The rennie podcast is about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Tune in for monthly discussions making sense of the latest market data.
EPISODE #89: THE FINE PRINT IN METRO VANCOUVER'S BUYERS' MARKET
Join Ryan Berlin (Chief Economist and Vice President of Intelligence) and Ryan Wyse (Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst) as they are joined by top-performing rennie advisor Danny Chow to discuss the latest resale and new home market trends. They explore the fine print behind Metro Vancouver's buyers' market, including why conditions are beginning to tighten, where sellers still hold the advantage, and why local market knowledge matters more than broad regional headlines. The conversation also examines record-low new home sales, changing buyer behaviour, and what the latest inflation data means for interest rates and housing.
Featured guests:
Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence
Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager
Danny Chow, rennie advisor
We’d love to answer your real estate questions. Email us at [email protected] or leave a voicemail, and we’ll try to respond in future episodes.
Transcript
There was not a single concrete tower launched in Q1
For the last couple months, it's felt like we're maybe reaching the bottom of this cycle.
Sales last month were about 1, 1.2% higher than the year before.
There's still limited inventory in certain pockets.
Coquitlam, townhomes. Langley, townhomes. Mission, townhomes. North Van, townhome.
Fixed rates, they were starting to move, so that created a, a sense of urgency for people.
We have all these condos under construction today they'll complete over the next couple of years, and then a huge gap in new supply that comes in behind it.
You gotta be a little bit more, more open-minded-
Yeah
.. and a little bit more creative in this market.
Ryan Berlin: Welcome to the Rennie podcast. I'm Ryan Berlin, Chief Economist and Vice President of Intelligence here at rennie, and as always, I'm joined by Ryan Wyse, our Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst. God, our titles are long. [laughs]
Danny Chow: [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: We need acronyms.
Ryan Wyse: You wanna do acronyms?
Ryan Berlin: You would be MIMLA.
Ryan Wyse: MIMLA?
Ryan Berlin: That works.
Ryan Wyse: Okay.
Ryan Berlin: Ryan Wyse, MIMLA. And I would be CVIP. [laughs] I don't know. That's worse.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, I don't know that that is gonna catch on anytime soon.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. We are joined, so we're joined by Danny Chow today, whose-
Ryan Wyse: Welcome
Ryan Berlin:... title is a lot simpler. He's a Rennie advisor, one of the longest serving and highest performing advisors here at Rennie. You've been in the business for 30-plus years?
Danny Chow: 31 years this year.
Ryan Berlin: 31 years. Were you like 10?
Ryan Wyse: Didn't you just have a big milestone recently that, uh, a lot of people were celebrating?
Danny Chow: Uh, I had a 20-year, what they call a medallion lifetime member.
Ryan Wyse: Wow.
Danny Chow: So it's a 20 years being in the medallion club for the MLS.
Ryan Berlin: What does that mean, though?
Danny Chow: Basically this means that you've been one of the top producing agents in Greater Vancouver for the last 20 years at least. Yeah, it's been a long time, and it was very exciting to be acknowledged on stage. There's only 10 other people this year that was actually part of that club, and I think overall they said there's only 250, 300 people that's been in this, like, lifetime member club or something like that theoretically.
Ryan Berlin: That's amazing.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, that's impressive.
Danny Chow: So yeah, it's been a long time. So all 31 years with, uh, Rennie, since the beginning. So-
Ryan Wyse: Wow
Danny Chow: ... long time.
Ryan Wyse: Amazing.
Danny Chow: Long time.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Danny Chow: So thanks for having me.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, and so I mean, to be acknowledged, just, just going back to that, being acknowledged in that way is really impressive too, because it's over... You're, you're, you've... That means you were successful in every kind of market.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: Yeah. Well, starting in '95, like, in the '90s and going through the, kind of, uh, year 2000 and the, kind of the financial crisis. I saw the Olympics. I've seen all the ups and downs of all the different markets, and it's, uh, it seems like every time you have these different types of market, it goes in the cycles. And usually it, these cycles I find that it's, it's kind of like a, a six to nine-month cycle that it goes through. But-
Ryan Berlin: Hmm
Danny Chow: ... for some reason, this cycle has been a little bit different, more, more difficult to kinda-
Ryan Wyse: Four-year cycle.
Danny Chow: [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: For lots of reasons.
Danny Chow: So.
Ryan Berlin: So lots to chew on today. We're gonna dive into the latest resale and pre-sale/new home numbers.
Ryan Wyse: We're not using pre-sale.
Ryan Berlin: All right. New home numbers. We'll talk about why we should be selling on the perception that it's a buyer's market everywhere out there.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: You see what I did there?
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. So I think this is a, the selling... That's what my kids say. They say, "You're selling," and that means that you should be... No, wait, no. What does it mean?
Ryan Wyse: I don't know. My-
Ryan Berlin: You're selling
Ryan Wyse: ... my kids are younger.
Ryan Berlin: You're selling, it's like-
Ryan Wyse: I have to put up with all that slang
Ryan Berlin: ... it's not a good thing. It's like a negative thing.
Ryan Wyse: Well, we tell, we don't sell.
Ryan Berlin: We do.
Ryan Wyse: [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: We do. But we're gonna be selling on the perception that it's a buyer's market-
Ryan Wyse: Okay
Ryan Berlin: ... everywhere. We'll talk about how we should interpret the latest inflation figures that were released this week, or last week, depending on when you're listening or watching. Okay. Let's start with the resale market. 3,100 MLS sales in April. Still a third lower than the historical average for the month, but for the first time since January of last year, we had year-over-year increase in sales. Does that matter, really? And what does it tell us about where we're at in the market right now?
