real (estate) talk | June 2025

The period from March to May—often referred to as the spring housing market—is typically the busiest time for home sales and new listings in BC. In the Vancouver Region, monthly sales have peaked during this period in six of the past 10 years (three times in May), and monthly new listings peaked in nine of the last 10. Of course, with more than six months left in 2025, it is not yet certain whether activity has already peaked. However, what can be said for certain is that this spring market was particularly light on sales and heavy on new listings.

The US presidential inauguration in January and the abrupt change in US trade policy since has had a significant impact on housing market activity in BC. This has manifested through a sharp drop in consumer confidence, which has significantly suppressed buyer demand. As evidence, this year’s spring market saw 9,545 MLS transactions in the Vancouver Region, down 21% year-over-year and 38% below the past 10-year average. Notably, this was the second-slowest spring market in available data back to 2005. Only 2020 registered fewer sales (7,827), a time when much of the country was in lockdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

In contrast, 30,618 homes came to market between March and May, the third-most since 2005. Elevated new listings have been driven by a range of factors including higher completions, housing policy, and financial and economic conditions. Together with constrained sales, this helped push active listings to 25,562 at the end of May, up 30% year-over-year and 57% above the past 10-year May average. All told, this marked the most inventory in the region since September 2012.

Focusing on sales in May, there were some signs that consumer confidence and buyer demand may have improved from the lows seen in March and April. MLS sales of 3,353 were up 7% month-over-month, almost double the typical 4% April-to-May increase, and sales were closer to their long-run monthly average (though still far below). Similar trends were seen in Victoria and Kelowna. This correlates with data from the Conference Board of Canada showing that consumer confidence improved marginally in May amid signs of easing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Looking ahead, a handful of factors could support increased demand in the months ahead. The federal government has tabled legislation to remove the GST for first-time homebuyers on new homes priced up to $1.0 million, with some savings on purchases between $1-$1.5 million. Once passed, the savings will be retroactive to purchases since May 27th. Additionally, after holding its key policy rate at 2.75% for the second consecutive meeting in June, the Bank of Canada signalled a willingness to cut interest rates further in the coming months. Headline inflation fell below target to 1.7% in April (largely due to the removal of the consumer carbon tax), and Canada’s labour market has continued to weaken, especially in those regions and industries most affected by tariffs.

Overall, economic uncertainty and weak consumer confidence are expected to continue to  weigh on homebuying activity in the months ahead. However, reduced taxation and lower interest rates will provide welcome support for some prospective buyers, and could support relatively higher activity levels later in 2025.⁠⁠

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⁠⁠⁠The rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence division comprises our head economist, market analysts, and data scientists. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insight and analysis. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research supports a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Kelowna, Victoria, Seattle, and Coachella Valley marketplaces. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.