a common refrain: it’s all population gain

With the latest release of Labour Force Survey data from Statistics Canada, a familiar story emerged. On the one hand Canada added more than 90,000 jobs in April—which may have been a surprisingly high number to some observers considering the weakness in the economy as the country responds to restrictive monetary policy. On the other hand this was indeed the most jobs added in a single month since January 2023, it still follows the broader trend of late, which is that record population growth that has been boosting employment and masking an otherwise soft labour market.

We explored this topic in the latest rennie landscape, where job growth may have been robust in 2023, but it paled in comparison to the record-setting population growth.

And it’s this trend that continued in April, where the 90,000 additional jobs trailed both population growth (111,800) and labour force growth (107,500). As a result unemployment likewise increased (albeit by only 17,000 jobs).

What’s more, the majority of the increase in employment last month came in the form of part-time work rather than full-time. And close to half (42%) of the rise in part-time employment was to those who wanted to work full-time but were unable to find full-time positions.

Overall, the data continue to point to a labour market burdened by high interest rates. With the national unemployment rate unchanged (at 6.1%) even after the April job additions, and inflation at sub-3% for three consecutive months now, there is a plethora of evidence in favour of an interest rate cut in June.