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, it matters a little bit. So sales last month were about 1, 1.2% higher than the year before, so about the same level. But I think how we got here is quite different than, than last year, and I think that's important context for how the year's progressing.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: Sales were so low this January. We started from a, a really low level, and the month-to-month increases from Jan to Feb, Feb to March, March to April, were much greater than last year.
Ryan Berlin: Mm.
Ryan Wyse: Last year we started off on a much higher note, and then a whole bunch of stuff happened with tariff threats and Liberation Day and all of that, that the seasonality that we would typically see wasn't really at play last year. And so this year we started from a lower place, but I think seasonality has kinda come back and, and so the month-to-month changes have been much greater this year, and that's how we went from sales being much lower than 2025 at the start of the year to now a little bit higher for the first time in a really long time. So I think the trajectory of the market has been quite different this year than last.
Ryan Berlin: And then what about on the inventory front?
Ryan Wyse: Similar trend in the opposite direction. So we started the year with more inventory, a lot more inventory than last year, and, and much higher than sort of that past decade average.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: And again, seasonality is in play where inventory starts the year at kind of a bottom, and then it picks up month after month after month, and it plateaus kind of in the summer. So it kinda peaks usually around May or June. This year, the pace of increase is much less than last year, and that's because of so many fewer new listings. So sales, as we just said, have been increasing, but they're not particularly high.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: But so many fewer new listings coming to market means inventory's no longer expanding nearly as much as it did last year. And I think overall we're seeing conditions tighten a little bit and be a little bit healthier than last year, where conditions were, I think, were a little bit more extreme with really low sales and really, really elevated inventory.
Ryan Berlin: For the last couple months, it's felt like we're maybe reaching the bottom of this cycle, because for the first time in a long time, we have had a decrease in inventory on a year-over-year basis. And now with the April sales data, we see a year-over-year increase. None, none of it's anything to write home about, but it is the cessation, maybe, maybe, of a longer term trend that we had seen of softening sales and, and rising inventory. There's a bit of a tightening Generally, like this is not a tight market at this point.
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: But we have, as you said, fewer would-be sellers listing their homes. Like, we see this in the aggregate data, but obviously what, what Ryan and I see, and what we're looking at, it's numbers, it's not people, right?
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: We're not working with clients-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... who are buying and selling. So what are you seeing on the ground?
Danny Chow: There are buyers looking. I guess there's a lot more inventory to choose from. The sense of urgency, they're just checking everything out. Certain areas, if people are looking for, uh, if it's a school district, kind of for growing families, close to family, everything, there's still limited inventory in certain pockets. So if a client's looking in those particular areas, then there's obviously not as many options to choose from. So I think those are some of the factors that I think are, people are looking at. But if you're looking for areas that have a little bit more inventory, the sense of urgency, they're, they, they just take their time.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: Um, I think what had happened was affordability of properties. It just depends on that potential buyer. When I was working with the one particular buyer, for example, they wanted, uh, a place in w- Vancouver west side area. They got a growing family. Uh, the parents both live within the area, and we went to look. There, there wasn't too many options to choose from. So other places, if you want to take a client out, there, you got 20, 30, maybe even 40 homes to take a look at.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: But when we went to look, there was only maybe eight places to look at, and it helped narrow things down, 'cause I think, like what we talked about, inventory in that area was quite limited, right? So I think that was one of the biggest factors out there with, with clients. And honestly, I think ever since coming out of spring break, it's been, it's been quite steady, so to say.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: I think the other factor is the interest rates. People with pre-approved mortgages, typically they're about 90 to 120-day hold, and they've actually recently started to go up. So anybody that has a lower rate has to find something within that period. So that's the sense of urgency, I think, that wasn't happening 'cause the rates were staying relative- I'm gonna talk about fixed rates. I'm not gonna-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. [clears throat]
Danny Chow: ... talk, not talk about, like, the bank rates and everything, but the fixed rates, they were starting to move. So that created of a, a sense of urgency for people.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it's an interesting perspective 'cause I, uh, is, what you're hinting at is that there's, there's paralysis by analysis in-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... in a sense when you have so many options, right?
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: You start to really hone in on little details that maybe aren't that material.
Danny Chow: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: But they seem like a big deal because there are so many options in front of you as a prospective home buyer.
Ryan Wyse: And there's not a lot of competition, especially last year where there's all these new listings, not a lot of buyers. Prices have been falling. Rates were falling last year. So I think, you know, all those things add up to your point, like a lack of urgency.
Ryan Berlin: There was no urgency.
Ryan Wyse: [clears throat] You know, we'll talk about the Bank of Canada and-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Ryan Wyse: ... and their rates later.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: But I think that's a good point. Bond yields, since the start of the war, have come up quite a bit.
Ryan Berlin: In the Middle East, yeah.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: That, that war.
Ryan Berlin: That war. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: Yeah. Not, yeah, not since the start of the other war, uh, in 2022. That's still going on.
Ryan Berlin: Still going, yes.
Ryan Wyse: Um, and the banks were actually slow, for once, to pass on cost of that. So fixed mortgage rates have now started to come up, and they probably will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
Ryan Berlin:Well, I think there was a feeling too that... Now we're kinda getting ahead of ourselves here. I think there was a feeling-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... that the conflict in Iran was gonna be short-lived.
