The rennie podcast is about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Tune in for monthly discussions making sense of the latest market data.
EPISODE #91: DIGGING INTO METRO VANCOUVER'S LAND MARKET
Listen (or watch) as Ryan Berlin (Chief Economist and Vice President of Intelligence) and Ryan Wyse (Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst) are joined by rennie commercial advisor Andrew Hutson to explore a part of the housing market that often doesn't get the spotlight: land. They discuss the latest resale and new home market trends before taking a closer look at land assemblies, developer activity, and why today's land market offers important clues about tomorrow's housing supply. The conversation also examines pricing expectations, deal structures, and where opportunities may be emerging for developers and landowners.
Featured guests:
Ryan Berlin, Chief Economist and Vice President of Intelligence
Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager
Andrew Hutson , rennie commercial advisor
We’d love to answer your real estate questions. Email us at [email protected] or leave a voicemail, and we’ll try to respond in future episodes.
Transcript
Andrew Hutson: I think this is the 1st time in my career where people are actually looking. It's just nothing makes sense.
Ryan Wyse: It was the 2nd fewest July sales of the past 20 years.
Ryan Berlin: It's down now, but I'll list and I'll catch it on the way back up.
Ryan Wyse: Sellers as a group aren't really distressed. They're not needing to sell.
Andrew Hutson: Land assemblies are collaboration.
Ryan Berlin: Right, right.
Andrew Hutson: As much as it is adversarial between, like, I want this and I want this, you are working down the same path.
Ryan Wyse: Prices are generally coming off, but not as much as last year.
Ryan Berlin: In this market, that's the only way you're gonna see a new concrete tower come to market.
Andrew Hutson: Social housing policies do not work.
Ryan Wyse: Basically no condo launches or very few condo launches happening.
Andrew Hutson: Stay out of the game if you don't know what you're doing 'cause it's a challenge. [instrumental music]
Ryan Berlin: Welcome to the rennie podcast. I'm Ryan Berlin, chief economist and vice president of intelligence here at rennie. As always, I'm joined by Ryan Wyse, market intelligence manager and lead analyst. How you doing, Ryan?
Ryan Wyse: I'm great. How are you?
Ryan Berlin: Super, super. It's been a while since we recorded-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... an episode, so-
Ryan Wyse: A li- a little while. We're back.
Ryan Berlin: Happy to be back. With us is Andrew Hudson, commercial advisor here at rennie and someone we've been excited to have on the pod because we get to talk about a part of our market that we don't usually spend a lot of time on, and that is land and the land market. Welcome. Thanks for-
Andrew Hutson: Thank you very much.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: Thanks for having me. Glad to be here.
Ryan Berlin: It's great to have you here. Why don't we start by you telling everybody about yourself and how you got into commercial and land development?
Andrew Hutson: For sure. So I actually went to UBC Sauder School of Business, got my commerce degree in real estate, knowing all along that development and land was gonna be where I wanted to be. I then went to actually AutoProp, which every agent that's listening here-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... will know about, and I sold that for a couple years right out of university. And then after that, realized I was teaching land assembly more than I probably should be and just started doing it myself. So right after that, jumped in. It's been 10 years. I've gone to some, you know, multinational companies and then decided that with you guys and your knowledge and the economists you have here, I decided to come to rennie Commercial, and it's been a blast.
Ryan Wyse: Awesome.
Ryan Berlin: We are happy to have you here. So are you typically repping developers and approaching landowners, or are you working with landowners, getting them together and taking deals to developers, or is it both?
Andrew Hutson: Yeah, it's, it's always both. I mean, when you're already focused on a very niche market like land, you can't just be picking one. Over the years, you realize who's doing what and where, and then as time goes on, you try to get as many listings as possible. But a lot of the, a lot of the deals I have done is buy side just because I know what they're looking for. I've been working with them long enough-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... to say, "You get me this box in this area-"
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... "at this price, and I will do it." And okay, and they know then that I've done enough of them that they can trust in me to get that across the line. But my goal always is to try to maintain control just because land assemblies are already challenging enough, so you wanna have the control if possible.
Ryan Berlin: So what do you mean by control?
Andrew Hutson: So that means, like, the listings and knowing that what you're expressing to the-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... homeowners or to the people owning the land that you're gonna run the gambit for them and-
Ryan Wyse: Right
Andrew Hutson: ... making sure they understand the process and-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, got it
Andrew Hutson: ... understand the timelines and understand the pricing 'cause-
Ryan Wyse: And getting all the homeowners on the same page, which I imagine is one of the hardest parts.
Andrew Hutson: It's extremely challenging, and if you have someone on the other side that might not have done it as much, some of the finer points are missed, and that's where deals fall apart.
Ryan Berlin: Is there, like, a critical number where it becomes difficult to get a number of homeowners or landowners on board together singing from the same hymn sheet as you're assembling land? Like, do you, do you find that, like, if it's 2 or 3 parcels that, yeah, typically, it, it, it, you, you can get them on board? Or is it like, no, th- there are challenges always if you have more than one?
Andrew Hutson: There's always [laughs] challenges when you have more than one. I mean, even one, [laughs] there's challenges.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: My number is 4. If I try to keep it at 4, if I... The next person, and o- obviously it can, matters en masse too.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: Sometimes you need to get more to get to a certain frontage or a certain size requirement. I try to go as long as I, until I hit a impasse. So I hit, until I hit the, the guy on the block or the woman on the block.
Ryan Berlin: Then you cut it off?
Andrew Hutson: 'Cause the brain damage-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... isn't worth it.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: Like if you're-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... if someone is saying, "I want 75$ million for my 33-footer," I don't need you. I would rather work with the people that are on the same page, singing from the same hymn book. Makes it much easier to get the things across the line.
Ryan Berlin: Absolutely. So on tap today in this episode, we've got the latest on the resale market here in the Vancouver region, and dare I say... No? Okay, I won't say it. [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: I was gonna say there are some green shoots, but-
Ryan Wyse: You don't even like that term.
