average of 6,800 net admissions annually, accounting for 76% of total growth.

In Greater Kelowna, a region that was leading the nation in terms of population growth prior to 2022, the effect of Canada’s recent population boom has been to push growth even higher. Between 2015 and 2021, Greater Kelowna ranked among the top three fastest-growing CMAs in Canada for seven consecutive years, and placed first in four of them. Over that period, the region’s population expanded by 19.6% (or 38,800), the most of any CMA in Canada by a considerable margin and well above national population growth of 7.1%. On an annualized basis, the region added about 5,500 people per year over that seven-year period, with 23% (or 1,100 per year) coming from international migration (see chart 5).   

Turning to the past three years, increased international migration helped lift population growth to a record 7,600 in 2022, followed by growth of 7,000 in 2023 and a lower (but still significant) 5,000 in 2024. In the last two years specifically, international migration averaged 4,400 per year and accounted for 73% of total population growth. Ironically, while the number of people moving to Greater Kelowna since 2022 has remained at or above levels seen during the boom days of 2015 to 2021, the region has seen its position slip from the fastest-growing CMA in the country to one of the slowest. Everywhere else is growing faster.

Record international migration to Canada in recent years has buoyed population growth in smaller urban centres as well, though not as dramatically as it has in our largest urban areas. That’s in part why we’ve seen CMAs like Calgary, Vancouver, and Toronto climb to the top of the population growth list, while smaller CMAs like Victoria and Kelowna have slipped to the bottom despite maintaining pretty robust levels of population growth. That said, there’s another “Made in BC” (or perhaps “Made in Alberta”) factor to discuss that has put additional downward pressure on growth in Victoria and Kelowna specifically. 

wrong side of the great divide

If you review charts 4 and 5, you’ll notice something else just as striking as the significant increases in international migration to Victoria and Kelowna in recent years—domestic migration to these two regions declined considerably in 2024 to the lowest levels in at least two decades. Historically, the vast majority of population growth in these two markets has come from domestic sources; think out-of-province retirees and young people moving to the Island or the Okanagan for the lifestyle, and British Columbians leaving the congestion and high cost of living in the Lower Mainland for a more laidback and affordable life in a smaller city. Between 2005 and 2019, domestic migration accounted for roughly 70% of all growth in Victoria and 80% in Kelowna.

Focusing on Greater Victoria, net domestic migration to the region averaged 3,900 per year over the two decades leading up to 2024, with interprovincial migration accounting for 2,500 (65%) of that (see chart 6). Over the 2015 to 2022 period, domestic migration to the region was even higher, averaging 5,400 per year and peaking at an all-time high of 6,500 in 2022. The last two years, however, have looked starkly different. After a sharp drop in 2023, domestic migration fell even further in 2024 to just 1,300—the lowest level in available data going back to 2001. Though intraprovincial migration was at a 13-year low, it was interprovincial migration that really weighed on domestic growth. Greater Victoria welcomed just 282 people on a net basis from other provinces in 2024.

In Greater Kelowna, the trend has been almost identical (see chart 7). Net domestic migration to the region averaged 3,300 annually over the two decades leading up to 2024, with interprovincial migration accounting for the majority of that (1,800 per year, or 55%). Elevated domestic migration from 2015 to 2022 saw the annual average climb to 4,200 over that period, reaching a peak of 5,700 in 2022. In 2024, however, the region saw domestic growth of just 1,500 on a net basis, the lowest in available data going back to 2001. Like Greater Victoria, a sharp drop in interprovincial migration was much to blame. Greater Kelowna welcomed just 137 net new people from other provinces in 2024.

the alberta advantage

The fact that both Victoria and Kelowna saw interprovincial migration collapse in 2024, and that Metro Vancouver saw its largest interprovincial outflow in more than two decades, is no coincidence. It’s a symptom of a much larger trend in BC that has been in motion for the better part of two years. Interprovincial migration has long been a reliable source of population growth for the province, averaging 13,100 per year on a net basis between 2005 and 2022 (see chart 8). In 2023, net interprovincial migration slipped to just 3,400. And in 2024, it flipped negative for the first time in over a decade with a net loss of 9,200 people. Statistics Canada provides interprovincial migration data going back to the 1960s at the province-wide level. The only time that net outflows from BC have exceeded (or even come close to) last year’s figure was in the late 1990s.

The reason for the sharp shift has as much to do with BC’s own challenges as it does with the advantages of its next door neighbour. The term “affordability-driven migration” has frequently been used to describe the situation, with many of the BC’s young adults calling it quits on the province and heading east to exploit lower housing costs in Alberta. Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows that, at the start of 2025, the seasonally-adjusted benchmark price of a detached home was $2.1 million in Greater Vancouver, $1.2 million in Greater Victoria, and $1.0 million in Greater Kelowna versus $695,000 in Calgary and $472,000 in Edmonton. A strong economy and robust private sector job growth in Alberta, buoyed by a recovery in the oil and gas sector, have only increased the appeal of the province in recent years.

Chart 8 shows very clearly the dynamics that have led to BC’s interprovincial migration challenges. Over the past two years, more people have been leaving BC for other provinces than at any time in the past two decades. At the same time, migration to BC from other provinces has fallen to its lowest level since 2013. As BC’s closest neighbour, higher flows of people moving from BC to Alberta and lower flows of people moving from Alberta to BC have played a large role in influencing the overall result. In 2023, BC saw a net outflow of 8,200 people to Alberta, which was surpassed in 2024 with a net outflow of 12,400. Net inflows of residents from other provinces (primarily Ontario) over those two years helped to offset some of the losses to Alberta.

Tying this back to Victoria and Kelowna, the decline in domestic migration to these two regions has largely been driven by a province-wide shift in interprovincial migration patterns. Given that interprovincial migration has traditionally accounted for such a large share of their population growth, this shift has significantly restrained growth in these two markets relative to other jurisdictions. As such, declining interprovincial migration has played a major role in them being among the slowest-growing CMAs in Canada in 2024.

change is a comin’ 

Moving forward, there’s plenty of reason to believe that the trends discussed here will not carry over into 2025. For starters, back in October the federal government announced a profound pivot to immigration policy that, if fully implemented, would lead to population decline in Canada for the first time since Confederation in 1867. To achieve this, fewer non-permanent resident permits will be issued and more will be allowed to expire, leading to net outflows of approximately 450,000 non-permanent residents in each of the next two years. As discussed, non-permanent residents disproportionately settle in our largest urban centres. So, just as these larger markets have borne an overwhelming share of Canada’s record population growth over the past three years, expect them to also bear the overwhelming share of population decline over the next two. Overall, the federal government expects the national population to decline by 85,000 people in both 2025 and 2026. 

Where changes are less predictable, but entirely plausible, are on the interprovincial migration front. It's worth noting that the flow of people between BC and Alberta has always oscillated, and that oscillation has often coincided with the rise and fall of Alberta’s natural resources-driven economy. Should economic conditions in Alberta soften vis-a-vis BC, then the forces drawing people to Alberta would weaken. In this new era of increased international trade uncertainty, Alberta stands out for its economic exposure to the US. Meanwhile, BC has the second-lowest US export exposure of any province. For the sake of Canada, we all hope that a prolonged trade war with our southern neighbour can be avoided. However, in the event that it is not, that may have a disproportionate effect on Alberta. That is but one circumstance that could tilt interprovincial migration flows back in favour of BC.  

The new year has brought with it tremendous uncertainty for the Canadian economy, housing markets, and life in general. One thing that is for certain—next year’s edition of this article will look very different from this one.