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: And the impact on oil markets and the potential then to, uh, impact further inflation was gonna be limited, right? And so now it's like, how many days in are we? We, we're, we're 80 days in, something like that.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: And this problem, this challenge now for global markets is not going away-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... anytime soon, doesn't seem. As we go back to local markets-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... you know, we talk about in some places there's potentially more urgency because there's less availability.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: Uh, because of a neighborhood, the types of homes that people are looking for. And then in other parts of our market, we are seeing a lot of availability. So broadly speaking, the market we characterize as balanced based on-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... the number of months of inventory that are available. So, you know, region wide, it's at seven and a half. Anything between five and eight is balanced. But that doesn't describe every part of the region. So where are we seeing, if we're looking for buyer's markets, 'cause everyone just thinks everywhere is a buyer's market, I think. That's the perception. Like, if you're a buyer, you're in the driver's seat. So those markets do exist. Where do we see those?
Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [clears throat] I, I think there's a couple themes that we're gonna, we're gonna see between buyers and sellers markets. So some of the areas we're seeing buyer's markets, so th- first of all, the overall detached home segment is technically a buyer's market right now, and specifically on the west side of Vancouver, in East Van, North and South Burnaby, West Van, White Rock, Surrey, North Delta. So a lot of those markets, what do they have in common? Affordability's challenging. Detached homes are still very expensive. A lot of people can't easily get into them. There's also, I think, in the city of Vancouver, a lot of those homes are older, either need some work or-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... are being priced as, like, a multiplex land site.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: So there's additional, I think, inventory that's not, like, a true detached home. It's more of, like, a tear down product, but it kinda gets categorized as a detached home.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it's development pricing as opposed to end user pricing.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, so I think, you know, well, more broadly speaking, it's the less affordable stuff in higher priced areas on the detached side. And then on the condo side, South Burnaby, Surrey, Downtown Vancouver all used to be very popular with investor buyers, and we know that investor buyers aren't really very active at all right now.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: And so there's a lot of inventory. Either the sellers are investors or end users competing with a lot of investor product. And again, those markets have also seen a lot of purpose-built rental come in to compete with for renters. And so I think those specific markets, there's-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... additional challenges. There's a lot of inventory that I think was built, that was geared towards investors, and the investors aren't buying right now.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. And we were talking about it before we were recording that, like, a lot of this, uh, investor geared product too, that's been built in certain parts of this region, it's commoditized product, right?
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: And so there's not necessarily a lot of differentiation, I think that's perceived by buyers from one building- ... to the next. There is a relative abundance now of, uh, these very similar types of homes, and not a deep-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... obviously not a deep market for them. But on the flip side, there are pockets of this market where the sellers are more in the driver's seat.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah. And again, you'll probably sense a, or, or perceive a theme when I read off some of the sellers markets that we have. Coquitlam, townhomes. Langley, townhomes. Mission, townhomes. North Van, townhomes.
Ryan Berlin: I sense a theme. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: Pemberton, townhomes. Port Moody, townhomes. Squamish, townhomes. West Van, townhomes. And then also Squamish and Pitt Meadows condos, so not entirely townhomes. But I think it's end user, family product, less expensive neighborhoods.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: And I would also describe a handful of these markets as lifestyle areas.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: You know, you think about, like, Squamish, Pemberton, North Van-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... Coquitlam too, you know, you're close to trails, like, mountains-
Ryan Berlin: Outdoor
Ryan Wyse: ... all that kinda stuff. So I think the product that's geared towards families that's relatively affordable in locations that families like to live in, seller's market still today.
Ryan Berlin: What about the-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... just honing in on that, you know, broadly defined product type, not townhomes specifically, but the duplex market in Vancouver.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: Are you seeing any interesting dynamics there? Do you have any anecdotes related to that segment?
Danny Chow: I feel that a lot of people are kind of looking into those duplexes, the new multiplexes and everything, uh, because of no strata fees. 'Cause sometimes in these-
Ryan Wyse: Mm
Danny Chow: ... these buildings, a townhouse, you could have strata fees of 3, 4, $400 a month. But if you get in a duplex, these multiplex, you're, you're saving 3 to $400 a month. So they're moving towards that. And I feel that also with duplexes now, even with multiplexes, families can, can buy and live close together.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: And that's what I've been finding too.
Ryan Wyse: Mm.
Danny Chow: Another type of product that I've been finding out there with these duplexes is builders are doing duplexes with legal mortgage helpers now, which didn't exist as much from before-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, right. Yeah
Danny Chow: ... if you, if you have a duplex, right? So-
Ryan Berlin: So how does that work? Like, what does that look like?
Danny Chow: Just recently sold one where they had a three-bedroom, three-bedroom up, and they had a one-bedroom legal, a mortgage helper downstairs.
Ryan Berlin: Oh, wow. Yeah.
Danny Chow: And that was on the Cam- close to the Cambie corridor.
Ryan Berlin: Okay.