Ryan Berlin: I don't, I don't. I think, I think what it is, though, is trying to acknowledge that, you know, there are some, yeah, there are some evolutions in the, in the market and in the dynamics that are, um, moving us away from one extreme and more towards the middle. But I won't, I won't use that term again. [laughs] We've also got new data on how the new home segment of our market fared in Q2.
Andrew Hutson: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: And probably the nicest way I can put it is it was a mixed bag of results.
Ryan Wyse: Yep. Okay. [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: Nicest way. [laughs] And then finally, we'll delve into the state of the land market right now. We'll talk land assemblies, and we'll explore where the best opportunities are over the next 12 to 18 months for both landowners and developers. Wyse, over to you. Let's start with resale. What's the latest from the July data?
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, I'd, I'd say the market's kind of plodding along. We had this sort of slow but steady increasing pace through the 1st half of the year. So January through June, we had month-to-month increases every single month. That ended in July. We had a month-to-month decrease, which is kind of in line with seasonality. So we were over 3,000 sales in July, barely. It was the 2nd fewest July sales of the past 20 years, actually. But the last 4 months kind of right there in that 3 to 3,500 total MLS sales for the-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... the Vancouver region. So it's kinda just slow and steady in terms of, of MLS sales. So year to date, we actually haven't hit 20,000 sales yet, which is, uh, 6% less than last year, the fewest year-to-date sales we've ever tracked in this market, and last year being sort of that record low annual sales. Uh, so we're tracking below- ... um, through 7 months of the year now. So again, there's not a lot of buyers out there. We've said it time and time again, month after month. Um, on the flip side and why you were kind of referencing some green shoots or some differences in the market-
Ryan Berlin: I never said that. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: You said, sorry, alluded to, is the listing side. So new listings are off. So new listings keep coming in lower than last year. There's fewer people bringing homes to market. And actually in July, we also had new listings at 10% below average, uh, about 7,400 new listings. So inventory, which typically grows through the 1st half of the year, was growing. It grew much more slowly. It peaked now in June. It's come off in July. So because inventory is growing much more slowly than last year, the gap has sort of grown between total listings last year and this year. So at the end of July, inventory was 7% lower than last year. It's fell to just below 24,000 active listings. And so that's, uh, still 35% above the past decade average, but a few months ago, we were talking about 50% above average. So again, trending back towards more typical levels of inventory. It's allowed that months of inventory metric to tighten up a little bit. And overall, I think much less of an extreme market where, yeah, sales are still low, but again, inventory is not quite as elevated as it has been.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. It's interesting. We've talked about this before, trying to unpack the reasons for new listings being down-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... and for inventory receding from its recent highs, because otherwise the market, like the demand side of the market's kind of unchanged. I mean, we're down this year versus last, but it's-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... it's kind of been a flat market for a while now. And it's an interesting one, right? I don't think we have a definitive answer, but I think it does speak to perhaps an acknowledgement, implicitly or otherwise, on the part of, you know, o- homeowners that the market, it kind of is what it is now. Like, I don't know if, if people were thinking, "Well, it's down now, but I'll list-
Ryan Wyse: Right
Ryan Berlin: ... and I'll catch it on the way back up." And I think maybe a- anybody who was thinking that is looking at the market now going, "I don't necessarily see that happening in the next like 6, 12, and maybe even 18 months, so I don't need to list. I don't need to sell. I'm not gonna list." And that's the other part of it too, is that, you know, we've talked a lot about the stagnation in the economy and our labor market, which is underperforming or at least has been actually deteriorating over the past few years. It's kind of stabilized recently. But it hasn't gotten to the point by any stretch of the imagination where we have homeowners needing to sell en masse.
Ryan Wyse: Right, yeah.
Ryan Berlin: Like, we don't have urgent sellers for the most part.
Ryan Wyse: And we're still right in the middle of this wave of mortgage renewals, where all the pandemic originators are now 5 years into their term.
Andrew Hutson: So when does that stop? When's that-
Ryan Wyse: So the-
Andrew Hutson: ... that over?
Ryan Wyse: You think about it, it started kind of summer, fall 2020, and it went right through to early 2022.
Andrew Hutson: Okay.
Ryan Wyse: So like next spring is when transactions-
Ryan Berlin: All clear.
Ryan Wyse: It's like 5 years after transactions really slowed down.
Andrew Hutson: So everyone in the market at that point would be pro- most likely-
Ryan Wyse: But since then, we've also had a bunch of people take 3 years or 2 years who have already renewed-
Andrew Hutson: Right
Ryan Wyse: ... at lower rates as well. But again, the point is like sellers as a group aren't really distressed.
Andrew Hutson: Right.
Ryan Wyse: They're not needing to sell, and I think that's part of the reason transaction volumes or transaction counts haven't really-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... picked up all that much or have come off. The sell side of the market isn't desperate to make a deal.
Ryan Berlin: While we're talking about the market as a whole, let's, let's hone in on, um, detached for the-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm, yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... the land angle. So what's happening with the inventory of detached homes right now?
Ryan Wyse: So inventory isn't particularly elevated to long-term history because the sort of stock of detached homes has, uh, decreased over the years because so many people have done land assemblies, knocked them down. So there's fewer detached homes in the market. So that inventory isn't particularly elevated from, say, 10 years ago because there was just more detached homes available 10 years ago. But in terms of a months of inventory metric, it is the highest of any of the market segments. It's the one true buyer's market is at 9.3 months of inventory. And if you look at it, if you like dig into the listings, and I- we've chatted about this before, there's a lot of, call it detached listings that aren't true detached. They are older homes. They're tear downs. They're land listings-
Andrew Hutson: That's what I was gonna get to, yeah, yeah
Ryan Wyse: ... categorized as detached. And in some areas of the market, in some locations, it's like half the listings. We did an analysis where we looked at the age of the home. We scoured all the realtor notes for like development site, like all that stuff. And it was... And in some areas, it was more than half. And so part of the reason there's so much extra inventory relative to sales in detached, I think, is 'cause, you know, part of that segment is just land. And how much [laughs] are those homes transacting?
