real (estate) talk | May 2026

Twice a year we publish the rennie landscape, an in-depth report that covers a wide range of factors that influence our real estate market. The Spring 2026 edition of the Vancouver rennie landscape was recently published, and here are three key takeaways:

1. Canada’s labour market remains historically weak: even though Canada has not fallen into a recession, the level of labour market deterioration experienced over the past four years rivals that of some of the biggest economic shocks of the last three decades. As of February 2026, the national unemployment rate (at 6.7%) had been softening for a period of 44 months; it was 40% above the previous low of 4.8% reached in July 2022. The duration of this downcycle has already exceeded that of the Covid-19 pandemic, and it has surpassed that of the 2001 .com bubble in both duration and depth. Only the 2008 Global Financial Crisis saw a more prolonged weakening of the labour market (it took 115 months for the unemployment rate to return to its pre-crisis level). That said, 44 months into that downturn the unemployment rate was around 20% above its pre-downturn level.       

A couple months have passed since the landscape was written and Canada’s labour market has only weakened further, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.9%. All told, through the first four months of 2026 Canada has lost 112,300 jobs (111,300 of which were full-time positions). That’s a reversal of more than half of all the jobs gained in 2025 (211,300). BC’s labour market has fared even worse. From January to April 40,200 jobs were lost (31,500 full-time), more than unwinding total gains of 18,500 in 2025. The provincial unemployment rate was 6.8%.   

2. BC’s population declined for just the second time in history: the provincial population declined by 41,461 people in 2025; the last time that happened was back in 1874. This was entirely a function of the federal government’s policy to reduce non-permanent residents (NPRs) to 5% of the national population by the end of 2027 (their share reached as high as 7.6% in late 2024). BC lost 80,915 NPRs last year, which was only partly offset by a 35,352 increase in permanent immigration, a 3,175 growth from domestic migration, and a 927 natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths). 

Overall, BC accounted for 40% of Canada’s population decline in 2025 despite only making up 14% of the population at the beginning of the year. This is because BC has a disproportionate share of the country’s NPRs. For more information on national and provincial population trends last year, this brief and informative article we wrote has you covered. 

3. It would take a substantial shift in MLS sales activity to yield a sellers’ market: the Vancouver Region housing market was in balance for most of 2025 with between 5.0 and 8.0 months of inventory (MOI). This year started deeply in buyers’ market territory with an MOI of 11.0 in January. We forecast that upwards of 55,000 MLS sales would be required to yield sellers’ market conditions (an MOI below 5.0), which is typically where sustained price growth occurs. However, a more realistic forecast for sales this year is 38,000, which would be up only marginally from a count of 35,000 last year (it should be noted that four months into 2026 sales are actually 8% below last year’s trend). In other words, the prospect of rising prices is a longshot.

To explore that topic further, the rennie landscape provides additional context on where condo prices are likely headed. Forty-three months after peaking in May 2022, the benchmark condo price was still down 10% from that high-water mark at the end of 2025. The duration of this correction has far exceeded past ones; it took 21 months for prices to return to peak during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 35 months during the price downturn that started in 2017. We forecast that condo prices will fall another 4% in 2026. 

These highlights are just a sample of what is covered in the latest edition of the rennie landscape, and we encourage you to check out the full report for all the details.

⁠⁠⁠The vancouver rennie review is a monthly publication that includes our take on the latest MLS data for the Vancouver Region. In addition to presenting neighbourhood-level stats, it includes information on current rennie projects, a selection of featured listings, and insightful commentary on how and why the market is changing.

Our rennie intelligence team comprises our chief economist, senior demographer, market analysts, and business intelligence analysts. Together, they empower individuals, organizations, and institutions with data-driven market insights and analyses. Experts in real estate dynamics, urban land economics, the macroeconomy, shifting demographics, and data science, their industry-leading data acquisition, analytical systems, and strategic research support a comprehensive advisory service and forms the basis of frequent reports and public presentations, covering the Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, Seattle, Coachella Valley, and San Diego markets. Their thoughtful and objective approach embodies the core values of rennie.