Danny Chow: So downstairs, if you can get 15, 15, $1,600 a month, somewhere around there, it helps towards your payments, right? As opposed to buying... 'Cause I was working with a buyer actually, and we were looking at anywhere from a townhouse to a duplex.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: And we were looking at townhouses in that area, and townhouses were probably around 1.7 to 1.8 for what they were looking for. But number one, it didn't have a mortgage helper, and number two, it had, like, a $500 a month strata fee. So we kind of turned around and went to look at duplexes where number one, you're paying maybe 200,000, $300,000 more, but you don't have the strata fees.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: Right? So y- if you don't have the strata fees, you're saving on that, and then you got a mortgage helper, right? So it, we made that switch basically looking from a townhouse and went to duplexes.
Ryan Wyse: The rent's also considerably less. Like, an apart- a one-bed apartment in that area goes for a lot more than 1,500 a month as well.
Ryan Berlin: Oh, yeah.
Ryan Wyse: So I think the attractiveness for a renter, you know, in this market is there too. You can get... You know, it's a basement suite, so-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... you know, like, it should be priced less.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: Uh, you know, you have smaller windows, no views, like, all that kind of stuff, less amenities. But, um, you save a lot on rent, so there's certainly an, an opportunity for someone who's a little more price sensitive to get onto the Cambie corridor as a renter.
Danny Chow: Yeah. I think going back to what you guys were talking about, just the selection out there, it just more things. Like, when before, when the market was a lot crazier, there's a lot of investors that were buying.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: Investors, it's dollars and cents. They run the numbers and everything, and then if it works, it works, right? But now what's happening is, like you had mentioned p- before, most of the buyers out there aren't as many investors out there. Now we're dealing with a lot more end users or people looking to live in. So when people are looking to live in, they're checking drawers, they're checking for h- your, how many bathrooms it has.
Ryan Berlin: There's emotions.
Danny Chow: Yeah. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Danny Chow: Exactly. Exactly, right? So-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Danny Chow: ... I think that, that, that's a big change too for a lot of people.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Danny Chow: It just, it takes more time when people are buying for themselves to live in. And I'd be the same way. If I'm buying a house to live in-
Ryan Berlin: Absolutely
Danny Chow:... I'm not gonna be buying the first one-
Ryan Berlin: Oh, yeah
Danny Chow: ... I look at, right? Just because the number's there. Now I've got four or five places, I'm gonna check if, has the garage I want, the two-car garage, a, a mortgage helper, a man cave, you know what I mean? All these different things-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Danny Chow: ... that, that I would look for. So I think that's kind of where it's changing. I think going back, like-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Danny Chow: ... it's slowly, slowly trending, not quite, but I, I feel it's like it's hopefully getting to that balanced market like you guys were talking about, right? Where a house that was listed, let's say seven, eight years ago, was selling in one to two days, right? It's not normal, right?
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Danny Chow: We're not, we're not, we're not stock market, right?
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Danny Chow: So everybody treated it like a stock market, which they shouldn't. Like, real estate has always been a long-term, a hard asset, and people just have to realize that. And I think sellers have to make that connection also too. It's not always like that. It's gonna be a balanced market, hopefully getting back to it. And the other thing is I think that what I've been seeing actually out there that's different than what I saw in the last, say 10 to 12 years, is a lot of these deals that I'm working on with sellers these days, I'm getting a lot of subject to sales happening again. And subject to sales in the last 10, 10 to 12 years, people are asking, "What is a subject to sale?" [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: Absolutely.
Danny Chow: Right? But back in the day, like 20, 25 years ago, it was a normal subject to have, would be a subject to sale.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: Like, you wouldn't be buying a place without selling your place, right? And I think that's kinda changed too. So back in 10, 12 years ago when this was happening, we saw the number of sales happening, 'cause if somebody bought a place, before they sell, you knew it was gonna re- be two reported sales, right? Now what's happening, they're not gonna buy until they basically sell their place. So that limits the number of sales being reported too, 'cause it takes time, right?
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, absolutely.
Danny Chow: And I think that's something that a lot of sellers have to get used to, and that, that they're not used to. When you approach them with a subject to sale offer, they're, at first they're like, "How-"
Ryan Berlin: It's uncomfortable.
Danny Chow: It's, yeah. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: Right? I mean, as a seller.
Danny Chow: Yeah, as, as seller. But I think if you, at the end of the day, if you sit down, explain to them how the process works and everything-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Danny Chow: ... um, and just guide them through it, it's, it's something that is more relevant out there with any offers. In the last probably two months, I've probably done f- ... three, probably three or four subject to sales.
Ryan Berlin: Oh, wow.
Danny Chow: And hopefully today I should have one of the subject to sale conditions removed on one of my listings.
Ryan Berlin: Now, on those offers where you do have a subject to sale, are you the only offer or are you competing with others who have subject to sale as one of their conditions or, or don't? 'Cause I would imagine as a seller, I mean, I've been in that position before where you-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... you have a couple of offers that come in-
Danny Chow: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... and the subject to sale, if, if you don't have to deal with that-
Danny Chow: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... you don't.
Danny Chow: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: So do you fi- are, in these situations too, are you finding that you're the lone prospect?
Danny Chow: It usually depends on how long the place has been on the market for. Obviously, if you're a fresh new listing and you got activity on it, it's probably not something that you would probably try to accept. But if it's, if the property's been sitting there for a month, month and a half, two months, then yeah, I think it's something worth exploring. Because-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Danny Chow: ... the other thing is when you do these subject to sales, you actually have a clause that you put in there that actually allows the seller to give notice to the first group to remove the conditions if they get another acceptable offer.
Ryan Berlin: Mm.