Andrew Hutson: Well, and this is the interesting part, because when you say that, that is... I don't do residential sales per se.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: Like I-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... I do them, but not in the traditional sense. And when I go out and look for my smaller builders, 'cause that's typically who's now in the market more so than the big guys, they're looking and we're... I'm looking at lots and it's, "Okay, we're below assessed. We're asking." And then you see them transact, and it's 3, 4, $500,000 less than they were asking. And you realize what these things are. They are effectively expensive tear downs-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... that are now making up that big chunk of the market. A lot of the stuff I see that is nicer improvements are definitely not where they were priced, but they also don't need to sell.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: Because now it's not, "I'm trying to get out of this thing that's-
Ryan Berlin: That's right
Andrew Hutson: ... falling apart, and I'm looking for a builder to buy it." And-
Ryan Berlin: Like on the, the downward side of the depreciation curve.
Andrew Hutson: Exactly.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, yeah.
Andrew Hutson: And so you're seeing these things transact at numbers you're like, "Ooh," like, "That must not have been fun." Unless they bought it in 1986-
Ryan Wyse: Which they may have. [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: ... and who cares?
Ryan Berlin: Exactly.
Andrew Hutson: They can still whack a money. And that's when the ones I think are not moving are the ones that bought in the last 10 going, "I don't wanna realize that loss."
Ryan Berlin: That's right.
Andrew Hutson: "If I don't have to, why bother?"
Ryan Wyse: And are the one-offs typically multiplex? Like, and, you know, if it's just a single home on, say, a 33-foot lot, like there's only so much you can do with it-
Andrew Hutson: For sure
Ryan Wyse: ... if it's just one homeowner listing.
Andrew Hutson: And I think multiplex took off, right? There's... I don't know how many there are now, but the last time I checked-
Ryan Wyse: A lot of locations
Andrew Hutson: ... there was hundreds.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: And you kind of go like the new fad. Everyone jumps in. I don't want... "Oh, I go- saw this deal." Those numbers have already come off drastically from the 1st bunch that bought them and they're trying to-- the first ones are now reselling or, or selling out and trying to see what they can get. And I think a lot of builders that were trying to level up jumped out of duplexes and went there. Another one said, "No way." Like, "I know what I'm doing. I've been doing duplexes forever. 33-footer is a duplex. I'm not doing anything fancy." For the multiplex stuff, you usually need about 44, 50 feet to get the parking stalls, to get the number of units that you actually want. And then depth of lot is extremely important. If you don't have, you have a 108, 110, like it's almost not buildable anymore, just the way build codes work.
Ryan Wyse: Right.
Andrew Hutson: You want the 130, you want the 150s to actually give you some design aspects. And I think going forward, those are the ones that are gonna be-- dictate the market. When the first ones come out and they get great numbers, you're gonna go, "Okay, was that a good design or not?" And the design factor of these multiplexes is gonna be the piece that separates going forward.
Ryan Berlin: So does that mean, like if, if, if you, if you need sort of these specific dimensions, uh, for a site, for a multiplex to really work well, does that mean then if we look at some of these neighborhoods that have smaller lots, like in East Van, let's say, where you might have to assemble a couple properties to put in a multiplex, does that mean-- does that preclude the multiplex from being an opportunity there if, if assembly becomes part of that conversation? Like, does it have to be on a single lot?
Andrew Hutson: It has to be on a-- So the way that works in my understanding of R11 zoning is that it's individual building per-
Ryan Berlin: Oh, okay
Andrew Hutson: ... development permits per one. So I've just did a deal a little while ago where it was 2 on the same block and I was like, "Oh, does it help you if they're contiguous?" No, it doesn't change anything because of the way this works.
Ryan Berlin: Interesting.
Ryan Wyse: Okay.
Andrew Hutson: But for financing sake or for looking at it from a perspective of the banks, well, now it's could be looked at as one site 'cause they can do them side by side. So it's not a one multiplex, it's a multi-unit building or a multi-faceted project.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: And they can look at financing a different-- bit different. But I mean, each group has their own very particular, like, "Well, I only want this 33 by this," or, "I only want this," or, "I only want that neighborhood." But the 50-footers are probably the most ideal, 50-foot-ish plus-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... on the west side with a very low improvement on an interior street-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... and the motivation from the seller to wanna get something done.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Typically older?
Andrew Hutson: Definitely.
Ryan Berlin: Like an older homeowner? Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: Definitely.
Ryan Berlin: So for you, in looking at your book of business right now, or I, I don't know if right now for you is typical, uh, or not. [laughs] I mean, maybe in terms of volume it's not-
Andrew Hutson: The last couple years-
Ryan Berlin: ... you can speak to that
Andrew Hutson: ... the typical has been [laughs]-
Ryan Wyse: [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: ... pretty typical, yeah.
Ryan Berlin: But in terms of, of mix where you're sort of exploring opportunities, like single lot opportunities versus assemblies, what does that look like for you right now?
Andrew Hutson: That for me is more buy side, because there's so many listings that are out there every day, all the time that are coming on the market, you have to be mindful that no one builder usually can do the job they're doing every day and look.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: So you can help with the looking on the market for those deals. It's harder in my mind to do, like, hunting for multiplex lots 'cause you're hunting for motivation. Like-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... there are thousands of these things out there, but if he doesn't wanna sell for what the new market is-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... which is probably lower than he thinks or they think-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... it's hard to get that. So I'm looking for the ones that are on the market that have that said motivation based on price point and then go out there and pitch. 'Cause a lot of these guys still want time, right? Like, money's not cheap. They're just sitting on it. They'd much rather get a bit of time for it or go subject free or, you know, very little subjects-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... and pay you cash, but hammer you on price.
Ryan Wyse: So when you say time, you mean like a longer close. So you tie the site up and then you close down the road so they have time to get, you know, their approvals in order and-
Andrew Hutson: For sure
Ryan Wyse: ... all that stuff. Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: A due diligence period and, like, 'cause typical homes, you know, I don't know this stuff as much, but it's 10, 14 days is, like, long. And y- these guys, some of them are, "I want a couple months," or, "I want a longer time than that, then I'll pay you a deposit and then I want a longer close." Or, "I got a short DD, but then I do need a longer close and you can still live there-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... 'cause I don't need this ti- I don't need the house right now. I'm gonna tear it down and you're causing me a problem rather than-
Ryan Wyse: Right
Andrew Hutson: ... giving me a solution."