Danny Chow: So there is different ways that you can put clauses in there that kinda gives you that backup along with-
Ryan Berlin: Right
Danny Chow: ... still being available to general public. I actually had, in the last three, four months, I've probably had two where we'd actually accepted a subject to sale, but another better offer came in, and we actually had to give 48 hours notice to the first offer to remove subjects. If they didn't remove subjects, we would go with the second deal. You gotta be a little bit o- more, more open-minded and a little bit-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Danny Chow: ... more creative in this market. Everybody's situation's different from a buyer or seller, and you just have to assess the situation because every- everyone's different.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, everyone's different, and conditions continue to change and evolve. We talked about there being, relatively speaking, a lot of interest in, in duplexes and townhomes. Where we're not seeing a lot of interest is in the pre-sale segment of our market, the new home segment. So let's pivot to that. In Q1 of this year across Metro Vancouver, we had fewer than 1,000 new home sales. And we'll-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... you, I know, Ryan, you'll-
Danny Chow: [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: ... you'll, you'll dive into that and break that, that, that less than 1,000 number down in a moment. But that was the lowest Q1 that we've seen since tracking of this data began 15 some odd years ago.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: And it was a third down versus the Q- the Q1 number from last year, which went on to be the lowest new home sales count on record.
Ryan Wyse: Yes.
Ryan Berlin: Give us some context to the... What is the number? It's less than 1,000. 970-
Ryan Wyse: 974.
Ryan Berlin: 974.
Ryan Wyse: And that's condos and townhomes together, new of all construction statuses. So true pre-sale, under construction, completed product. [clears throat] Fewer than 1,000. So again, last year was the second lowest Q1. We're a third lower. So we're on track to break our all-time low record that we set last year.
Ryan Berlin: Just to put some numbers to that, we were around 5,800 last year.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: And we are tracking to about 4,000 this year.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, if that holds. It would be fewer than 4,000.
Ryan Berlin: It'd be fewer.
Ryan Wyse: Although, I mean, there's some seasonality. Q2 should be higher on a seasonally adjusted basis, but yeah, we'll see. So if we look specifically at condos, 'cause we've been talking a lot about how there's so much completed and unsold condo inventory, and we break down the sales by construction status, so more than half of all condo sales were under construction projects. So 52% were condos in some stage of already under construction.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: 42% were completed, so move in today. You buy it, you get the keys, you're the first people to live in it, but it's already done, ready to go. 6% was true pre-sale.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, 6%.
Ryan Wyse: So we're not calling-
Ryan Berlin: I mean, we're talking-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, we're not calling [laughs] yeah.
Ryan Berlin: It's less... It's fewer than 60 sales.
Danny Chow: Oh, wow.
Ryan Berlin: [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: Yeah. And because there's so much completed inventory, so much under construction inventory, we're not seeing a lot of launches, so naturally, that means there's fewer pre-sales as well, even amongst, you know, what little activity there already is. So we saw 21 buildings complete last quarter, so completed inventory actually went up even though that's where more than 40% of the sales were. So we went from about 3,500, just shy of 3,500 completed unsold condos to just shy of 4,000, and that i- is the most in more than 15 years now.
Ryan Berlin: So again, that is 4,000, so condos, so we're talking these aren't townhomes. These are-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... units in wood frame and concrete buildings. There's approximately 4,000 of them move-in ready, so they've never been lived in, and they're just empty.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: They're, they're, they're ready for a buyer. That's a, I mean, that's a huge number, right?
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, and then there's still more than half of all inventory is unsold condos under construction, so there's still quite a few condos-
Ryan Berlin: Mm
Ryan Wyse: ... coming, but then there were practically no launches in Q1. So there's going to be another, like, wave of completions.
Ryan Berlin: Right.
Ryan Wyse: So there was 342 homes brought to market in new launches in Q1. That's the lowest quarterly total ever. The three lowest quarterly totals ever was Q1 of this year and Q3 and 4 of last year.
Ryan Berlin: Right. Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: There's basically going to be this thing where we have all these condos under construction today. They'll complete over the next couple of years, and then a huge gap in new supply that comes in behind it. There was not a single concrete tower launched in Q1, which has never happened in any quarter since tracking began in this market.
Danny Chow: Wow.
Ryan Wyse: There hasn't been one through the first half of Q2, and there won't be one in Q2. If, if one was coming, we would've heard already. So there's never been a quarter in this market where a concrete tower hasn't launched before. Even in Q2 2020, when the world shut down for COVID-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... and people went home and baked sourdough and washed their groceries, there was still one developer in this market like, "Yeah, I can, I can sell a tower in this."
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: So they sold, they sold virtually, of course. But even in, like, that chaotic scene, we still had one concrete tower launched, but not this past quarter. So-The investor buyers aren't there, the pre-sale buyers aren't there, and there's all this inventory to chew through, so developers just aren't bringing much product to market. The occasional infill condo, suburban town home, that sort of thing is still coming a little bit. But what that means is, you know, three to five years from now, there's going to be a huge gap in supply, and it's gonna line up with, as we've talked about a lot on this podcast, when population growth picks back up in 2028-
Ryan Berlin: Hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... and demand really starts to come back.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: Uh, it's not easy to just, to turn the supply tap back on because it takes so long to actually bring homes to market from, you know, launch to sales to construction to ultimate completion.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. We should say, too, that with the, just, just to clarify for people who are listening, that there is added risk in trying to bring these larger projects to market, right?