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, I was wondering if you could take, like for the benefit of, quite honestly, me, but also our listeners, can you take us through the anatomy of a typical development land deal in terms of, say, deposit size, the subject due diligence period, the closing period? Like, what does that look like typically? And again, you know, maybe, like, current market isn't typical, so what would you consider typical and then what does the market look like today in those terms?
Andrew Hutson: You know, it's interesting. There's-- I don't think there's ever been a typical.
Ryan Berlin: Sure.
Andrew Hutson: It's typical for that individual market.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: So when I 1st started, 60 and 60. So 60-day DD, 60-day close, 90-day DD, 90-day close.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: Money was cheap.
Ryan Berlin: Right, yeah.
Andrew Hutson: It's gonna go up in value. Everyone knows this.
Ryan Berlin: So what year would-
Ryan Wyse: So-
Ryan Berlin: What year would that have been?
Ryan Wyse: Just for the sake of listeners, DD is due diligence. [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: Oh, yeah. I already said. [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: What year would that have been?
Andrew Hutson: 2016, 2017 is kind of when I-
Ryan Berlin: Sure. Okay, so this is a very active market.
Andrew Hutson: Active. And-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... like pre-sales is this new phenomenon and there's lineups around blocks-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... and it's, "Whoa, whoa, whoa. It's gonna go up. Come on."
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: "It's gonna go up."
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: "It's been going up forever." And so that was then. Now, I mean, it has slowly transitioned more and more. Now we're talking some groups won't look at it if they don't get subject to re- uh, rezoning or, like, subject to it actually being 4th reading or to a point where it's like there is no more uncertainty.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: Because in markets like this where governments are always changing and the timelines to get these things through, some people have been left been holding the bag, right? They got to 3rd reading, government's changed and they pulled the plug and they said, "Well, now it's not worth anything and I've been sitting on this thing." So with the groups I've been dealing with lately, the bigger ones, especially the ones that can ask-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... and the buyers you're looking for, 'cause when I talk to my clients, it's always buyer profile is almost more important than price 'cause if, if it's one of the big names that we all know-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... I'd much rather have them writing a check at the end of the day than XYZ Corp that I have no idea about if they're-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... gonna be up in smoke in, in no time.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: So 12 months, 18 months DD is very typical, I would suggest.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: Unless it's zoned, then they can get through that zoning piece a little faster 'cause it's bylaws are there. But when it comes to closing, as long as possible is... What do you need? As long as possible.
Ryan Berlin: And so during that DD period, the buyer will get the site or the sites under contract. As the landowner, you, you don't see a dime then for that due diligence period, right?
Andrew Hutson: Correct. And-
Ryan Berlin: And then it's only after that where you might start to see some deposits come in before you ultimately hit, like, that 18-month, 24-month phase.
Andrew Hutson: For sure. And I mean, this is where you get strategic with who they are and what they're asking for.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: And so I've tranched out different DD periods. So it's like, it's a year, but it's actually in 3, 6, and 9-month intervals. And it'll be something like physical. So show me that you did something, and we'll give you more time just 'cause we wanna know you're spending money. We wanna know that you're progressing this thing. You're not buying an option and sitting on it. And this is where it goes back to buyer profile, understanding who's in the market and who's actually buying and who is doing said option. [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: Right. Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: And this is why sometimes when I'm working on the buy side, I am looking for that 'cause it's like we don't know what it's gonna be. And I can act on it pretty quickly, but the only way I'm taking this on right now is if I get some time to work through the market fundamentals that we have to to see where we're at. But yeah, 12 to 18 months, and I've tranched them where you get deposits along the way after certain thresholds.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: So at least there's some money going up and some commitment level.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: But it all depends on who you're dealing with, what the price ultimately is 'cause-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... developer wants... You want a bigger number, they wanna give you less. [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: You wanna take a little less number, we can work things out along the way. Land assemblies are a collaboration. As much as it is adversarial between, like, I want this and I want this, you are working down the same path. And understanding that and knowing that from day one is extremely important 'cause owners, I talk to them day one. It's, "If you are not willing to give time, let's not do this."
Ryan Berlin: Right.
Andrew Hutson: Because if that's not the case, we're wasting everyone's time 'cause there's no one out there right now wanting to do a quick deal for a lot of money with no certainty.
Ryan Berlin: So, so setting of expectations, I guess, on both sides of the deal are super important, as they are in any deal, obviously. But when you're dealing, especially when you're assembling land, you're just dealing with different people, different motivations, different financial factors.
Ryan Wyse: And as a homeowner, like, you have bought and sold homes before but never or probably not ever done a land deal before with a developer. Like, it's a completely different animal.
Andrew Hutson: Completely. And I mean, it, it get- it's interesting when it gets to that 'cause you really have to sit there and educate. Like, it's half the battle.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: And I've been telling a lot of people for the last couple years, like, "I'm not selling land anymore. I'm selling time." Like [laughs] the deal will happen, but only if. [laughs] And if you don't, can't sell the time to somebody, you're not getting a deal across the line.
Ryan Berlin: I just wanna close the loop on-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Ryan Berlin: ... the resale market 'cause we did talk about... You like that hard pivot? [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: [laughs] Have you done this before?
Andrew Hutson: Yeah, yeah, yeah. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: [laughs] This is great.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it's great. Great that you wanna talk about land, but... [laughs] Um, but just, you know, we talked about where sales are at and, and, and, and inventory as well, and what is that doing to prices? Well, how are prices evolving right now?
Ryan Wyse: So prices are generally coming off, but not as much as last year. So benchmark prices, like, on a year-over-year basis, that composite, so the overall market, are down 7%, but on a year-to-date basis, down 1.3%. Detached homes, year over year, down 8, but year to date, less than 2. Town homes, prices have come off the least, minus 6% year over year, but only minus 1.3 year to date. And then condos, 8% year over year, but only 2% this year. So prices came off a lot more last year than they are this year. And again, that tightening of inventory probably a factor. Also, I mean, there's seasonality too. Like, generally, spring sees more price appreciation, so, you know, that can be part of it as well. But certainly, we've seen less price movement this year. Things have kind of-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Ryan Wyse: ... again, I think that stabilizing of inventory has led to more stabilizing of prices.
Ryan Berlin: I think that's a good takeaway from the data because obviously you'll see if, if you're reading about the housing market and you're seeing data published, it's coming fast and furious. And anything that's reported on a year-over-year basis is, is essentially half of 2026 and half of 2025.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: So when we see prices being down by, like for condos down by 8% year over year, it's really important to know that only a quarter of that has been this year. So the, the trajectory of price changes has really changed, even though that headline sort of 12-month number is fairly dramatic.
Ryan Wyse: [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: Like, that's a big number, 8%.
Ryan Wyse: 8%, yeah.
Ryan Berlin: But-
Ryan Wyse: And, and town homes being a little bit different too. So there's some areas where town home prices are up this year.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Wyse: We'll talk more about town homes when we get to new home segment. But again, that's... Detached is sort of the loosest market, the, you know, the most months of inventory available. Condo has the most listings above average.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: And then town homes, that tightest segment.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: Uh, 5.9 months of inventory. It's firmly a balanced market. And then we see in some of these... We talked about it last time as well with Rob, but, um, like Coquitlam, Squamish, South Surrey, Tsawwassen, these suburban lifestyle-
Ryan Berlin: Right
Ryan Wyse: ... relatively affordable town home markets are what people are buying right now in that segment. We're seeing it's tighter, uh, and some actual price appreciation in some of those markets.
Ryan Berlin: Okay, you mentioned the new home market, so let's turn to that. Again, we're rebranding it. We call it the new home market.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, pre-sales.
Ryan Berlin: Formerly the pre-sale market. It's-
Ryan Wyse: Oh, okay
Ryan Berlin: ... I don't know if it's rest in peace, but it's-
Ryan Wyse: [laughs] Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... it's, it's, it's not goodbye, it's see you later to pre-sales, right? So-
Andrew Hutson: Well, this is why I came, so I'm, I'm chiming in for this one. [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: So it's-
Andrew Hutson: It's happening, Ryan. [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: So Q2 was... [laughs] Well, Q... More than Q1.
Ryan Wyse: Yes.
Ryan Berlin: So there was more happening in Q2, at least in terms of sales, than there was in Q1.
Ryan Wyse: Right.
Ryan Berlin: But again, the, the, the longer term context is very important here.
Ryan Wyse: So, you know, again, seasonality at play. Q2 is typically the busiest quarter of the year, so we just surpassed 1,100 multi-family new home sales for, call it Metro Vancouver, a little more like Squamish to Abbotsford. So we're at... We were... We had 900 and something in Q1, so we just... we're just shy of 2,000 new home sales for 6 months of the year. And so that was the fewest sales-
Andrew Hutson: [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: ... of any Q2 since data tracking began-
Andrew Hutson: That sound effect [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: ... in, in 2012. And almost entirely completed condos or under construction condos or town homes.
Andrew Hutson: Wow.
Ryan Wyse: So almost no pre-sales.
Andrew Hutson: Wow.
Ryan Wyse: Um, town homes are actually the highest share. If we break it up, concrete condos-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Ryan Wyse: ... different condos, town homes, town homes accounted for the most sales.
Andrew Hutson: For sure.
Ryan Wyse: So we actually thought that might have been the 1st time. Went back and looked. It's happened 6 times in any quarter in, uh, the history of tracking in this market. If you wanna guess- This is-
Ryan Berlin: 6 quarters. So when do you think-
Ryan Wyse: 6 times townhomes have accounted for the most sales in this region. Wow.
Ryan Berlin: Oh, no pressure. You have to guess when.
Andrew Hutson: Oh, wait. We have to-
Ryan Wyse: One being this most recent quarter.
Andrew Hutson: The last 6, I would guess.
Ryan Wyse: That was Ryan's guess. [laughing] Um, so it's the past 3.
Andrew Hutson: Okay.
Ryan Wyse: And then Roman's guess, which was correct, was 3 quarters in 2020.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: Oh, wow. Okay.
Ryan Wyse: So when everyone wanted space-
Andrew Hutson: Right, right, right, right. Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: And before all the big launches, condo launches in 2021. So 2020 being, like, a complete anomaly here-
Andrew Hutson: Yeah, fair
Ryan Wyse: ... just ignore that for a sec. Uh, it's the past 3 quarters have been all about townhomes.
Ryan Berlin: Because they ha- because the market hasn't been about towers.
Ryan Wyse: Exactly.
Ryan Berlin: I think that's the-
Andrew Hutson: Well, and I think this goes back to our conversation earlier, the options, yeah.
Ryan Wyse: Townhome sales are still slower, but they are where the buyers who are participating-
Andrew Hutson: Yeah
Ryan Wyse: ... which are end users, a lot of upsizers, a few downsizers-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Ryan Wyse: ... like young families-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Ryan Wyse: ... who have a bit of urgency because they had a kid or a se-
Andrew Hutson: And they get to see it now. Yeah.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, absolutely. They're typically, like, they're under construction-
Ryan Berlin: That's a big deal
Ryan Wyse: ... or completed. I mean, townhomes, that's generally been how they've been sold-
Andrew Hutson: For sure
Ryan Wyse: ... for all of time. The other thing, if we look at launches, so there have been 29 launches this year, which is, again, an all-time low for the 1st half of the year. 22 of them have been townhomes.
Andrew Hutson: Whoa.
Ryan Wyse: 6 wood frame condos and one completed concrete building. So there's been no concrete launches. One tower, uh, it's, it's in Richmond, so it's not like a full tower either, but they started [laughing]-
Ryan Berlin: Sheesh. Shade at Richmond there.
Andrew Hutson: They're not, it's the airport. You're not allowed to build tall towers.
Ryan Berlin: And-
Andrew Hutson: Yeah [laughing]
Ryan Berlin: ... unstable ground.
Ryan Wyse: So they just completed construction. They started sales. But there's been no pre-sale launches of concrete towers this year. None. There's been a few wood frame launches, some of those already under construction as well, but there's been 22 townhome projects brought to market.
Andrew Hutson: Wow.