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: Because here in BC, for projects that have 100 or more units, you, you have 18 months to actively market and sell enough of those homes that you can secure financing from a lending partner. Call it, if it's a, a conventional bank, we're talking about th- needing to sell 60 to 70% of your building by revenue-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... over 18 months. And the absorption isn't there. So it's just, it's simply too risky to, you know, push all your chips in as a developer and get to the point where, you know, you've launched this tower, you've built a presentation center, you've created all of this marketing material.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: You've, you are generating leads and reaching out to people and creating this excitement and investing time and money only to launch into a market where realistically, at the current absorption rate, it, it might take you, you know, three, four years to sell a 200 unit tower.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: Right? So whereas, you know, with the smaller wood frame buildings, there's still risk there, and absorption still isn't, you know, what we would see in a typical market, but you can typically get those, you can sell to a lower revenue threshold, and you have to sell, uh, less volume to actually get those projects-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... built.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: Right?
Ryan Wyse: No, for sure.
Ryan Berlin: So that's where we see the market pivoting. So are you, I mean, you work with clients in resale and in the new home space, are you seeing buyers gravitate more towards completed product than in the past?
Danny Chow: Definitely. I think the, the biggest difference is, like you had mentioned, it's just the, the risk involved. I think back in the day, call it 15, 20 years ago, when people were buying pre-sales, pre-sales were always meant to be below, the pricing meant to be below where the finished product was.
Ryan Berlin: [laughs]
Danny Chow: It allowed you time to grow while it's being built to bring it up to the market level or being above the market level for investors or passive investors to invest and make some money.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: But what's happened, I found over the last probably five, six years, developers are pre-charging people a premium on top of, of what the current market is, right? So when the current market is at, let's call it whatever, $1,500 a foot, and developer's pre-charging somebody $1,800 a foot, then what's gonna happen is you're taking the risk of hoping that product goes up $300 a foot in the next three years, right?
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: But if you go buy finished product today, you don't have that risk, right? You're buying at today's market, so you're not taking that risk of hoping it j- it jumps up. You're buying a finished product. You can live in it right away. You can rent it out right away, and you know what today's interest rates are, so you're not taking a risk. But before, just like with, with anybody where, where if you're buying something, it has to be some type of potential upside to it. You know what I mean? So that's kind of what buyers were looking for before. But today, I think they're kind of pivoting to kinda like finished product, resale, just, just for the reasons I, I just mentioned to you. Like, it just, people don't wanna take that risk of pre-paying, right? [laughs] So.
Ryan Berlin: Well, and I think more so, um, I mean, unfortunately more so than we'd seen for years and years and years, we are over the last couple of years seeing projects where the future of that project, its viability is uncertain, right? So you might buy in as a pre-sale buyer, you know, early in that marketing period-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... when a project launches with the hopes that everything is on track, that there are enough other buyers, you know, financing can be accessed so that the building can be constructed-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... and you can ultimately, you know, take delivery of that unit in say three to four years. And now there's more uncertainty today in that regard that a building that you've bought into will actually be finished-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... than, than there has been in probably a couple of decades.
Danny Chow: Oh.
Ryan Berlin: Right?
Danny Chow: No, for sure. And I think developers kind of, and obviously it, it's a business. Nobody invests hundreds of million dollars just for fun, right? [laughs] Obviously it is a business for, for them, and I understand where they're coming from. I think from, from a buyer standpoint, there's, I think developers might have to kinda change it up a bit, where I've seen actually some developers, um, I can't remember who it is, actually been offering these programs where they're guaranteeing you the price-
Ryan Berlin: Yes
Danny Chow: ... when, when, when it's finished for two to three years down the road. They're guaranteeing you the price. So I think, I don't know exactly the promotion, but someone was like, "If the market goes down, your price goes down," kinda thing. So they kinda take that uncertainty out. I, I can't remember which developer it is. So they just gotta be a little bit more creative to get, to entice the, the pre-sale market.
Ryan Wyse: We've also seen buyers, like there's been a few projects that we've done where they start construction, they do a huge communications blast, and then a few more buyers come in because they wanna see that construction's started 'cause that's a signal to, oh yeah, this project's-
Ryan Berlin: That's a big deal
Ryan Wyse: ... definitely going ahead. It'll complete. I, I like the project or I like the location, whatever they're excited about.
Danny Chow: Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: There are buyers out there who will just wait to see construction start, so they get that additional certainty even though they're not necessarily waiting till
Danny Chow: No, and, and you're right, right? 'Cause mostly the ones that I think that are really important these days for, for buyers is the developer reputation. Can they withstand-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Danny Chow: ... something that happens?
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: They don't wanna get into a project where suddenly they lose their money or it's delayed for 10 years. They, they don't want that uncertainty. But if they're, it's a bigger developer, um, then there's a little bit more kinda trust behind it. I think that's really important too. Uh, but yeah, going back to unless for pre-sales, like unless somebody's planning for down the road, if their, if their kid's going to UBC later on next three years and they can, wanna get them a place on the west side, then you might buy into the pre-sale. You know what I mean? But if not, then you're just looking at finished product out there, right?
Ryan Berlin: And as we've said, you know, I think we need to see before we can reasonably expect the true pre-sale market to turn a corner, we need to see conditions in resale change.