Ryan Wyse: That is where the market is right now.
Andrew Hutson: That concrete tower, did it have any pre-sales prior to that?
Ryan Wyse: No.
Ryan Berlin: They weren't, they weren't selling-
Andrew Hutson: Wow.
Ryan Wyse: And that was their intention right from the start. So that was their, their plan all along. Um, but yeah, so they-
Andrew Hutson: Big risk. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: In this market, that's the only way you're gonna see a new concrete tower-
Ryan Wyse: Right
Ryan Berlin: ... come to market, uh, is as, as finished product, or if the developer, you know, decides to start selling as they start building.
Ryan Wyse: Right.
Ryan Berlin: But we're not gonna see, you know, through the balance of this year, it's very, very unlikely that we're gonna see a true pre-sale launch where some sales or revenue threshold needs to be met before construction starts-
Andrew Hutson: Yeah, wow
Ryan Berlin: ... because it's too difficult right now.
Ryan Wyse: We need to see a lot more inventory get cleared up before anything like that happens. So if we look at where these are, there was 6 of these townhomes were in, like, the Langley, Cloverdale area, 5 in Abbotsford-
Andrew Hutson: Yeah
Ryan Wyse: ... 3 in Coquitlam, all in Burke Mountain, 2 in South Surrey, 2 South Delta, one Squamish, couple in North Van, then one on the west side.
Ryan Berlin: All suburbs.
Ryan Wyse: Other than the-
Andrew Hutson: The south.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, one on the west side.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah, yeah.
Ryan Wyse: And again, it's like-
Andrew Hutson: Yeah, not shocking. Not shocking
Ryan Wyse: ... you know, Squamish, Burke Mountain, it's lifestyle/affordability. They're also, they build them bigger there in Langley too-
Andrew Hutson: Oh, right
Ryan Wyse: ... where you get a larger townhome than you would at, say, Burnaby or on, you know, in a lot of these more urban markets. So there is actually room for that young family.
Andrew Hutson: Right.
Ryan Wyse: For now, that's really where, where buyers, the only buyers participating for the most part, that's what they're doing. And at the same time, there's still a lot of condos under construction and completing. So our completed and unsold inventory tally went from 3,900 at the end of Q1 to 4,200 at the end of Q2. When we started tracking this in late 2024, it was just over 2,000, so it's effectively doubled in a year and a half-
Andrew Hutson: Wow
Ryan Wyse: ... a little under 2 years. And we're forecasting to get over 5,000 somewhere around 2028-
Andrew Hutson: Wow
Ryan Wyse: ... barring a large takeout from the provincial government or, uh-
Ryan Berlin: Or private funds
Ryan Wyse: ... private money.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Yeah, the, the townhome segment is a bright spot-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... right, within this current landscape. The other thing that we have noticed over the past few months is the rental market, the purpose-built rental market has been evolving in a, a way that's been markedly different from the prior couple of years. Like, we've had a couple of years now with just an explosion of new listings, new supply, rents have come off. Obviously, the population declined last year- ... and, and-
Ryan Wyse: And this year, yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... and this, and, and it'll... For, for Metro Vancouver, that'll be the case again 2026 when the year is done. But we are seeing, like, in buildings that are well located, thoughtfully designed, well amenitized, in these lease-ups that we've seen over the past 12 months, they've done really, really well. And we're obviously sitting across the way from Seńáḵw-
Ryan Wyse: Right
Ryan Berlin: ... by Nchkay, which rennie is, is, is leasing up. The 1st tower is more than 50% leased. There's been a, a ton of interest in it. These are market rents, right?
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: So you have people that are seeking, they're looking for certain things in their home, and, and for those buildings that offer it, they are performing really well, especially lately. And so now we're seeing in the advertised listing space, listings have come off month over month now for about 6 months, especially for one and 2 beds, whereas previously it just been, there have been more-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... and more and more of them. Very interestingly, in fully leased buildings, so fairly newly built ones-
Ryan Wyse: Right
Ryan Berlin: ... that are now stabilized, for the available units, we're starting to see on a per square foot basis rents come up now for 3 months. And so that, the, the trend there, that's a definite shift. So we'll, we'll see how long it lasts because, again, the rental market's still dealing with headwinds of lots of new supply that is still coming. The number of rental units under construction is off from its peak by a few 1,000, but it's still relatively high, so there's a lot that will be delivered. And again, the, the demand, at least from a population growth perspective, the demand side of the ledger is a little bit weak.
Ryan Wyse: Right.
Ryan Berlin: Probably will be for the next year or 2. But we're starting to see that, that market evolve and stabilize a little bit.
Ryan Wyse: So I think, like, if we kind of put all these things together, got all this completed and unsold condo inventory, basically no condo launches or very few condo launches happening. We still have a very large pipeline of purpose-built rental under construction, though it has come off. You know, like, all of those things together with the headwinds that Ryan was just talking about, I imagine people aren't clamoring to acquire more land. There's a lot of sites that have already been zoned that just haven't launched yet, or there's a whole bunch of rental sites that were acquired that haven't started construction yet. I imagine the- ... developers aren't particularly eager to add to their land holdings right now, just given where we are in the state of the market.
Andrew Hutson: And, and that's a fair, very fair comment. I mean, s- there are definitely some looking. I think this is the 1st time in my career where people are actually looking. It's just nothing makes sense. Like a year or 2 years ago, it was, "No, I don't want anything. I'm not buying."
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: Like, "Sure, send me stuff, but don't expect me to actually underwrite it or go further than that. It's more to see what's happening." Now you're actually going like, "Oh, I, I would pick up something, but it's got a pencil, and it's gotta be in a fantastic location, and I gotta get a lot of time."
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: And you go, "Well, those don't exist."
Ryan Wyse: Right.
Andrew Hutson: So I'll do it. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: Rents are lower, costs are higher, fees are higher.
Andrew Hutson: And the expectations I need are 2, 3 years of a deal timeline to-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... even begin to think about papering something. And with those, we are still facing headwinds. So that's today. What if in 6 months they go, like, "I gotta get a price reduction or walk away"?
Ryan Wyse: So-
Andrew Hutson: So very challenging times
Ryan Wyse: ... and of those who are looking, are they primarily looking at rental, or are they considering condo sites?
Andrew Hutson: You know, I alluded to this, but there's areas where you wanted something different. You don't want a condo tower. That's just not what you want. You want something in a new location. You don't want another Cambie Corridor one, 'cause that's been flogged to death, and now you have to be very mindful of where pricing comes in. So you're looking for new nodes where it's possible, and that's where the challenge comes in, is with the policies in place by, you know, Vancouver standards, for example, anything in a TOA, if you build a strata building, you need social housing.
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: Social housing policies do not work. If you have one, no one will ever build, and, and I, I hold myself to this right now, no one will ever build a social housing component in their strata building. It just, it won't make sense, 'cause one, you have now gifting this to the city, where you have no idea who they're gifting it to, and that's a big red flag for someone who's now buying a, you know-
Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... very expensive unit. And it just doesn't make financials work on that because that's 20% of your building you have to-
Ryan Berlin: Where you're subsidizing it, yeah.
Andrew Hutson: You're subsidizing.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: And building it and giving it away is, it just doesn't work. So when you look at where there are potential strata projects, there aren't any in Vancouver, for example, that make any kind of realizable sense, because there's so much potential, but a lot of it either has some level of hair on it, heritage, in a tower zone, so pricing expectations are wonky. TRPP, so tenant rela- relocation protection policy, very onerous, so any of these old rental buildings will not move in them for a long time. So you see all this. Like, I think there would be a couple groups that would look at, you know, a more boutique, smaller-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... 50-unit building where it's, I don't have to sell 300, but where can you get that? It just doesn't really exist today. And so it's challenging to find those needles in a haystack-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... in a market that just doesn't have that potential. We've done Broadway Plan. We've done Rupert Renfrew Plan. It's mostly towers. It's mostly rental, where it even remotely makes sense, and those markets don't make sense anymore.
Ryan Berlin: So where we wouldn't have seen towers is in the Villages plan.
Andrew Hutson: You wouldn't have seen towers in the Villages plan. I mean, that's, uh, it, that one was exactly what I was getting, gonna allude to with the-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... condos, is they were gonna have this new zoning, R3 4 and, uh, S- C2, which is a w- widely recognized zone across major arterial roads around the city, which would have allowed 2 different options for strata. And in quiet neighborhoods, there they would have had 4 to 6-story typologies. Everyone thinks it would have been, oh, this new land rush. No, it would have been 5 or 6 projects that could have worked in unique neighborhoods, but that got kiboshed a week and a half ago or a week ago.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: And it, not further consultation, but it's dead.
Ryan Wyse: Brought it entirely.
Andrew Hutson: So when it's dead, you kind of go look at the future policies that are coming, and you're kind of going-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... we're 2, 3 years out from feedback, consultation, and working through something, so you gotta deal with what we got. And what we got was a lot of policy surrounded around rental.
Ryan Berlin: So before we wrap up here, I just wanna ask you one question. Some, I don't know if it's, it falls in the category of advice per se, but where do you see opportunities in the market for landowners or for developers over the next 12 to 18 months? What's your view on that?
Andrew Hutson: It's pretty pessimistic. I mean, I don't think there's much out there right now. When you're looking at it, if you're a vendor, you need to be going, "Okay, I'm willing to sell, and I'm willing to give time to maybe eke out what I would get, wouldn't get on the open market and maybe a bit more, but certainly not this land rush of the old days-"
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... "where I'm getting 4 times or 5 times or X millions of dollars over." And then you'd need a couple of those. So it's very challenging to find sites that actually work. From the development side, if you can find that, something out there, you're gonna get some time. Like, and I have a few deals under contract. There's few and far between for the big stuff, but they're long timelines. Like, I wrote them a year ago, and they're not gonna close till '28, '29-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... because there's that time involved, and we've worked out deals where they're gonna get some money along the way. But in terms of, like, prime time opportunities, where everyone's looking is for this townhouse product-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... that is massively oversaturated from years ago. Like Surrey, the amount of court order sales that are happening, that's where you're gonna find a deal. But now you have to take on someone else's problem.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: And if you don't know how far along they are, and you have to deal with the court order process. So I really don't know if there's anything that's a, oh, like, hunt there-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... or do that for the next year, at least. And until one of these pre-sale launches comes out and it does well, or there's a new policy that comes in a n- a neighborhood that hasn't had one where there's low-rise potential of a strata project, and again, in unison with a good launch nearby [laughs] that-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... that makes you want to believe-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... that that is possible, 'cause if you don't have to, you're not.
Ryan Berlin: Right.
Ryan Wyse: Right.
Andrew Hutson: There, there's no reason to jump in the market now. You're waiting to see where we actually stop and where an opportunity comes, 'cause there are projects that are half built-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... that are getting court ordered sales now, and people are taking those on because it's a smoking deal. It just depends on where you are yourself in the market.
Ryan Berlin: So it's just a matter, probably for everybody then, it's a matter of keeping your eyes and your ears open because these opportunities aren't leaping off the page at-
Andrew Hutson: Well, and it's, it's-
Ryan Berlin: ... this point.
Andrew Hutson: That you say that, like, so I talk to a lot of developers all the time. They're like, "You know what? Like a year ago, 2 years ago, in prime time, I would get-" ... 10, 15 kind of opportunities every week or 2 weeks.
Ryan Berlin: Hmm.
Andrew Hutson: I haven't got any in the last 3 months. Like, no one's sent me anything 'cause-
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm
Andrew Hutson: ... if they send me something, it's some... Okay, that's not really a... That's not a legitimate site. That's just you flying out numbers and hoping.
Ryan Berlin: [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: So the fact that the, even the, my comp- competitors, a lot of them have pivoted to something else, and I'm pivoting. I've just sold a multifamily building. I'm looking at multiplex lots and duplex lots 'cause you have to.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: 'Cause if you're solely focused on land, trying to find the next best deal that's gonna happen, you're not getting paid anytime soon, if it happens at all.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: I have one deal that I did in, what is it, 3 year- two and a half years ago now. We just extended for the 4th time with the 2nd price reduction in as many months.