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: And we'll need to see a period of time where values, home values are starting to increase again, right? And that, that gives people the confidence then to, to move into that-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... that pre-sale space.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah. I would add that we need to see inventory draw down too, both completed and then under construction inventory too.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: There's, there's so much available today that-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Ryan Wyse: ... that's another factor in why we're not seeing a lot of new product come that it's competing with stuff that's already on the market.
Ryan Berlin: I mean, you can find something to move into today, and, and because it is an end user market, that's what people are looking for.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: So investors, maybe the calculus is a bit different. So let's talk about inflation. We don't wanna talk about inflation, but we're gonna talk about inflation. West Texas Intermediate oil has been over $100 a barrel for the last two, three months. We all know from just driving around that gas is, is way up. It's been north of $2 for a month and a half. I mean, you just saw, what did you see?
Ryan Wyse: 2.28.
Ryan Berlin: 2.28.
Ryan Wyse: Yesterday. Yep.
Ryan Berlin: Yesterday. So there is this perception, I mean, there's a bit of, I think there's a bit of anxiety around inflation ticking up. Obviously, the headline rate is influenced by retail gas prices, so, you know, the fact that gas is higher is going to impact the headline rate. I mean, the biggest concern is that the price of gasoline, of diesel starts to permeate every category of the consumer price index. Be- I mean, any physical good that we consume has been moved around using fuel of some sort, right? So I mean, what we're looking for now is are these rising oil prices, gas prices starting to impact the cost of everything across the board? Now, we did just get the latest reading of the, uh, CPI, so for April, um, a few days ago.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: It wasn't as bad as we thought.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah. It was... It's funny, inflation went up, so in March it was 2.4%, in April it was 2.8, and we got excited because actually [laughs] it was not as bad as we thought.
Ryan Berlin: Because you're a nerd, and also.
Ryan Wyse: You know, I think rightfully people have anxiety. We went through a pretty bad period of inflation. The price level has come up and has stayed high. Things are expensive. They're much more expensive than they were, say, five years ago.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: But inflation came down, inflation was tamed, and the Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate, and things were looking good from an inflation perspective for more than two years. At 2.8%, we're still within the bank's target range of 1% to 3%, but more importantly, like you just said, we wanted to know whether this high price of oil and gas had been started to sort of bleed through into the price of goods. And through now two months, so March and April, it hasn't.
Ryan Berlin: Hmm.
Ryan Wyse: So if you look at inflation excluding gasoline, so all other things excluding gasoline, it went from 2.2% in March to 2.0% in April. So it came down a little bit.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: Core measures that the Bank of Canada really cares about came down a little bit in April. They're at 2.0 and 2.1, so CPI trim and CPI median. So that's all great news within the context of some pretty tough news on, like, high gas prices, things still being relatively unaffordable. So the price of everything else other than gasoline is not increasing very quickly. There's also, as baked into that headline rate, is the base year effect from last year, where last April there was the removal of the consumer carbon tax. And so that plays into the year-over-year-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse:…percentage change of the math. So we knew that inflation, headline inflation was gonna come up this April no matter what. So all in all, it is to say that this is pretty good, and for me, this cements the Bank of Canada's decision to not do anything on their next announcement, which is on June 10th.
Ryan Berlin: Especially against the backdrop of what we're seeing in the labor market.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: 'Cause the latest jobs data showed an unemployment rate nationally that ticked up again to 6.9%. We've had 112,000 net job losses year to date in 2026.
Ryan Wyse: And participation is coming down. Labor force partic- so the labor force is shrinking.
Ryan Berlin: So yeah, there's not a lot of, like, strong signals coming from the economy, and certainly from the labor market, that point to an economy that needs cooling.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: So I think that is encouraging that the underlying core measures of inflation are modest and coming down. And to your point, there's not gonna be a move by the bank in June. I think their next meeting after that is in July, and then they skip August into September. So I mean, realistically, we are likely not looking at a rate change until at least the fall.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: And, and perhaps not then, because again, the, you know, the bank sees this for what it is, and, and, and as the data evolve, the perspective will evolve. But we're not dealing with inflation like they are in the US. The narrative coming out of the US is quite different, because I think the latest read there was 3.8%, if I'm not mistaken.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah. They had higher inflation coming into this period. They have tariffs on everybody.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: Or almost everybody. Uh, and so they've, and they've a, a hotter labor market than we do. So they've been dealing with more inflationary pressures in, at home. in their country than we have here.
Ryan Berlin: It's gonna be interesting to see how that plays out down there-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... with the new governor of the Federal Reserve coming in with a, I'd say effectively a mandate to cut rates.
Ryan Wyse: [laughs] Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: Uh, we'll see how that goes.
Ryan Wyse: But like you said earlier, Danny, fixed rates have started to come up because bond yields have come up.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: So the Bank of Canada is not raising interest rates, but fixed mortgage rates are rising.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. And so for you, Danny, like obviously, you know, people who are participating in the real estate market will notice that. They'll notice how interest rates are changing. With the clients that you're working with, are they sort of a step ahead of that, and are they looking at, let's say a c- a conflict abroad and the impact on oil and how that's now resonating in the local economy and what that might mean for their real estate purchase or for them selling? Like, are they thinking about the economy in these more holistic terms, or does it really come down to, like, prices and interest rates?
Danny Chow: I think it depends on the actual, if it's a seller or buyer. So as an in- investor/seller, so to say, yes, they're looking at interest rates and everything. It's all a numbers game, right? So if the rates are gonna be high, th- it's tougher to, to make the numbers make sense, right? So as a buyer, I find that I always tell my clients there's really no good times and there's no bad times to buy real estate, because if you're looking in a particular area where you want, once again, I keep on saying where your kids go to school-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Danny Chow: ... or you're close to parents, it might not come up when, when you're looking, right? So if you're looking, I always say that as a buyer, I have a very interesting story on which I can tell you another day. But I had one client who, who was buying, wanted to buy a place, and they saw three places they liked, but they didn't wanna offer on it.
Ryan Berlin: [laughs]
Danny Chow: And I was like, "This place checks all the boxes. Like, what are you waiting for?"
Ryan Berlin: It's like a grade five romance.
Danny Chow: [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: It's like, "Just tell her you like her."
Ryan Wyse: At the, at the dance.
Danny Chow: [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Danny Chow: And I was like, "Okay, I'm just curious. Like, I, I... You don't have to buy if you don't want. I'm just curious for my sake, can you let me know what's holding you back?" And they're, they're like, "Well, if we put in an offer today, I think it shows that, um, we're too serious, and the seller is not gonna come off on their price." I go, "Really? That, is that what you think?" And I said to them like, "Okay, well, is there a price that if this place sold for, would you be upset?" And I said, "If this place sold for this dollar, how upset you would be?" And he said, "I'd be very upset." I go, "Perfect. So why don't you try and offer around that number?"
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: "And if it doesn't work, then we move forward. But if that's your only fear, that, it just doesn't make any sense for you to, not to try an offer in this market." I go, "For you to assume that somebody would be upset and all kind of stuff, you don't know what the scenario is, right? Let's try."
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Danny Chow: And long story short, we tried, and it went, it went back and forth a couple times, and it ended up, we ended up [laughs] getting it for less than what we had targeted for.
Ryan Berlin: Right.
Danny Chow: And they got the place they wanted, and they're quite happy.
Ryan Berlin: Awesome.
Danny Chow: So [laughs] I think it goes back to kinda there's no good times or bad times. You just have to find the right time for you.
Ryan Berlin: Absolutely.
Danny Chow: So yeah. So that was an interesting one.
Ryan Berlin: All right. Before we wrap up, we have a question from Farouk in Vancouver.
Listener Question: Hey, Ryan. This is Farouk from Vancouver. It feels like everyone's a little stressed in the market right now. Buyers seem nervous to make a move, and sellers are struggling with pricing and expectations. From what you're seeing, who's having the tougher time right now?
Ryan Berlin: Okay. Well, I realize that question was directed at the Ryans, but I think, Danny, you're better positioned to-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... address it.
Ryan Wyse: I think we should-
Danny Chow: Have me
Ryan Wyse: ... take the lead on that one.
Danny Chow: Farouk, I think just to answer your question, I think in today's market, it's probably a little bit more difficult to be a seller right now. It's because out there, there's a lot more inventory for buyers to choose from, so when buyers have a lot of options, it takes longer to sell a property these days. So if a s- seller has a vacant property, they're paying higher interest rates. So typically, I would think right now it, it'd be tougher to be a seller right now. Um, buyers, yeah, they have a lot of options, and if you find the right one, if, if you shoot your shot, you might get a good deal out there, right, as a buyer. So definitely I think it's, it's tougher f- to be a seller right now in today's market.
Ryan Berlin: We're fortunate, I think, from a, a broad market perspective that while it is tougher for sellers, I think there's not as much urgency to sell as there might be if the economy... Even though it's not doing well, you know, when we look at, like, a, an '08, '09 situation-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... right, where you have, you know, a swath of people, homeowners, who lose their job, then you, you have a group of people who need to sell. They don't have an income to support their mortgage payments. They need to sell. Now, of course, people in every market need to sell for various reasons, but I don't think we're seeing that economic impetus to listing and selling right now that we've seen in other downturns. I think there's a risk there that the, the economy does go south-
Danny Chow: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... and we do see more listings because people can't afford to be in their home. I don't sense that that's the reason people are listing right now. But nonetheless, still challenging for those who do have a reason to-
Danny Chow: For sure
Ryan Berlin:... to sell and move, right? Thanks again for the question. If anyone else has questions for us, you can email us at [email protected], or you can leave a voicemail at speakpipe.com/therenniepodcast, and we'll try to respond in our next episode. Before we wrap up, Danny, any final comment? And if not, I mean, if you have a final comment, that's great.
Danny Chow: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: If you don't-
Danny Chow: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... are there contact details that you would like to share with people if they wanna get in touch?
Danny Chow: Yep. Uh, just some final comments. I think just going back right now where if you're a buyer, I think it's a great opportunity out there to buy, depending if you want a house or a condo. There's definitely a lot of opportunities, and I think this is the time to act on it if, if you're actively looking. So I can be reached at, uh, [email protected], so that's [email protected], and my number is 604-765-2469. Thank you.
Ryan Berlin: Awesome. Danny-
Ryan Wyse: Thank you
Ryan Berlin: ... thanks for being with us again.
Danny Chow: Thanks, guys. Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: That was a lot of fun.
Ryan Wyse: Anytime.
Danny Chow: Anytime, anytime. Thank you.
Ryan Wyse: Thanks.
Ryan Berlin: And thanks, everybody, for listening and watching, and we'll see you next month. [upbeat music]
Thank you for joining us on The Rennie Podcast. If you'd like to learn more or to subscribe to intelligence updates, go to rennie.com/intelligence.