Ryan Wyse: Wow.
Andrew Hutson: Just trying to get-
Ryan Berlin: [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: And I'm... You gotta do it, man. Like, if you don't do this, we go back out there-
Ryan Berlin: Right
Andrew Hutson: ... and we're done.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: It's like-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: [laughs] They've at least spent money and time, and if we're at least have some chance here of getting this done.
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: If we don't do this, are you okay to wait 5 years? Are you will- wait a couple years?
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: 'Cause I, I can't promise you, and I'd, I'd be expecting that because if we're not doing it today, you're in trouble.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: So-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... s- I- if I were you, I'd sign. [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: And they take those deals and they keep pushing them on just to keep them alive, and that's where it goes back to that team mentality of collaboration. Like, we are going to the same goal. It's not pretty for anybody [laughs]-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... but if we're gonna get there-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... we have to figure out how we're gonna work together to get it done.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Patience, that's what this market is all about right now. We have a question from a listener, Grace, in Port Moody.
Listener Question: Hi, Ryan and Ryan. This is Grace from Port Moody, BC. I recently inherited an older house, and I'm getting all kinds of advice. Some people say to sell it as a house, while others say it's really the land that's valuable. So my question is, does it make a difference in who wants to buy it and who I hire to sell it? Appreciate your time. Thanks.
Ryan Berlin: Would you sell her house?
Andrew Hutson: Definitely. Um-
Ryan Berlin: Who'd you sell it to?
Andrew Hutson: I think these are the ones where it... This is like the world we're in today, right? You gotta be, put on your thinking cap and do a little bit more of marketing. There's no one buyer potentially 'cause you don't know who's gonna come.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: So you're definitely doing both. You're building a brochure for a land piece.
Ryan Berlin: Ah, okay.
Andrew Hutson: And then you're building a piece for a home piece.
Ryan Wyse: Right.
Ryan Berlin: What does the listing look like in that, in this case?
Ryan Wyse: I suppose it matters, like, where it is. Is it in a TOA area?
Andrew Hutson: Well, exactly.
Ryan Wyse: Condition of the home, like, I'm sure you have to factor all that stuff in.
Ryan Berlin: But do you pick, do you, do you pick a pa- Like, for the actual listing, do you sort of-
Ryan Wyse: Yeah
Ryan Berlin: ... position that for both types of buyers?
Andrew Hutson: This is typically something I wouldn't do. And, like, when I do my listings, they're usually exclusive. There's usually a big marketing package that we do with our team here and put it all together.
Ryan Berlin: Sure.
Andrew Hutson: Keep it exclusive so there's no price. I can guide the market accordingly, shift and pivot as needed. With something like this, 1st thing I always do is look at the policy. Is there something in there that means there could be something else?
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: And then is the neighboring properties make it make sense as a bigger scale development?
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: If that's possible, then there's a conversation with the owner saying, "What's your timeline? What's your needs?" 'Cause if you want it done-
Ryan Berlin: Sure
Andrew Hutson: ... tomorrow, this is an assembly. It's a, a deal. And do you... Are you okay with open houses? Some people are a little funky about that-
Ryan Berlin: Yeah
Andrew Hutson: ... kind of stuff. I would then partner with a residential agent, and I've done this lots where I go and say, "You do the house part."
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: "I'll do the, the brokerage part, and I'll go to my connections via my outlets, and you go through the MLS and do the normal rigamarole of doing open houses and appointments. And then my brochure is a totally d- separate entity that goes out to a different channel of people."
Ryan Berlin: This is like the, a new iteration of Love It or List It, right?
Andrew Hutson: Mm-hmm.
Ryan Berlin: With the commercial broker-
Ryan Wyse: [laughs]
Ryan Berlin: ... and the residential realtor-
Andrew Hutson: For sure
Ryan Berlin: ... and who can get the deal.
Andrew Hutson: Well, I've partnered with many because you, you don't know. And sometimes it comes where someone says, "I love the cherry tree in the back," or, "I love-"
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: "... whatever reason. Okay, I'll do it."
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: Or, "My mom lived here 40 years ago." Great.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: But more often than not in this market, you're probably getting someone coming going, "Okay, it's worth the dirt. I'll pay you tomorrow cash because it's worth this, and I'm gonna tear it down anyways, and I don't care."
Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Hutson: Or you're getting someone that I know that wants... will pay a bit more, but a bit more time.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: And are you willing to take that? And then it depends on the listener's ideologies of what they want. Certainty is, is not a bad thing in today's world. And if I was telling you, I'd probably take the cash sooner than later from a cash buyer that was ready to go.
Ryan Berlin: Okay, finally, uh, last word of advice for our listeners.
Andrew Hutson: Well, if you're an agent and you're doing land assembly and you're having challenge, give me a call. For anyone else, stay out of the game if you don't know what you're doing 'cause it's a challenge. We got lots of people out there doing it already that probably shouldn't be. And in a challenging market, you're not helping the situation right now. [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: [laughs] That might have been too-
Ryan Berlin: That was very frank.
Ryan Wyse: Yeah, I was gonna say-
Ryan Berlin: I think-
Ryan Wyse: ... maybe cut that out. [laughs]
Andrew Hutson: [laughs]
Ryan Wyse: That was authenticity right there.
Ryan Berlin: Yeah.
Andrew Hutson: You, you see the people I run into, I'm like, "Buddies-"
Ryan Berlin: Get the fuck out of the way.
Andrew Hutson: [laughs] You want 9$ million for your 33-footer in Rupert?
Ryan Berlin: If someone did wanna get in touch with you, what's the best way to reach you?
Andrew Hutson: Always phone. Um, phone's always on. 604-339-4272 or email, ahutson, H-U-T as in Tom, [email protected].
Ryan Berlin: Awesome. Andrew, it's been really enjoyable to have this conversation with you. Thanks for being here.
Andrew Hutson: Oh, wonderful.
Ryan Wyse: Oh, thanks.
Andrew Hutson: Thanks, gentlemen. Been a pleasure. [instrumental music]
Thank you for joining us on the Rennie Podcast. If you'd like to learn more or to subscribe to intelligence updates, go to rennie.com/intelligence.
